South Africa Keywords:, ANC. socio-economic development, reforms, inequality, political system, foreign policy

In April 2012, the Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences, together with the Center for African Studies of the Institute of General History of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Committee for the Celebration of the 100th anniversary of the African National Congress (ANC), held an international conference dedicated to the centenary of the Congress. Despite the lively discussion, the event gave the impression that some topics related to the modern history of the ANC, which has been in power for almost 19 years, remained unsolved.

At the end of the anniversary year for the APK, the staff of the Center for Southern African Studies (CIS SA) held a round table on the topic:: "Contemporary ANC Politics: A Critical Reflection" with a focus on discussing a number of the most pressing issues of contemporary development of South African society, in particular in the period after Jacob Zuma came to power.

At the beginning of the meeting, general issues of political and socio-economic development of modern South Africa were discussed. In his speech, Yu. S. Skubko, Ph. D. in Economics, Senior Researcher at CIS UA, noted that South Africa, first of all, compares favorably with most countries of the continent by the strength of democratic institutions, the presence of a developed civil society, independent media and courts. In his opinion, the undoubted merit of the ANC is that this legacy is developing.

The speaker explains the growing social inequality in South Africa, inherited from colonialism and apartheid and exacerbated by the economic development model chosen by the ANC leadership. At the same time, he noted a slight decrease in the previously achieved scientific, technical and industrial potential.

As you know, the ideas of neoliberal capitalism formed the basis of the GEAR (Growth, Employment and Redistribution) macroeconomic strategy of 1996. This meant the gradual privatization and commercialization of state-owned enterprises and public services, the removal of the state from controlling positions in the economy, and a sharp reduction in social spending. However, the direct consequence of this course was an increase in unemployment and increased inequality. Today, South Africa ranks first in the world in terms of inequality ¹.

The speaker noted that when the ANC came to power in 1994, a number of key provisions of the "Charter of Freedom" (the main document, a kind of constitution of the ANC) gradually disappeared from the economic policy of the new government, first of all, the provisions on the nationalization of natural resources, key sectors of the economy and finance. In the event of nationalization, a large share of the natural rent would go to the state, allowing it to carry out major economic transformations in the interests of the disadvantaged majority without much upheaval. However, this went against Pretoria's chosen macroeconomic policy of neoliberal capitalism.

According to Yu. S. Skubko, the ANC cannot nationalize the industry now because of the lack of qualified personnel and the degradation of the state apparatus. The new class of African managers that has emerged thanks to the Black Economic Empowerment policy (BEE) is very similar to the class of Russian managers: they are of little professional use and are concerned with budget cuts and corruption kickbacks. According to the level of corruption, South Africa annually "slides" down in the scale of the international agency "Transparency International" (only in the last two years-from 54th to 69th place).².

Yu. S. Skubko expressed concern that the party, which has been in power for several decades, inevitably begins to grow together with the state, i.e. many party members consider it as their integral patrimony. This suggests that the ANC may split in the future, or it may split into different factions.

G. V. Shubin, Ph. D. in History, Senior Researcher of the CIS UA, spoke in the framework of the discussion on the state of the armed forces of South Africa. In his opinion, the South African land army is losing its combat readiness, primarily due to underfunding. The combat readiness of the country's Air Force and Navy is higher, but it can also be called relative.

For example, in 2010, it was reported that the newest submarine of the South African Navy "Mantatisi" failed when one of the crew members inserted an electric razor into the wrong outlet, as a result of which the fuses blew out, and there was a need to replace the batteries. This story took place in 2007, but has only now surfaced thanks to a parliamentary request from the opposition. As it turned out, "Mantatisi", manufactured in shipyards in Germany, all this time is outside the combat forces of the Navy. At first, it took a year and a half for the delivery from Germany and the installation of new units to replace the failed ones, then someone incorrectly connected the electrical wires, and the electrical networks were again disabled. Now the submarine, which was launched just five years ago, will have to undergo major repairs.

The speaker also noted that the loss of combat readiness can not but be alarming, since there is no-

some Western countries may well use the "Libyan option" to seize the most important deposits in South Africa and control their export routes.

A. A. Arkhangelskaya, a researcher at the CIS UA, Ph. D. in History, said in her speech that since 1994, the foreign policy goals and objectives have not changed significantly - South Africa has been pursuing a consistent foreign policy. Human rights, democratic principles, and adherence to the principles of international law are its determining principles.

The speaker noted that the formation of the modern foreign policy course of South Africa was significantly facilitated by the fact that the struggle of the African National Congress against the apartheid regime was supported by the international community, which meant extensive international contacts of ANC leaders and functionaries, who by the time they came to power had already gained rich experience in foreign policy activities and were

Analyzing the foreign economic relations of South Africa, A. A. Arkhangelskaya noted that they have always been a priority for the South African economy. The main trading partners of South Africa have traditionally been the United States and the European Union (EU), and among its members, first of all, the United Kingdom and Germany. However, in recent years, China has taken the lead. In 2010, imports from China accounted for 14.4% of South Africa's total imports. At the same time, China ranks 1st in terms of exports from South Africa (11.3% in 2010). Among the BRICS countries, India is also among the top ten countries in terms of exports and imports to South Africa. In the context of the global crisis, the reduction in consumption of imported goods due to a decrease in effective demand led to a reduction in the trade deficit of South Africa.

It is important, from the point of view of the speaker, that the political leadership of South Africa considers the African continent, and especially the South African region, to be a priority area for itself. South Africa is an active member of the South African Development Community (SADC), and its then President, T. Mbeki, was the first Chairman of the African Union (AU) that succeeded the OAU, whose creation was supported by his vision of an "African Renaissance" and participation in the development of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD).

Not everyone in Africa, A. A. Arkhangelskaya noted, agrees to consider South Africa the leader of the continent. However, the recent election of N. Dlamini-Zuma (who was South Africa's Foreign Minister for several years) as Chairman of the AU Commission, in her opinion, confirms the opposite. In addition, working within the AU and SADC, the South African leadership plays a special role in resolving the economic crisis in neighboring Zimbabwe. South Africa's approach to resolving this crisis is indicative of its commitment to the proclaimed principles of international law and its rejection of" regime change " under external pressure.

The main characteristic element of South Africa's foreign policy at the present stage was the country's accession to the BRIC in 2011, after which the bloc became known as BRICS. This introduction corresponded to the general concept of the development of the foreign policy strategy outlined in the early 1990s. The admission of South Africa to this group reflects the growing attention of the world community to the problems of Africa in recent years. The continent is becoming particularly important due to the growing economic problems in the world. Africa is becoming a zone of strategic interests for new power poles. Thus, BRICS cooperation with the countries of the African continent, both separately and as an association, is an important area of their foreign policy activity. So, in the last decade, there has been a surge in economic and political activity in China and India, as well as Brazil on the continent. The inclusion of South Africa in the club confirms the importance of the African component in the modern system of international relations.

South Africa's accession to BRICS calls for further activation of Russia's foreign policy in the African direction. South Africa's weight on the world stage is growing - it is already acting as a donor, which gives grounds for criticism about the correctness of its priorities in the face of unresolved internal socio-economic problems, and allocates funds to support the EU and Palestine.

E. R. Salakhetdinov, PhD student at the IAfr RAS, PhD candidate at the Center for Scientific Information and International Relations, presented a report on relations between South Africa and Zimbabwe.

Describing the historical outline of relations between the two countries, as well as the background and course of the Zimbabwean crisis, E. R. Salakhetdinov noted that the mediation of South Africa helped to minimize its consequences, if not resolve it. At the same time, South Africa, which has repeatedly taken the initiative in resolving the crisis in Zimbabwe into its own hands, was guided not only by humanitarian considerations: it sought to prevent a complete collapse of the Zimbabwean economy, since it would be fraught with significant financial losses from reducing trade ties. For example, South Africa received significant revenues from the transit of goods from Zimbabwe to its ports.

The influx of illegal migrants from Zimbabwe (according to some estimates, there are about 3 million of them in South Africa) ³ has had a negative impact on the internal political situation in South Africa. Extensive migration has worsened the criminal situation and provoked conflicts based on competition for jobs. This led to an upsurge in violence against migrants in 2008, when the South African Government was forced to deploy an army in cities for the first time since the collapse of apartheid to quell unrest.

E. R. Salakhetdinov noted that South Africa retains a leading role in overcoming the Zimbabwean crisis. Since the early 2000s, South Africa, on behalf of SADC and the AU, has been acting as a mediator in negotiations between the Government of Zimbabwe and the opposition.

this process is constantly increasing. During the economic crisis in Zimbabwe, South Africa organized food and humanitarian supplies to the country. In September 2008, through Pretoria's mediation, the warring parties to the conflict, represented by the President's ZANU-PF party and the opposition MDC-T and MDC-M, signed the Global Political Agreement⁴. This agreement was the first step in overcoming the economic and domestic political crisis.

In January 2009, at an extraordinary meeting of the SADC in Pretoria, a plan to restore Zimbabwe's economy was adopted at the initiative of South Africa. E. R. Salakhetdinov drew attention to the fact that the EU and the United States, sharply critical of the Mugabe regime, have repeatedly condemned South Africa's "quiet diplomacy", its excessively "soft" position towards Zimbabwe. to Zimbabwe.

The attitude to the Zimbabwean problem is also ambiguous within the ANC itself. So, one of the South African diplomats very cautiously expressed his disagreement with the policy of R. Mugabe: "We are in favor of land redistribution, but we do not agree with the redistribution process." However, there are supporters of Mugabe's policies in South Africa, such as the former chairman of the ANC Youth League, Julius Malema, who has repeatedly expressed support for Mugabe's regime.

E. R. Salakhetdinov noted that the role of South Africa and the ANC leaders in overcoming the crisis in Zimbabwe is extremely high. Today, the Zimbabwean direction of South Africa's foreign policy is overseen by a special group created by South African President J. R. R. Tolkien. Zuma. The panel included Lindiwe Zulu, the South African President's international affairs adviser, and Charles Nqakula, the President's political adviser.

According to the speaker, the tangle of contradictions in Zimbabwe is not completely unraveled, and the Zimbabwean problem will be one of the key foreign policy challenges for South Africa and its leaders for many years to come.

In his speech, A.D. Khamatshin, PhD student at the Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences, focused on the analysis of the land reform in South Africa. He noted that in 1994, 87% of agricultural land was owned by Whites, who made up less than 14% of the South African population. Initially, it was planned to redistribute 30% (24.6 million hectares) of land from white to black in five years, but this deadline was postponed first to 2014, and then to 2025. As a result, only about 8 million ha of land was redistributed over 18 ^years5.

Article 25 of the 1996 Constitution confirms the rights to property acquired under previous regimes and promises land reform to previously disadvantaged groups. Land redistribution was supposed to be carried out according to the rule of voluntary purchase and sale at the full market price. Those interested can also apply for land restitution. These programs are insufficiently funded, and priority is given to land reform only at the level of rhetoric. However, the issue needs to be resolved. According to polls, 2/3 of Africans are in favor of returning the land, regardless of the consequences for political stability in the country. Naturally, 90% of whites disagree with this thesis.⁶ On the other hand, the ANC government constantly manages to delay the completion of the reform, largely due to the absence of a real opposition force in the country that would advocate for the earliest possible redistribution of land.

At the same time, according to A.D. Khamatshin, the policy in the field of agrarian and land reform continues to be contradictory. On the one hand, there is a desire to implement social policies to reduce poverty through redistribution in favor of landless peasants. On the other hand, land reform has always been aimed at market integration and expansion of agricultural production, with an emphasis on the productivity of those owners who show a more competitive and liberal economic approach to land use. The combination of these two approaches has led to contradictions and inconsistencies in the very policy of land reform in South Africa.

In conclusion, the speaker added that the Green Paper on Land Reform prepared by the Government by the end of 2011 did not clarify the Government's future approach.

At the beginning of the report on the ANC's policy towards one of the fastest growing groups of the South African population - poor Afrikaner people - M. Sc. CIS YUA, PhD student of the Institute of Africa V. V. Kruchinsky quoted the South African writer and journalist Max Du Pre. Commenting on the August 2012 meeting between representatives of the ANC and the Afrikaner farming community, Du Pre said, among other things:: "There is no longer such a phenomenon as the Afrikaner archetype. There is no longer a single political force that represents only Afrikaners; today Afrikaners are just a linguistic group. " ⁷

The speaker noted that at the moment the ANC does not have any clearly formulated approaches to contacts with the Afrikaner community. This, according to V. V. Kruchinsky, is the political line of the ANC towards Afrikaners, including the poor. He referred to the unspoken pact that accompanied the transfer of power to the majority in South Africa, according to which the white and, in particular, Afrikaner community was removed from political influence, but retained economic.

At the same time, the" liberation " of white capital went hand in hand with the ever-accelerating marginalization of a part of the Afrikaner community. Although since 1994 there has been a tendency to reduce economic inequality between individual racial groups (primarily due to the rapid growth of the share of the black bourgeoisie in statistical calculations), inequality is growing within these groups. ⁸ V. V. Kruchinsky noted that statistical inequality between groups is decreasing, firstly, due to the rapid growth of the African bourgeoisie. middle class, and secondly, due to the rapid marginalization of the population.-

some groups of the white population, primarily Afrikaners.

The speaker did not elaborate on the causes and mechanics of this marginalization, but noted that it is a complex phenomenon, the explanation of which is by no means limited to the traditional bogeymen in the form of affirmative action and Black Economic Empowerment policies. One way or another, unable to adapt to the new neoliberal conditions (not least dictated by representatives of their own people), many Afrikaners (according to bold estimates - up to a third of the entire Afrikaner population) joined the ranks of the most socially vulnerable group.

At the same time, in the appeals of ANC representatives to poor Afrikaners (most often-during meetings held during the election season as part of national campaigns-in fact, it is the visit of J. P. Blavatsky and others).According to V. V. Kruchinsky, we are dealing with the same paternalistic discourse as during pre-election rallies, for example, in Soweto - in contrast to the partner discourse of meetings with business representatives- communities or farmers.

It is noteworthy that the ANC does not fundamentally single out a group of poor whites and does not develop any special policy towards them. This is partly due to the fact that this group has not yet defined itself either politically or economically (based on sources and his own fieldwork, V. V. Kruchinsky claims that a significant number of poor Afrikaners consider their current situation as temporary and expect to correct it soon - through external assistance, whether it is a government grant or NGO assistance.

The analysis of the problematic aspects of the development of South African society was provoked, among other things, by the tragic events in South Africa in August 2012, when 44 people (including 34 workers) were shot dead by police during a spontaneous strike of miners at the Lonmin platinum mine in the town of Marikana.

D. A. Zelenova, Ph. D. in Political Science, M. Sc. CIS UA, noted that the tragedy in Marikana is an unprecedented act of state violence against the civilian population in the modern South Africa. The brutal actions of the police provoked a powerful wave of intellectual reflection on the legitimacy of the ANC and the stability of the country's political system. According to many South Africans, after the shooting of striking miners, South Africa is already a different country.

Referring to the latest research on social protests, she stressed that South Africa remains the country with perhaps the highest level of protest actions in the world - about 8 thousand people. protests per year. Despite the impressive scale of housing construction, a well-developed system of state subsidies and some other obvious achievements made by the ANC government in recent years, the level of inequality in the country has increased by objective indicators, and poverty has become more obvious, especially in cities where poverty is adjacent to luxury.

This state of affairs is causing well-founded discontent among the growing class of the poor. In this situation, it is quite significant that the workers of the Lonmin Corporation, along with the demand for higher wages, spoke about the need for a more equitable distribution of wealth in the country, and the prolonged conflict between the National Union of Miners and Miners indicates the crisis of old institutions that are unable to express and defend the interests of workers.

As for the protests, the regular outbreaks of protests in informal settlements and townships, which are called "rebellion of the poor" for a reason in the South African press, attract more schoolchildren and unemployed youth and are accompanied by an escalation of violence on both sides - the protesters and the police, who often behave unreasonably violently. Recent research by the Center for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation has shown that one of the key factors determining the level of violence is unprofessional police behavior.⁹ In several regions, the police exceeded their authority, provoking counter-aggression. Official reports for 2010, for example, recorded 1,769 deaths as a result of police carelessness.¹⁰

According to the speaker, the mass shooting of miners in Marikana is not an accidental episode, but the culmination of a series of attacks against peaceful demonstrators that continued throughout the entire term of President Zuma. According to D. A. Zelenova, the escalation of state violence is explained, in particular, by the fact that the president, having declared war on crime, re-armed the police and gave them the right to use live ammunition in operations against alleged criminals (see the Law on Police of 2011), which turned into a tragedy for at least 20 demonstrators who died from the violence. police bullets in 2011 ¹¹

While the official investigation of the events in Marikana is underway, Cyril Ramaposa, Deputy President of the ANC and until January 2013 a member of the Board of Directors of the Lonmin campaign, has already received a bad name. For his statement-in private correspondence leading up to the August 16 shooting-he called for the workers who went on strike to be dealt with as soon as possible, calling them "criminals."¹²

Professor of the National Research University-Higher School of Economics and Distinguished Professor of the University of KwaZulu Natal (South Africa) I. I. Filatova in her speech noted that after the shooting of miners in Marikana, the ANC, and the whole country, entered a new period. The decline in the influence of COSATU (Congress of South African Trade Unions) among the miners is a significant phenomenon for the ANC, because it is the trade unions that have always provided the ruling party with its mass base and self-identification as a representative of the exploited and oppressed

the black majority. An alternative trade union cannot be ruled out. In South Africa, this can lead to the collapse of the entire existing system of government.

Irina Filatova spoke about several unfavorable trends in the current situation of the ANC. One of them is the increasing internal party struggle of clans associated with different business interests, competition for contracts and partnerships in the BEE system. This fight is so tough that it comes to killing.

Another trend is a clear strengthening of the ethnic element within the ANC. In the last election, the number of votes that the party won increased only in KwaZulu-Natal. Almost all the top government posts related to security went to the Zulus. Recently, there have been publications that discuss the alleged plans of the KwaZulu-Natal provincial leadership to prevent the transfer of power after the rule of J. R. R. Tolkien. Zuma to anyone who does not belong to this narrow circle of people.

A new trend that has emerged since Marikana is the willingness to resort to force in relation to social protests. At the same time, the Government remains unable to resist populist demands and slogans and meet even the most unrealistic demands of trade unions, contrary to the logic of the country's economic realities. Julius Malema was expelled from the party, but his populist line was adopted.

The speaker expressed disagreement with the assessments of some speakers, which primarily concerned methods of combating poverty. In her opinion, the proposed "simple" solutions, such as the nationalization of the mining industry and land provided for in the Freedom Charter, would lead to disastrous results for the country. Neither at the beginning of the ANC's rule, nor now, does the Congress have the personnel that could cope with the task of managing the mines, nor the experience, nor the capital to do so. The experience of state regulation, for example, in the field of energy supply, led to a shortage of electricity and a catastrophic increase in prices for it, which immediately and negatively affected the growth rate of the economy. As for the mining industry, the government's tightening of its regulation (charters, revision of mining licenses, etc.) has so far only led to capital outflows and the fact that South Africa has "missed" the boom in this area.

It's the same with earth. The transfer of productive farms to those who have neither the capital nor the skills to conduct large-scale commercial production can only mean turning them into small subsistence farms. This, of course, will feed those who manage this farm in a good year, but it will put the rest of the country in a situation of food crisis.

Russia, Filatova said, went through an era of "simple" solutions to the problem of poverty in the first half of the last century. Everyone knows what this led to.

The ANC had and still has reserves to fight unemployment and poverty - first of all, improving the education system, conducting a mass campaign of public works, liberalizing labor legislation, etc. But the party does not use them, preferring to plug the holes with grants, annual unjustified wage increases that are many times higher than inflation, and other populist measures. However, the country's budget is not infinite, the number of taxpayers is falling, and if the system of patronage introduced by the ANC is not changed, its collapse is inevitable.

* * *

Summing up the results of the round table, we can say that in general, its participants agree that the ANC is currently experiencing an extremely important moment in its political development. During the discussions, the speakers identified a number of disturbing trends that could affect the future of the party and affect its institutional foundations.

In addition, the participants of the discussion noted that the ANC actively responds to the aggravation of political contradictions and corruption scandals of recent times, advocating for solving the problems of poverty, unemployment, and inequality. At the same time, the ANC is currently the most consolidated and stable force on the political map of South Africa.

The review was prepared by V. V. KRUCHINSKY, post-graduate student and L. A. ZELENOVA, Candidate of Political Sciences, IAfr RAS

¹ The World Bank Development Indicators 2012 // World Bank. 2012.

² Transparency International Worldwide Corruption Index 2012 - http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2012/

^{Tevera D.S., Zinyama L.} 3 Zimbabweans Who Move: Perspectives on International Migration in Zimbabwe - http://www.queensu.ca/samp/sampresources/samppublications/policyseries/Acrobat25.pdf

⁴ By then, the MDC opposition party is splitting into two formations: MDC-T (Movement for Democratic Change-Tsvangirai) and MDC-M (Movement for Democratic Change - Mutambara).

^{Cousins B.} 5 Land Redistribution: Part of a Wider Agrarian Reform Strategy // Umhlaba Wethu. 2012, N 15, p. 2 - 3.

^{Gibson J.L.} 6 Overcoming Historical Injustices: Land Reconciliation in South Africa. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009.

⁷ http://mg.co.za/article/2012-06-06-ancs-afrikaner-charm-offen-sive-slammed

⁸ Van Der Berg 5. Current poverty and income distribution in the context of South African History // Stellenbosch Economic Working Papers. 2010. Vol. 22. N 10.

⁹ http://www.csvr.org.7.a/docs/UseOfForcePolicy_Workshop Reportjuly2011.pdf

¹⁰ Data from the State Independent Police Authority of South Africa 2010 report - http://www.ipid.gov.ru/documents/annualreports.asp11.pdf. See also - http://iTig.co.za/article/2011-04-15-protesters-death-not-an-isolated-casc

¹¹ See, for example: Bruce D. The Road to Marikana: Abuses of Force During Public Order Policing Operations. Available at http://www.sacsis.org.za/site/article/1455

¹² http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/24/lonmin-emails-anc-elder-baron

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