I. O. ABRAMOVA, Doctor of Economics

L. L. FITUNI, Doctor of Economics

Institute of Africa, Russian Academy of Sciences

Keywords: Africa, fuel and energy complex, struggle for resources, Russian interests

The processes of globalization are turning the struggle for African resources into a global problem, which cannot but be of interest to Russia, which in recent years has been gradually restoring the positions lost with the collapse of the USSR on the continent, and therefore inevitably gets involved in this new struggle. The clash of interests of various States in Africa has ambiguous consequences for the countries of the continent. On the one hand, African countries can benefit from the confrontation of the "powerful" by securing more favorable conditions for aid and investment. On the other hand, possible conflict situations are fraught with a threat to African security. The demand for natural resources continues to increase. Meanwhile, oil, natural gas, metals and minerals are being depleted, and by 2020 global production could fall below the level needed to meet international demand, potentially triggering new conflicts.

ENERGY SCARCITY AND AFRICAN COUNTRIES

The growth of the world's population and the development of the global economy are accompanied by a growing demand for energy resources. At the beginning of the 21st century, oil accounted for 40% of the total world energy consumption, coal - 27%, gas - 23%, nuclear "fuel" - 7%, and other types-3%.1

A number of analysts predict the inevitable future shortage of these types of energy raw materials in the world economy.

There are two sets of reasons that confirm such expectations. This is, firstly, the growth of the world's population (and the associated inevitable quantitative increase in energy consumption for the usual needs of the population and the national economy) and, secondly, the rapid development of the economies of a number of large developing countries, in which energy consumption per capita has increased dramatically.

That is why the importance of the African continent's hydrocarbon resources is taking on some new aspects for the global economy.

In the 2000s, the attractiveness of the African continent, primarily sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as an investment destination in the fuel and energy sector, increased significantly. This is due to a number of factors.

The main consumers of the world's hydrocarbon resources-Western countries and China-assume that the military-political and geostrategic risks in shifting the sources of sustainable supply of their economies with oil and natural gas from the Middle East, North Africa (for the West, add "and Russia") in the direction of sub-Saharan Africa, they will decrease. Such approaches are related both to the consequences of the so-called "Arab Spring" and to recent events in Ukraine. The United States and the EU will strive to maximize the diversification of energy supplies, using the potential of the SSA for this purpose. For China, this region was initially among the most important sources of fuel and raw materials for the economy. African oil accounts for 28% of total consumption in country2.

Africa, especially after the discovery of a number of large deposits in the west and east of the continent, geographically turns out to be a very attractive source of fuel from the point of view of its convenient transportation both to the old consumption centers (North America, Western Europe, Japan) and to the new locomotives of the world economy growth in the XXI century-China, India,, Brazil.

African countries are more attractive to oil and gas multinational corporations (TNCs) that develop hydrocarbon resources in the offshore sector.

The article was financially supported by the Russian State Scientific Foundation. Project N 14 - 07 - 00026 "Defining factors for achieving the Africa Development Goals in the twenty-first century".

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offshore and other environmentally sensitive areas, as most African countries still maintain more lenient environmental standards and requirements imposed by national governments on development companies. This allows TNCs to save huge amounts of money.

In favor of Africa as a territory of promising expansion of leading oil and gas corporations, the recent desire of oil and gas TNCs to avoid a direct collision in such promising future zones as the Arctic also speaks.

The reason lies, of course, not in the altruism of oil and gas giants, but in their unwillingness to start making long - term massive capital investments there, which is associated with the negative interweaving of three determinants of investment activity-price, risks and timing. Western corporations in the next 10 to 15 years probably do not consider it an optimal strategy to invest in leasing reinforced "Arctic" drilling platforms and invest in infrastructure for exploration and transportation, then limit themselves to a 100-day drilling season in the midst of floating ice and other hazards.

Even though, according to American estimates, the US shelf allegedly contains more than $ 90 billion. 3 barrels of oil and gas, and it seems that multinational corporations do not intend to extract them in the foreseeable future. At least not yet. Instead, oil companies have "crawled" south, where shale fracking is all the rage, and are looking for concessions in Africa. According to analysts, such an intensive growth of new areas of oil production leads to the fact that crude oil prices may go out of control of OPEC. In this case, they will most likely only decrease.

In such a situation, it is impractical for Western corporations to invest not only in expensive, technologically complex and risky production in the northern latitudes, or in deposits fraught with ruinous subsequent "environmental" risks off the coast of North America. No less risky are investments in areas of the world that are seething with social explosions, such as the Middle East and the Mediterranean.

In this sense, the West coast of Africa, especially the Gulf of Guinea, is an attractive relatively "quiet backwater", a promising area of oil and gas production and exploration. The east coast of Africa is even more promising. Already, there are natural gas reserves on the shelf, comparable in volume to Qatar's. In addition, geographically, this coast is "deployed" in the direction of Asia - where the main "new consumers" of oil and gas resources are concentrated.

In these circumstances, Russian-African cooperation in trade and investment, primarily in the raw materials and fuel sectors, is becoming particularly relevant, as Russia and African countries are developing complex relations of cooperation and competition.

Russia is interested in Africa as a potential buyer of its industrial products and a supplier of many types of raw materials, and at the same time acts as a competitor of the latter in the world market of energy resources. Strengthening the positions of Russia and African states in the world economy of the twenty-first century will largely depend on whether Russia and Africa can join forces and use the favorable situation in the global raw materials and fuel markets both to modernize their national economies and to strengthen their own national interests in the raw materials sector and defend them. Only in this case, both Russia and Africa will act not just as suppliers of raw materials, but as leading players in the shrinking world market of raw materials, to which the laws of the "deficit economy"are increasingly beginning to apply.

Today, the struggle for energy resources in the world is coming to the fore. Africa is one of the few regions in the world where, according to experts, the so-called "peak of oil production"has not yet passed. However, it is believed that for many North African countries (Algeria, Egypt) it has already, in general, passed. At the same time, for most SSA oil exporters, these critical values are a matter of the future.

In addition, some countries have only recently become globally important oil and gas exporters. Today, African countries collectively produce almost 12% of the world's energy raw materials (in terms of energy consumption), and there is a tendency for this indicator to grow significantly. According to the analytical departments of leading multinational oil and gas corporations, in the next 10 to 15 years, oil production in Africa (including the offshore zone) can grow by about 6% per year. Between 1990 and 2013, it grew by almost 30 %4. Although energy consumption on the continent is increasing with the growth of the population and economies of African countries, the continent-wide energy consumption per capita (both in general and separately for oil and gas) remains very modest by world standards.5

DO WE KNOW ALL ABOUT AFRICA'S OIL AND GAS RESERVES?

The modern fuel and energy complex in Africa is characterized by the following features. The continent has the richest resource base of the fuel and energy complex (oil, gas, coal, and especially hydroelectric potential). However, compared to other regions of the world, these resources have been developed only to a small extent. At the same time, in Africa itself, from the point of view of their development, there is a strong unevenness. According to qualitative socio-economic criteria, the continent is divided into more developed and located closer to European markets, in particular:

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Figure 1. SSA's place in global hydrocarbon production, 2013

Source: http://www.bp.com/statistical-review

Chart 2. Comparison of proven oil reserves by world region, 2013

Источник: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/ statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf

mainly in Arabic-speaking North Africa and a very heterogeneous but generally less developed sub-region, sub-Saharan Africa. However, the latter includes South Africa, which stands out as a country with a developed capitalist market, which in many respects corresponds to the middle-developed countries of Western Europe.

The state of the fuel and energy sector, the degree of complexity and development of oil and gas infrastructure and pipeline systems in the sub-regions generally reflects differences in the levels of socio-economic development in the northern, central and extreme southern parts of the continent.

Proven oil reserves in Africa as of January 1, 2013 were estimated at $ 130.3 billion. barrels, or about 17.3 billion tons, 62.6 billion of them. Proved reserves are accounted for in the SSA. For comparison, the Middle East has 13 times more reserves, and Central and South America has 5 times more reserves.6

According to open data, most of Africa's oil reserves are geographically concentrated in four countries - Libya, Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola. They account for more than 85% of the continent's proven oil reserves. Gas fields (91% of proven reserves) are located on the territory (and within exclusive offshore economic zones)of the Russian Federation. Algeria, Egypt, Libya, and Nigeria. Due to this high-

Table 1

Proven natural gas reserves in major African producing countries (as of January 1 of these years)

1993

2003

2012

2013

2013

Ud. weight in the world,
%

Inventory multiplicity (D / W)

trillion cubic meters

trillion cubic meters

trillion cubic meters

trillion cubic feet.

trillion cubic meters

Algeria

3,7

4,5

4,5

159,1

4,5

2,4

55,3

Egypt

0,4

1,7

2,2

72,0

2,0

1,1

33,5

Libya

1,3

1,5

1,5

54,6

1,5

0,8

> 100,0

Nigeria

3,7

5,0

5,2

182,0

5,2

2,8

>100,0

Rest of Africa

0,8

1,1

1,3

44,3

1,3

0,7

68,1

TOTAL, Africa

9,9

13,8

14,7

512,0

14,5

7,7

67,1

Источник: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_en ergy_2013.pdf

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despite the country concentration of the surveyed deposits, about 10 years ago it was assumed that hydrocarbon resources are unevenly distributed among the countries of the continent and their main owners are literally 5-6 African states.7

OLD AND NEW OIL AND GAS PRODUCERS IN AFRICA

In the last 5 to 6 years, the geography of oil and gas fields on the African continent has significantly expanded due to such countries in West Africa as Ghana, Liberia, Ivory Coast, and East Africa-Mozambique, Tanzania (gas), Uganda and Kenya (oil). It is expected that new large oil and gas deposits will be found along the East African fault line in the coming years.

Thus, if earlier it was believed that in the African region there are only two truly large, by world standards, oil and gas bearing areas - the Mediterranean (Algeria, Libya, to a lesser extent Egypt) and the Atlantic, also known as Guinea (Nigeria, Angola), now the entire African platform is considered promising. At the beginning of 2014, out of 54 African countries, only three have not yet declared that they have already found "black gold" deposits on their territory and/or within their sea shelf, or are actively exploring for oil, or are starting to it8.

Due to the recent discoveries of yet-to-be-fully-explored but highly promising offshore fields, both in the Gulf of Guinea and off the coast of the Indian Ocean, changes may occur in the top ten oil and gas leaders. Currently, new technologies have made it possible to start industrial development of oil and gas and other resources that were previously considered unpromising, so almost all countries of the African continent are or potentially can become oil and gas producers.

According to the latest aggregated open data for the continent published by British Petroleum (BP), Africa produced 9.44 million barrels in 2012. per day (b/d). The main producers (in descending order) are Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Congo (Brazzaville), Equatorial Guinea, Republic of Gabon, Chad, Sudan, South Sudan, Tunisia, and Cameroon. The dynamics of oil production by country in the period from 2005 to 2012 is shown in Table 3.

According to preliminary estimates, the increase in hydrocarbon production in the SSA in 2013 was more than 5%. It is expected that in 2014 it will be 8%, and in the period 2015-2020 - on average, 6-7% per year. The main generators of this increase in production will be Angola, Ghana, South Sudan, Mozambique and Tanzania. Nigeria will remain the leading producer, but production growth is likely to be slower than in the five countries mentioned above. Uganda and Kenya, though not included in the list

Table 2

Proven oil reserves in major producing countries (as of January 1, 2012)

1993

2003

2012

2013

A country

billion barrels.

billion barrels.

billion barrels.

billion tons

billion barrels.

Ud. weight in the world, %

Inventory multiplicity (D / W)

Algeria

9,2

11,3

12,2

1,5

12,2

0,7

20,0

Angola

1,3

8,9

10,5

1,7

12,7

0,8

19,4

Gabon

0,8

2,4

2,0

0,3

2,0

0,1

22,3

Egypt

3,4

3,5

4,3

0,6

4,3

0,3

16,1

Congo (Brazzaville)

0,7

1,5

1,6

0,2

1,6

0,1

14,8

Libya

22,8

36,0

48,0

6,3

48,0

2,9

86,9

Nigeria

21,0

34,3

37,2

5,0

37,2

2,2

42,1

Sudan

0,3

0,6

5,0

0,2

1,5

0,1

50,0

Tunisia

0,5

0,5

0,4

0,1

0,4

<0,05

17,9

Chad

-

0,9

1,5

0,2

1,5

0,1

40,7

Eq. Guinea

0,3

1,1

1,7

0,2

1,7

0,1

16,5

South Sudan

-

-

-

0,5

3,5

0,2

>100

Rest of Africa

0,8

0,6

2,2

0,5

3,7

0,2

43,0

TOTAL, Africa

61,1

101,6

126,6

17,3

130,3

7,8

37,7

Source: see Table 1.

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Table 3

Oil production by country in the period from 2005 to 2012 (thousand b/d)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Algeria

1990

1979

1992

1969

1774

1698

1684

1667

Angola

1404

1421

1684

1901

1804

1863

1726

1784

Gabon

270

242

246

240

241

255

254

245

Egypt

672

704

698

715

730

725

727

728

Congo (Brazz.)

239

271

221

235

269

294

293

296

Libya

1745

1816

1820

1820

1652

1659

479

1509

Nigeria

2502

2392

2265

2113

2211

2523

2460

2417

Sudan

305

331

468

480

475

465

453

82

Tunisia

73

70

97

89

83

80

68

65

Chad

173

153

144

127

118

122

114

101

Eq. Guinea

358

342

350

347

307

274

252

283

South Sudan

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

31

Rest of Africa

172

224

193

190

183

167

232

234

TOTAL, Africa

9902

9945

10179

10226

9848

10123

8742

9442

Source: see Tables 1 and 2.

the largest producers, but will also increase production at a rapid pace. Production growth in South Sudan will largely depend not only on relations with Sudan and the domestic situation in the country, but also on the strategy chosen by Kenya and Uganda regarding competing South Sudanese oil.

Natural gas production during the same period was as follows (see Table 4).

In 2012, the largest buyers of pipeline African gas in the EU were Italy ($27.1 billion). m3) and Spain (10.2 billion m3). The lion's share of all supplies to the European Union (more than 83%) came from Algeria .9

Africa is a net exporter of hydrocarbons. The continent exports more oil and gas than it imports. At the same time, of course, there are countries that are net importers of these goods. Africa is home to 15% of the world's population, but uses only 3% of the world's energy consumption10. Compared to other regions of the world, there is an underutilization of energy resources on the continent itself and their underutilization to meet external demand. The level of availability of basic services in the energy sector is estimated at only 39% of the required level. The domestic market for energy raw materials is highly fragmented. Oil and gas pipeline systems are poorly developed in comparison with the level of objective needs for them.

The fuel and energy complex plays an important role in the economy of African countries. For some of them - Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Congo (Brazzaville), Equatori-

Table 4

Natural gas production (billion m3)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Algeria

88,2

84,5

84,8

85,8

79,6

80,4

82,7

81,5

Egypt

42,5

54,7

55,7

59,0

62,7

61,3

61,4

60,9

Libya

11,3

13,2

15,3

15,9

15,9

16,8

7,9

12,2

Nigeria

25,0

29,7

36,0

35,7

26,0

37,3

40,6

43,2

Rest of Africa

9,9

10,4

12,3

15,8

16,3

18,4

18,6

18,4

TOTAL, Africa

177,0

192,5

204,1

212,2

200,4

214,3

211,2

216,2

Source: see Tables 1, 2, and 3.

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Guinea, Gabon, Chad, Sudan, South Sudan, Cameroon - its role for the economy as a whole is leading and / or system-forming. Almost all countries in Africa have made the development of the oil and gas segment of the economy a priority and create special conditions for investing in exploration, production, transportation, and in some countries - in the processing of this type of raw material. Summarizing the 54 national strategies of African states for the development of the fuel and energy sector, the main directions of state policy of the continent's countries are: (1) stimulating investment activity in the fuel and energy sector, raising capital for the formation or renewal of fixed assets, investing in new energy technologies by expanding state concessional lending, targeted subsidies and subsidies, investment discounts, as well as providing tax incentives to investors, and (2) improving the structure of the fuel and energy balance.

In line with the recommendations of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, efforts are being made to create conditions for expanding the choice of energy producers and developing stable legal, fiscal and regulatory conditions, including::

- political and economic stability, including fiscal stability;

- availability of a reliable legal framework

Table 5

Oil and gas production, production and consumption in 25 SSA countries (as of 30.06.2013)

A country

Proven oil reserves, billion barrels

Proven gas reserves, trillion cubic feet.

Oil production, thousand b / d

Gas production, billion cubic feet per year

Oil consumption, thousand b / d

Gas consumption, billion cubic feet. per year

Botswana

0*

0

0

0

15,45

0

Lesotho

0

0

0

0

1,81

0

Namibia

0

2,20

0

0

25,12

0

Swaziland

0

0

0

0

4.54

0

SOUTH AFRICA

0,02

0,57

180,95

41,91

608,82

163,85

Zambia

0

0

0.17

0

20,21

0

Zimbabwe

0

0

0,12

0

20,97

0

Malawi

0

0

0,20

0

12,43

0

Mozambique

0

4,5

0,02

153,8

21,61

26,66

Tanzania

0

0,23

0,01

32,80

47,64

32.80

Ivory Coast

0,1

1,00

38,56

57,16

23,64

57,16

Sierra Leone

0

0

0,03

0

9,13

0

Benin

0,01

0,04

0

0

31,64

0

Burkina Faso

0

0

0

0

10,07

0

Gambia

0

0

0

0

3,26

0

Ghana

0,66

0,80

79,63

0

63,95

21,72

Guinea

0

0

0

0

8,73

0

Guinea-Bissau

0

0

0

0

2.97

0

Cape Verde

0

0

0

0

2,69

0

Mauritania

0,02

1,00

6,58

0

17,97

0

Мали

0

0

0

0

5,20

0

Niger

0

0

20,00

0

5.69

0

Nigeria

37,2

182.00

2524

1190

269.84

244,23

Senegal

0

0,35

0

0,72

42,12

0,72

Togo

0

0

0

0

11,23

0

* 0-in the table indicates values less than 0.05 in the units indicated in the column.

Рассчитано нами по: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy _2013.pdf

page 8
adoption of a number of fundamental laws, general investment codes, and special legislation regulating activities in the oil and gas industry (including infrastructure, transportation, and related services); inter-industry and industry-wide norms, regulations, and technical regulations;

- development of a mechanism for investment tax benefits;

- no discrimination between fuel and energy companies;

- free access of energy producers to transportation systems.

The prospects for Africa and the potential for further development of the fuel and energy sector look extremely positive. First of all, this is associated with the involvement of new, East African deposits. This part of Africa will be developed especially intensively in the next 10 years. It is also important that in most cases, the competition of investors there will not be conducted for the redistribution of the market, but will start from a "clean slate". After all, if approximately 15 thousand wells have been drilled in West Africa so far, then only 500 thousand have been drilled in East Africa. At the same time, the Gulf of Guinea will continue to grow the attractiveness of deep-sea production, the main investment agreements in which are currently being signed. Several deep-sea prospective oil projects have been deployed in West Africa. New production from deepwater fields will begin in Nigeria, Angola, Congo (Brazzaville) and Ghana over the next five years.

MORE WELLS - GOOD AND DIFFERENT

In the fuel and energy drilling segment of the SSA, a boom continues for the fourth year, which has no historical precedents in the industry either in terms of duration or scale. From the end of 1999 to the beginning of 2014, the number of active drilling rigs in the region increased by 427%: in November 1999, 36 rigs were operating in the region, and in February 2014 - 156 (of which 65 were offshore installations in the Gulf of Guinea, including 61 contracted ones) 12.

New drilling has been growing at a particularly high rate since mid-2011. It was then that the discovery of the largest new gas fields off the East Coast of Africa was announced. The fault area on the shelf of the East African coast of Africa extends from Mamba in the south to Somalia in the north. Geologists predict the discovery of new large deposits there.

It is noteworthy that the maximum growth occurred inMozambique. Confirmation of ongoing discoveries in a new gas-bearing province on the country's shelf since 2010 raised the estimate of reserves from 0.13 trillion m3 to 2.7 trillion m3. The most recent increase in gas reserves of this magnitude was recorded in 2011 in Iran. 13 The American concern Anadarko announced in 2013 that it had discovered new gas fields on the Mozambique shelf estimated at 1.82 trillion cubic meters. 14 The Italian concern ENI announced that new fields in the Ruvuma deep-water basin near the coast of the province of Cabo Delgado have total reserves of the Mamba field, to which Nakhodka belongs, are up to 2.1 trillion cubic meters 15.

According to some unofficial estimates, the total estimated gas reserves off the coast of Mozambique are 26 trillion m3, which in the coming years may put the country in the category of the world's leading gas-producing states. So far, most of the deposits discovered in Mozambique are not being exploited.

Despite this, Mozambique is currently one of only two (along with Tanzania) gas producers in East Africa. Mozambique produced 153.8 billion cubic feet in 2013. gas supply. Gas was supplied from the Pande and Tetape fields. 26.66 billion rubles. cubic feet. It was consumed domestically, and $ 127.14 billion was consumed in the United States. - sent to South Africa via the Sasol Petroleum International Gas Pipeline, which is 965 km long) 16.

The State Oil and Gas Corporation of India (ONGC) has reached an agreement with the American company Anadarko Petroleum to acquire a 10% stake in the Zone 1 gas field located off the coast of Mozambique. The transaction amount will be about $2.6 billion. At the same time, the American company will remain the operator of the field with a 26.5% stake.

This is the second deal by an Indian company in Mozambique's Zone 1 after significant gas reserves were discovered there. ONGC previously entered into an indirect 10% equity interest in the field through Oil India Ltd with Videocon Mauritius Energy. According to various estimates, gas volumes in Zone 1 alone can range from 1.13 trillion to 1.84 trillion m3. Such reserves will meet India's gas needs in full over the next 15 years. In a statement, ONGC said that " the Zone 1 project is strategically located and will enable the supply of liquefied natural gas to India at competitive prices." In addition, the company notes that Zone 1 can become one of the largest LNG projects in the world17.

The Chinese are also showing great interest in Mozambique gas. In March 2013, China's largest oil producer, China National Petroleum Corp. CNPC has acquired 20% of the Zone 4 project of the Mamba field from Italy's ENI for $4.2 bn18.

Also, in the next 5 years, oil production will begin on an industrial scale - in Uganda and heavy oil-in Madagascar.

Commercially viable oil was discovered in Uganda in 2006, with estimated reserves of 3.5 billion cubic meters. bbl. However, due to a number of political, social, economic and technical problems, it took almost a decade for mining to start.

By 2012, a total of 77 wells had been drilled and explored, 70 of them with potential for profit. In 2013

page 9
The government has finally reached agreements with Tullow Oil (UK), Total (France) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation / CNOOC (China) for the construction of an oil refinery and gas pipeline. Uganda also has partnership agreements with neighboring countries: South Sudan, Kenya and Rwanda, which will be part of the owners of the future refinery. As soon as the remaining issues were resolved, construction began in 2014, and production is scheduled to start in 2018.19

Most of Uganda's oil reserves are located in the Albertina Graben area, a 45 km * 500 km stretch of lush green vegetation that is home to about half of Africa's bird species, along with baboons, antelopes and elephants, which is a major concern for environmentalists. However, the Ugandan Government believes that the development of oil fields will accelerate economic growth, provide electricity to the entire Ugandan population, including rural areas, dramatically improve the level of education and health, and put Uganda in a number of countries with an above-average per capita income.

The gas industry in Tanzania has been actively developing relatively recently. Nevertheless, such leaders of the global oil and gas industry as Exxon Mobil, Statoil, Shell and Petrobras are already working there. The country's projected gas resources are estimated at 2 trillion m3, and Western companies are planning to build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant with a capacity of 10 million tons per year.

Tanzania really has a great export potential: in addition to the actual reserves of raw materials, this is also due to the geographical location of the country. Most likely, one or even several gas liquefaction plants will be built in Tanzania. Gazprom's entry into Tanzania and other East African countries would allow it to further approach the Indian market, which is potentially very large.

In addition, the market of Tanzania itself is of great interest to foreign investors. Currently, all the gas produced in the country (32 billion cubic feet) is consumed domestically. The gas comes from the Songo Songo field in the north of the country. In the next 5 years, it is planned to increase gas production due to the development of the Mnazi Bay field in the south-east and belonging to the Ruvuma 20

Currently, the main fuel in the country is charcoal, and almost all oil is supplied from abroad. However, given the potential hydrocarbon reserves that Tanzania has, its authorities intend to build a new " gas " economy by attracting foreign investment. So, only China intends to invest up to $10 billion in the Tanzanian economy in the coming years. One of the projects ($1.2 billion) involves the construction of a gas pipeline. This highway will connect the fields in the south of the country with the port of the country's largest city - Dar es Salaam. However, if Gazprom finally decides to gain a foothold in Tanzania, it can invest no less. If Gazprom is involved in the construction of a liquefied natural gas terminal, then the cost of the project may also approach $10 billion.

Naturally, investments will be stretched over time, and large investments can be discussed starting only from 2016-2017. In Tanzania, Gazprom is primarily interested in deposits on the country's shelf. Tanzanian authorities have put up for tender licenses for 7 blocks on the deep-sea shelf. The application deadline ended in mid-May 2014. 21

In 2003, South Africa joined the club of oil-producing countries-commercial exploitation of the Sable field, located 95 km south of the coast of South Africa and southwest of Mossel Bay, began. Previously considered devoid of its own oil and gas, South Africa already covers 29% of its oil and 2% of its gas needs from its own resources. The Sable Field is owned and jointly managed by the South African state-owned company PetroSA (60%) and the American corporation Pioneer Natural Resources, which owns 40% of the capital.22

About 100 million barrels of oil were also found on the shelf of Mauritania. The pioneer in this country was the Australian company Woodside Petroleum. Back in 2001, the company's specialists discovered the Chinguetti field, located 56 miles southwest of the capital, Nouakchott. Oil production started in 2006 and reached 75 thousand barrels. in the day. However, by 2011 it was reduced to 7.4 thousand, and many investors left the Mauritanian oil market. At the same time, the country has good prospects due to the discovery of a number of other oil and gas fields on the shelf, the largest of which are Pelican Gas Discovery, Cormoran Gas Discovery, Tiof Oil and Gas Field, Banda Gas Field. British, French and Australian companies are engaged in offshore exploration. Oil and gas reserves are also found in Benin and Senegal23.

The presence of small oil deposits in Ghana has been known since the 1950s. Active production growth and development of coastal oil and gas resources began in 2007 after the discovery of the Jubilee oil field. Ghanaian oil production increased from 7,000 b / d in 2009 to 78,000 b / d in 2011 and 80,000 b / d in 2012. At the turn of 2012/13, the leading operator of the field, Tullow, encountered technical problems that led to a noticeable drop in production in 2013. Despite this, the success of the Jubilee field has generated interest from other oil companies to explore geologically similar regions in other Gulf of Guinea countries, such as Benin, Liberia, Sierra Leone And That.

Expansion of the field continues in Ghana itself

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Jubilee Field, and a sharp increase in returns from the Jubilee Phase 1A block is expected from 2015. Hess (USA) and Statoil (Norway) discovered a 149-meter oil reservoir at the Deepwater Tana' Cape Three Points field, the final assessment of which has not been completed. ENI (Italy) has discovered gas fields of industrial capacity with a flow rate of 5000 b/d and is considering commercializing them in the form of LNG. Kosmos and Tullow are also actively exploring opportunities for developing offshore oil production, storage and shipping. Construction of an LNG plant based on raw materials from offshore deposits is nearing completion in Ghana 24.

NOT ONLY GET IT, BUT ALSO DELIVER IT TO THE CONSUMER

In the next 5 years, it is also planned to implement the following major projects for the construction of pipelines in the SSA::

- A 4,400-kilometer Trans-Saharan gas pipeline from the Warri area in Nigeria to the largest gas field Hassi R'Mel in Algeria, which will be connected to the already functioning gas pipeline from Algeria to Europe;

- The 1,070-kilometer Chad-Cameroon oil pipeline, which will transport crude oil from the Doba field in Chad through Cameroon to the port of Kribi, located on the Atlantic coast;

- The 740 - kilometer Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kapo pipeline, designed to ensure the full energy security of Nigeria in the long term.

Demand for LNG is growing in the global gas trade. As a result, LNG production is also growing, which is growing by 4.3% per year. LNG is expected to account for 15.5% of global gas consumption by 2030. Africa is rapidly increasing LNG production and is gradually catching up with the Middle East in terms of global sales.

By 2028, Africa is expected to become the world's largest LNG exporter.25 First of all, this is due to the development of the largest gas fields in the east of the continent. In the next 5-10 years, it is planned to build LNG in Mozambique and Tanzania, as well as two large plants in Angola and Cameroon (the project has already been developed). Successful implementation of these projects will require the construction of pipelines connecting oil and gas fields to their processing sites.

Table 6 provides a comparative description of African oil and gas producing countries by the degree of investment attractiveness, based on 4 criteria of the current state of oil and gas production, reserve growth, and possible new developments in their fuel and energy sector in the short (1-2 years) and medium (3-5 years)periods long-term perspective.

If we talk about strategic changes, then by 2030 there will be a gradual transition from shallow oil and gas production in the north and west of Africa to deep-water drilling in the southeast and east, as well as in the north-west of Africa.

Table 6

Characteristics of African oil and gas producing countries by the degree of investment attractiveness

Criteria

Field age and maturity of oil and gas production

Degree of well-established management of oil and gas production

Production growth prospects

New manufacturers

Forecast

Production is expected to decline due to the gradual development of deposits. Outgoing wells are only partially replaced. Exploration continues, but new deposits are unlikely to be discovered that are comparable in terms of reserves to those that are being disposed of

Production has reached a plateau or is slowly growing. Production volumes from retired fields are replaced by new ones in equal measure or even in excess

New oil and gas producers will have a steady increase in production volumes as new fields are put into operation

Oil and gas production will start in the medium term (5 years)

Countries

Sudan, South Sudan, Eq. Cameroon, Chad, DRC, Gabon, Guinea, Mauritania

Nigeria, Angola, Congo, South Africa, Ivory Coast

Ghana, Niger

Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Madagascar, South Africa, Mauritania, Benin, Senegal

Compiled by the authors.

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the continent. Therefore, today it is necessary to enter new promising oil and gas markets. First of all, this applies to countries such as Mozambique, Tanzania, Namibia, South Africa, Mauritania and Benin.

RUSSIAN INTEREST

Russian-African cooperation in the oil and gas sector will be of particular importance in the 21st century.

Russia, together with Saudi Arabia, now occupies a leading position among oil-producing and oil-exporting countries. The importance of the energy factor in the country's foreign policy is growing. Therefore, Russia is striving to become the most influential player in the global oil and gas market. However, it will be very difficult to implement these plans only at the expense of domestic resources.

The main areas of oil production in the Russian Federation can meet this task only by 30-40%, the remaining production should increase due to the exploration and development of fields in hard-to-reach areas and in the coastal waters of Russia. According to available forecasts, the share of hard-to-recover liquid fuel reserves will increase by 80% by 2020, while the share of active reserves will decrease by 20%. The development of new deposits involves large capital investments and is not always economically feasible.

Therefore, in order to maintain their influence on the global oil and gas market, Russian companies need to take measures not only to develop new fields on the territory of the Russian Federation, but also to expand the geographical scope of their activities by organizing oil production in other, more favorable areas of the world, including in Africa.

In addition to oil, Russia is the world's largest producer and exporter of natural gas. It is assumed that in the XXI century the share of natural gas in the structure of energy consumption will constantly increase. Given the growing global demand for gas, the Russian Federation is interested in maintaining its leading position in the production and export of "blue fuel". However, gas production at the main Russian fields is declining, and the development of new fields at great depths, in the Arctic latitudes and other hard-to-reach areas is associated with huge costs.

An increase in gas export supplies can be achieved through the development of gas fields outside the country, including in African countries, whose gas resources are estimated at 31 trillion m3. At the same time, the cost of gas production at African fields is 35-60% lower than at Russian fields, and a number of African countries have modern technologies for liquefying natural gas.

As Africa is rapidly emerging as a strategic player in the energy sector, it is in Russia's interests to take a closer look at the medium - and long-term prospects of oil and gas cooperation with the Black Continent, possibly abandoning the pursuit of externally attractive "near goals".

In fact, the only main task of interested domestic structures in the region should be to counteract the transformation of the African continent into an effective alternative to Russian fuel sources and, even more likely, into an effective tool of blackmail and pressure on the Russian side in the energy sector.

To achieve this goal, an innovative system of measures for long-term and self-sustaining Russian presence and, most importantly, influence in the region should be developed. These measures should be based on the material and technical base of Russian property, the economic and technological links of African countries, companies and personnel with Russia, as well as personal contacts, connections and interests of influential representatives of the African public.

1 Bulletin of the oil and gas complex. 2012. N 1-2. P. 8.

2 2012 Commerce Yearbook of China. Beijing, 2013. P. 57.

3 www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/

4 http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview

Abramova I. O. 5 The New Role of Africa in the World Economy of the XXI century. Moscow, 2013. pp. 111-112. (Abramova I. O. 2013. Novaya rol Afriki v mirovoi ekonomike XXI veka. M.) (in Russian)

6 http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/sta-tistical_review_of_world_energ y_2013.pdf

7 Abbreviated reviews of major studies by British Petroleum, ConocoPhillips, and Royal Dutch Shell are publicly available. See, for example: http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview; http://www.con-ocophillips.com/EN/about/company_reports/Pages/index.aspx; http://www.shell.com/home/content/media/reports_publications/

8 http://www.southafrica.info/business/success/sableoil.htm#.U ydlEVPZt8U#ixzz2wFz21jLb

9 http://www.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_cxplained/index. php/Africa-EU.aspx

Abramova I. O. 10 Decree. op. P. 111.

11 http://www.shell.com/home/content/media/reports_publica-tions/

12 http://www.eia.gov/countries/regions-topics2.cfm?fips=EEAE

13 http://www.sptec-advisory.com/SPTEC_Advisory-Mozambi-que-The_Emergence_of_a_giant _in_Natural_Gas.pdf

14 http://online.wsj.com/articles/anadarkos-controversial-mozam-bique-project-shows-appetite-f or-natural-gas-1407810602

15 http://www.eni.com/en_IT/media/press-releases/2013/09/ 2013 - 09 - 03-new-high_impact-exploration-mozambique.shtml

16 http://www.sasol.co.za/about-sasol/south-african-energy-clus-ter/sasol-gas/operations-sasol-g as

17 http://online.wsj.com/articles/anadarkos-controversial-mozam-bique-project-shows-appetite-f or-natural-gas-1407810602

18 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013 - 03 - 14/cnpc-to-buy-stake-in-eni-s-mozambique-assets-for-4 - 2-billion.html

19 http://www.oilinuganda.org/categories/features/companies

20 http://www.tpdc-tz.com/tpdc/Operating_companies.php

21 http://www.dailynews.co.tz/index.php/biz/27733-russia-s-gazprom-eyes-investing-in-tanzania

22 http://www.saoga.org.za/oil-gas-hubs/upstream-oil-gas-south-africa

23 http://www.mbendi.com/indy/oilg/af/mu/p0005.htm

24 http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/feb/03/ ghana-oil-money-development-gains

25 Vedomosti. 23.08.2014.

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