Keywords: North Africa, African Renaissance, global crisis, "Great Arab Revolution", reforms

In the early 2000s, the countries of North Africa (SA) experienced a prolonged economic recovery in the context of a rapid rise in world prices for oil and other energy carriers. It was reflected in the accelerated development of such industries as the oil and gas and manufacturing industries, the tourism sector, industrial infrastructure, and a number of others, and was a consequence of the desire in the countries of the region to modernize their economies. The average annual GDP growth rate in the Maghreb States in 2000-2005 was 3.2%. In subsequent years, they continued to increase, reaching their peak in pre-crisis 2007 (approx. 5% and above).

Growth was interrupted by the global financial and economic crisis that broke out in the second half of 2008. By mid - to late 2009, there were signs that it was declining.

But then, since the end of 2010, there have been upheavals that have been unprecedented in the history of the countries of North Africa and the Middle East in their scale, depth and consequences. Is the region able to recover from the damage suffered during the unrest and return to normal life?

TRENDS OF THE FIRST DECADE

The main macroeconomic indicators in most of the Maghreb countries in the period 2000 - the first half of 2008 were characterized by a steady upward trend. In 1998, revenues from oil exports of the largest exporters of "black gold" in the United States amounted to: Algeria - $5.68 billion, Libya - $5.98 billion, 10 years later they increased 8-9 times (!) and reached, respectively, $50.0 billion and $41.0 billion ¹. The annual income per capita also increased significantly, which in 2010 was $13.8 thousand in Libya, $7.4 thousand in Algeria, $9.5 thousand and $4.9 thousand in Tunisia and Morocco, respectively.

Despite many objective difficulties of a social, political and economic nature that hindered integration processes, since the early 2000s, North African countries have actively sought to join regional and interregional trade and economic unions and alliances. Among them, in particular, the Mediterranean Free Trade Zone, which was expected to be created by 2012; participation in the ambitious DESERTEC² energy project, which provides for the deployment of solar panels in the Sahara Desert to provide electricity to North Africa, and later to European countries.

Some strengthening of national economies, growth in business activity, and a significant increase in gold and foreign exchange reserves were observed in the countries of the region. Joint projects for the construction of related companies, including large companies, have been developed. Among the latter are such giants as Airbus ³, Daimler Benz, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, BASF Hoechst, Heinz (aviation, automobile industry, food production, construction, pharmaceuticals, oil and gas industry-

The article was prepared with the financial support of the Russian State Scientific Foundation. Grant N 09 - 02 - 00551 a / r "The role of human capital in shaping the country's image in a multipolar world: a comparison of Russian and African realities".

insurance industry, etc.). Experts have started talking about a possible "African renaissance" in the ^third millennia4.

It seemed that the increased inflow of external resources - foreign investment, export earnings, transfers of migrant workers, income from foreign tourism, the effect of the ongoing pro-market reforms, including large revenues to the state budget from the sale of state-owned companies, and the deepening diversification of the sectoral structure of national economies-would help reverse the stagnant, crisis trends in the economy and social sphere of the 80's-90's of the XX century.

However, the global financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008 called into question most of the previous estimates and forecasts regarding the immediate economic future of North Africa.

However, the long economic recovery of the 2000s in conditions of relative stability of the domestic political situation, not only when the first signs appeared, but also when they subsequently increased, did not worry too much, and many people thought that it would only cost another correction of the current course...

FORECASTS OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE GLOBAL CRISIS

During the first round of the crisis, experts and international investors wondered whether the trends of the last pre-crisis years, largely related to the increased inflow of foreign investment, would not be disrupted, and whether capital inflows would turn into capital outflows.

Nevertheless, the initial period of the crisis was relatively calm for the North African economies. While banks around the world were drawn into the maelstrom of operations in the US mortgage market, which was at the epicenter of the global financial crisis, the financial sector in North Africa remained relatively stable. This was largely due to a number of preventive measures that were initiated in the pre-crisis period (financial sector reform, accelerated trade liberalization, and support for integration processes in the economic sphere) ^.5

However, a reasonable question arose - how much will this stability stand the test of time? Some experts believed that factors such as the immaturity of the financial segment of North African states, the incompleteness of the capital market formation process, the remaining hotbeds of conflict, as well as the inevitable recession caused by the global economic crisis, would significantly erode the image of the "safe haven" of the African economy. Analysts at the American investment bank Morgan Stanley ⁶ expected a large-scale (up to 25%) reduction in the flow of capital to North African countries7, as in difficult times for the European financial system, the risks of investing in third world countries could easily scare off depositors.

MOROCCO'S ECONOMY UNDER CRISIS PRESSURE

In Morocco, the impact of the global crisis on the country's economy was initially assessed cautiously. "The global crisis has not affected Morocco," said Abdellatif Jouahri, director of Morocco's central bank, Al-Maghrib. Indeed, the country's banking system was just beginning to enter international financial markets, and only about 4% of Moroccan banks ' assets were invested abroad. According to Jouahri, the assets of the real estate sector (in value terms, they corresponded to about 14% of Morocco's gross national product) were mainly related to the municipal housing sector, and therefore were insured by the state.⁸

Nevertheless, the Moroccans did not manage to completely isolate themselves from the crisis. The fall in consumer demand in developed countries, mainly in European markets, has had a significant impact on the country's economy. In 2009, Moroccan exports fell to $14.75 billion. - by more than 5 billion rubles. less than the volume of 2008, imports amounted to about $31 billion. (40 billion in 2008). Real GDP growth also declined to 4.9% (5.6% in 2008). The weakening of the Moroccan dirham by the beginning of 2009 negatively affected the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves, their volume by the beginning of 2009 decreased from $22.7 to $21.5 billion.

An unenviable fate was predicted for the most important sector of the real economy of Morocco-the tourism industry. According to official data published by the Ministry of Tourism of Morocco, the number of hotel rooms purchased in the country was already 3% lower in the period from January to May 2009 than in the same period of 2008. The income of the tourism business in foreign currency in the first quarter of 2009 was ^{19% less than the same indicator in the first quarter of 2008.9}

The tourism sector is a priority for Morocco. The Government has set a goal of reaching an annual influx of 10 million tourists by 2010, thereby increasing the share of tourism and related industries in GDP to 20%¹⁰. To solve this problem, it was planned to implement a number of tourism development projects in cities across the country. In particular, Plan Azur¹¹ provided for the creation of six new resorts in areas such as Beach Blanche and Lixus, as well as a major modernization of transport infrastructure ¹².

However, the global economic downturn called into question the implementation of the planned projects. In this regard, the Ministry of Tourism of Morocco decided to establish a working group to develop a flexible and effective anti-crisis strategy, which included a number of measures aimed at supporting the development of Turi-

food industry ¹³. The essence of this strategy was to conduct PR campaigns designed to attract tourists to the country. Special emphasis was placed on holding exhibitions of the achievements of the Moroccan tourism industry in the Kingdom itself and on the country's participation in international tourism exhibitions. Considerable attention was also paid to the expansion of the Internet space by the tourism business.

However, the time frame for achieving some of the planned goals had to be slightly shifted to a later period, the number of foreign tourists visiting Morocco in 2010 was, according to preliminary estimates, 9.2 million people, and the revenues generated in the industry were estimated at $7.6 billion. ¹⁴

As for the leader of the Moroccan extractive industry, the phosphate industry, despite a slight decline in raw material prices, its position seemed quite stable, and the prospects for further development looked relatively clear: the enterprises of the phosphate industry, being public-private, are guaranteed to be provided with state funding. Moreover, in the context of the global food crisis, there was a growing trend in demand for their products.

In addition, the decline in energy prices in 2008-2009. It turned out to be positive for the national economy of Morocco, which has very modest energy reserves: the fall in oil prices significantly reduced the burden on the trade balance.

At the same time, the anti-crisis measures taken in the leading centers of the world economy, and in Morocco itself, made it possible to somewhat correct the situation that had begun to take on a threatening character. One of the signs of this was the growing trend in the Kingdom's gold and foreign exchange reserves in the second half of 2009 and the decline in the unemployment rate (9.1% in 2009 versus 9.6% in 2008).

ALGERIA:"OIL AND GAS ECONOMY " IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL MARKET VOLATILITY

In Algeria, the question of the impact of the financial crisis on the country's economy looked different than in neighboring Morocco. The state is connected to the global economy by supplying its oil and gas resources: 98% of the country's exports are made up of hydrocarbons. As a result, a possible significant decline in world oil prices in the context of the global crisis can certainly significantly worsen the economic situation in Algeria. According to experts, the recession of the national economy could become critical at a price per barrel of $80 or lower.

Algeria's real GDP growth declined from 3.1% in 2007 to 2.2% in 2009 due to lower prices for liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons in 2008-2009. To keep the economy afloat during the crisis, the country's unprecedented accumulated gold and foreign exchange reserves of about $150 billion have helped, which today is able to cover Algeria's import needs for about three to four years. However, the growth of Algeria's gold and foreign exchange reserves slowed down due to a decrease in oil demand. If in 2005 - 2007 the reserves were replenished by $77.5 billion, then from 2008 to 2009. they increased by only 6 billion ¹⁵. The volume of exports also declined significantly - $78 billion in 2008 and $43 billion in 2009 (about $53 billion in 2010), which confirmed the vulnerability of the economy due to fluctuations in European demand for "black gold". Under these conditions, the country was forced to restrain the rapid growth of imports, which over the same period of time increased moderately - from $38 to $39 billion.

Algeria has a number of long-term projects planned, ¹⁶ with the aim of building an efficient industry in the country. They include the development of such industries as petrochemicals, phosphate mining, mineral fertilizers, steel and aluminum. These projects are being prepared and put into practice. Despite the decree limiting the share of foreign investors in such projects to 50%, the participation of foreign entrepreneurs, of course, remains a necessary condition for their successful promotion. However, attracting capital from abroad may be threatened by the collapse of capital markets. Recently, international experts have made the first assessment of oil and gas reserves in Algeria in many years, and the results of this assessment will reflect the country's investment attractiveness ^for foreign depositors17.

TUNISIAN ECONOMY UNDER THE PRESSURE OF THE CRISIS

The structure of the Tunisian economy is similar in some respects to that of Morocco. The share of manufacturing industries is relatively high here. Foreign economic relations are largely focused on the member states of the European Union. Oil and gas production is very modest, and in some years Tunisia even had to resort to oil imports, but in the 2000s, both countries almost completely meet the country's domestic needs.

Since independence (1956), the Tunisian Government has pursued a policy of diversifying the sectoral structure of the national economy, with an emphasis on supporting export industries. This policy has borne considerable fruit: industrial exports, revenues from the tourism industry, foreign exchange receipts from agricultural exports to Europe, transfers of Tunisian workers who have been working abroad for a long time,

they served as a source of large revenues in hard currency.

Nevertheless, the concern, and justified, was also expressed in this, the most economically developed country in the region. On October 9, 2008, Tunis announced the creation of a State body to monitor the global economic and financial situation, develop measures to stimulate the development of the country's economy, and overcome the negative consequences of the crisis.

The decision was a reaction to the negative trends that have manifested themselves in economic life. Although the opening of the real estate market to international investors here was at the very beginning, so even with the recent increase in real estate prices, it is not necessary to talk about any overheating of this sector of the economy, nevertheless, since 2008, macroeconomic indicators have decreased here. In 2009, during the most active period of the crisis, the growth rate of the Tunisian economy declined to 3% (according to other data-to 0.3%). This, in turn, led to an increase in unemployment, which has long exceeded the critically dangerous level (in 2010, 13.3%, in 2007, the same figure was 12.4%). At the same time, the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves grew from $8.8 billion to $11.1 billion by the end of ^2009.18 In 2010, the country's economy showed signs of stabilization and growth: according to the IMF, GDP increased by 3.8%¹⁹. If the reforms implemented in the economic sphere were adequately implemented, the country had a chance to resume active economic growth, as it was in the pre-crisis years.

More problematic was the situation in one of the key sectors of the Tunisian economy-manufacturing, which is dominated by the textile industry, the production of electrical cables, automobile components and aggregates. All of these sectors are directly dependent on demand in European markets, which has declined as a result of the crisis. As a result, Tunisian exports fell from $ 12.5 billion to $ 8.5 billion in 2010. euro, i.e. by more than 30%²⁰. The textile sector, which accounts for about a quarter of the country's exports, was most affected: by the end of 2009, exports of textile products had declined by 20%. The gradual recovery of this industry began in the first quarter of 2010 (exports of its products grew by 3%), which gave reason to say that one of the leading sectors of the Tunisian economy overcame the global market downturn. This trend should have been reinforced by the industrial capacity modernization program designed to take into account the consequences of the crisis.

The test of the Tunisian economy in the face of the crisis was the continuation - in the face of a decrease in the flow of foreign investment - of the construction of a new airport in Enfida, designed to receive a significant part of tourists from all over the world due to its proximity to the main resort areas of the country. Due to the crisis, the construction of this facility, which started in 2007, could have been suspended indefinitely; however, the project was implemented and opened in ^{October 2009.21}

2009 showed the relative resilience of the Tunisian tourism industry to market fluctuations in the global economy. The advantage of Tunisia is very attractive prices for recreation and the level of service. From January to June 2009, the country was visited by about 2.2 million people, of whom 1 million were Europeans. In the first five months of 2009, Tunisian tourism revenues grew by 3%.

Undoubtedly, one of the reasons that gave rise to the mass protest movement in the country was the crisis trends in economic life at the end of the first decade of the XXI century. However, the political crisis that led to the fall of the Ben Ali regime was based on not one, but a complex of reasons.

The Tunisian revolution, first and foremost, was the result of the crisis of the authoritarian system of government, the harsh suppression of the opposition, the harmful impact on society of corruption that affected the ruling elite, and other equally acute long-standing social diseases that did not respond well to prompt treatment, first of all, the high level of youth unemployment, which in some groups ranged from 30 to 60%, repeatedly exceeding the critical level.

RESULTS OF ANTI-CRISIS POLICY, CONSEQUENCES OF SHOCKS

So, the countries of North Africa did not escape the downturn in their economies caused by the global financial and economic crisis. The economic development programs of the Maghreb oil-producing countries were negatively affected, albeit briefly, by the decline in world hydrocarbon prices. The average global oil price, which was about $159 per barrel in mid-July 2008, fell to $60 by the end of October 2008, and this trend continued in early 2009 ($40-45). The significant decline in oil and gas prices during 2008 was particularly painful for the economy of Algeria , the largest gas exporter in the Middle East and North Africa. Only since October 2009 has there been a growing trend in the price of oil, which for the first time since October 200822 exceeded $75 per barrel, and a year later - by October 2010 - reached $81 (compared to $ 120 at the beginning of the second quarter of 2011) 23.

A business forum was held in Tunis on December 5, 2008. At the meeting, representatives of trade organizations of the Arab Maghreb Union countries* decided to organize such meetings every three months in order to improve the quality of trade.-

* Union du Maghreb Arabe UMA. It was established in 1989 to achieve economic and political integration of North African countries. SAM members are Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia.

judging the coordination of actions on the economic integration of the Maghreb and the market situation in the countries of the region, the prospects for the development of the regional market were investigated. The forum was organized by the Tunisian Union of Industry, Trade and Traditional Industries in cooperation with the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation ²⁴.

Secretary General of the Union Habib Ben Yahya noted at the meeting that the activation of the unified Maghreb market will be the best response to the growing interest in the Union from regional trade and economic unions and alliances, in particular, the EU, as well as international funds and organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank. "All these associations," he stressed, " consider the formation of the Maghreb Union (which for several decades remained only "on paper" - author's note) a necessary step both to preserve security and stability in the region, and to open up investment horizons in the promising Maghreb market. " ²⁵

Currently, the Maghreb market serves about 85 million people. consumers are expected to reach 120 million by 2020. Meanwhile, the Maghreb countries currently export more goods to the markets of EU member states than to their regional neighbors. Despite the efforts made by the Maghreb countries to develop bilateral trade and economic relations, their volume is only about 3% of the region's foreign trade turnover.

At a meeting of representatives of trade organizations of the Maghreb countries (Tunis, November 2008), IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn stressed that in the context of the global financial and economic crisis, it is more important than ever for the countries of the region to intensify efforts to develop inter-Maghreb economic integration.²⁶

The expert community considers it both as a key factor of stability in the context of continuing crisis trends, and as a necessary condition for solving the most important regional economic task of the XXI century-creating a favorable investment climate in the countries of North Africa, which makes it possible to mobilize the available various internal resources - human, agroclimatic, raw materials and, what is especially important, external, first of all total foreign investment.

On their basis, it becomes possible to implement large investment megaprojects of regional and interregional scale. Among them are projects in the field of energy (construction of new Trans-North African - Southern European oil and gas pipelines and increasing the capacity of existing ones, the unified energy system of North Africa, its connection to the energy systems of Europe and Tropical Africa, etc.), industrial infrastructure (trans-North African highways and railways), and the tourism industry, which has dynamically advanced in the the number of priority areas of economic and social development, etc.

Along with other measures, they offer a real opportunity to turn the economic situation in the Arab Maghreb for the better, despite the significant damage that was caused to the economy due to the paralysis of normal economic life (according to various estimates, direct economic losses in Tunisia alone ranged from $1.5 - 2 to $3 - 5 billion). However, these tasks can be solved only in conditions of internal political stability and successful implementation of the reforms announced in a number of countries in the region after the upheavals of late 2010 and early 2011.

^{Chapman S.} 1 Oil in the Middle East and North Africa. Based on the original essav by Richard Johns - in: The Middle East and North Africa. 2009. L., 2009. P. 160.

² http://www.desertec.org/en/concept/

³ http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_11/b4123 038640646.htm, http://www.africanews.com/site/list_messages/20435

⁴ BIKI. M., N 55, 20.05.2008. P. 1; N 122, 26.11.2010. P. 1, 4.

⁵ http://www.yacout.info/Middle-East-and-North-Africa-driving-out-of-the-financial-crisis_al4 02.html

⁶ http://www.morganstanley.com

⁷ http://www.neues-deutschland.de/artikel/138152.finanzkrise-erreicht-afrika.html

⁸ http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtmll/en_GB/features/awi/features/2008/09/30/feat ure-01

⁹ http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtml 1 /en_GB/features/awi/features/2009/06/22/feature-03

¹⁰ http://www.tourisme.gov.ma/english/2-Vision2010-Avenir/1-en-bref/enbref.htm#

¹¹ http://www.propertyborders.co.uk/planazur.asp

¹² http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in Morocco

¹³ http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtmll/en_GB/features/awi/features/2008/12/30/feat ure-01

¹⁴ http://moroccanfinance.blogspot.com/2011/01/85-million-tourists-visited-moroccoin.html

¹⁵ The Middle Easte North Africa. 2009. L., 2009. P. 228.

¹⁶ http://www.gtz.de/de/weltweit/maghreb-naher-osten/4074.htm

¹⁷ http://www.gtai.de/fdb-SE,MKT200810168007,Google.html

¹⁸ http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ geos/ts.html

¹⁹ http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2010/car0910 10a.htm

²⁰ http://www.english.globalarabnetwork.com/201002014628/ Industry/tunisia-diversifying-trading-partners-shifting-towards-technology-intensive.html

²¹ http://www.airport-technology.com/projects/enfidha/

²² http://www.finmarket.ru/z/nws/news.asp?id-1307899

²³ http://www.oil-price.net/

²⁴ http://www.maghrebarabe.org/en/news.cfm?type=2&id=88

²⁵ http://www.maghrebarabe.org

²⁶ http://www.maghrebarabe.org

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