Yu. V. ZINKINA

Candidate of Historical Sciences Institute of Africa, Russian Academy of Sciences

Tropical Africa Keywords: birth rate, demography, population projections

Between 2010 and 2011, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Demography and Health Research Program ¹ conducted surveys of 5 to 30 thousand households in several African countries. The data obtained allow us to analyze the dynamics of the birth rate and its likely consequences for the development of the demographic situation in the countries of Tropical Africa in the coming decades.

The study of data from 28 countries of the continent provided an opportunity to track the dynamics of the main demographic indicators in the territory covering 70% of the area of Tropical Africa, with the number of inhabitants making up approximately 85% of the region's population.

An analysis of birth rates has shown that many countries in Tropical Africa that entered the second phase of the demographic transition in the second half of the 1970s and early 1990s, ² followed a decline in childbearing during that period in the second half of the 1990s and the first half of the 2000s. A similar phenomenon-the suspension of the birth rate decline-has been observed at various times not only in the countries of Tropical Africa,but also in some countries of Asia and Latin America. ³ However, the specificity of the region under study is that here (as will be shown below) the birth rate, firstly, simultaneously stopped declining in a number of countries and, secondly, "froze" at a very high level-about 5-6 children per woman.

For greater clarity, the initial data of the demography and Health research program used in the analysis of birth rate dynamics in Tropical Africa, as well as the main results of this analysis, are presented in the table. In particular, it reflects the periods when the decline in the birth rate stopped, as well as the dynamics of the birth rate in the next period of time.

Thus, the current demographic situation in the region under study is characterized by the cessation or a strong slowdown in the process of reducing the birth rate long before reaching the level of simple reproduction of the population. This phenomenon has been observed since the mid-1990s in at least 18 of the 28 Countries under review.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that only in three (Ghana, Kenya, Zimbabwe) out of 18 countries, the end of the birth rate decline was observed in the middle of the second phase of the demographic transition (according to the methodology proposed by foreign researchers A. Kreider, D. Shapiro, etc. ⁵, the threshold level should be considered 5 children per 1 woman). In the remaining 15 countries, the decline in the birth rate stalled in the initial stage of the second phase of the demographic transition, i.e. at a very high level - more than 5 children per 1 woman.

Stopping the decline in the birth rate has had negative consequences for the demographic dynamics in the countries affected by this phenomenon. So, in 5 of them (Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria), stagnation continues to this day, i.e. the birth rate has not decreased for 10 to 15 years. In three other countries (Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe), the birth rate, which was already at a high level, began to grow. In turn, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Senegal, Tanzania and Uganda were able to overcome the stagnation and begin to reduce the birth rate again, but at a very slow pace (much slower than before the stagnation period). The most acute demographic situation remains in Malawi, which is caught in stagnation at the very beginning of the second phase of the demographic transition. Only two countries - Madagascar and Rwanda - have been able to recover from the effects of stagnant birth rates and resume their rapid decline.

The approximately ten-year (in most cases) "hitch" with declining birth rates in the second half of the 1990s and the first half of the 2000s will have serious negative consequences for all countries affected by this phenomenon, since it is largely due to the catastrophically rapid population growth predicted for many countries in Tropical Africa in the coming years. decades.

However, the problem of" freezing " the birth rate at a high level, despite its serious consequences in the form of explosive population growth in most countries of the region, only to the smallest extent attracts the attention of the world community. Peak of interest in the demographic situation-

* Countries in the South African region do not face the threat of explosive population growth in the coming decades.

Table

Birth rate dynamics in Tropical Africa (1990s-2000s) ⁴

During the 1970s and early 1990s, 6 By the mid-1990s, it was clear that the birth rate in the region was declining at an increasingly rapid rate. UN experts predicted the stabilization of the population in sub-Saharan Africa at relatively safe levels, and the world community more or less calmed down.

After the International population conference held in Cairo in 1994, the focus of international attention shifted from measures aimed at reducing the birth rate (primarily through the distribution of contraceptives) to improving the reproductive health of the population, etc.⁷ The change in priorities was followed by the closure of contraceptive distribution programs by a number of private foundations. Overall, international financial support for contraception distribution programs decreased from $560 million in 1995 to $460 million in 2003.8

In the mid-1990s, family planning programs developed a powerful "rival" that attracted significant amounts of international financial support.-

Chart. State and forecast of the population in Tropical Africa in comparison with the population of Russia ¹⁰.

as well as the "resource of attention" - the HIV/ AIDS epidemic, which by that time had reached threatening proportions, primarily in the countries of Tropical Africa. Indeed, according to some estimates, between 1995 and 2007, the share of family planning programs in international financial assistance fell from 54% to 5%, while the share of AIDS programs increased from 10% to 85%.

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the decline in the birth rate in most countries of the region slowed significantly or stopped altogether, and in some of them it even began to grow. Moreover, the birth rate "froze" at very high levels: only in a few countries its total coefficient was less than 5 children per 1 woman, in most cases-5.5-6 children per woman. According to the forecasts of the UN Population Bureau, in a number of countries in Tropical Africa, a huge (several-fold) population growth is expected in the coming decades (see chart), which, in turn, is fraught with large-scale socio-demographic disasters.

It follows that the rapid reduction of the birth rate in the region should become a priority of international assistance to the development of this region; it is necessary to focus on effective methods of reducing the birth rate at the population level (dissemination of women's education, not only primary, but also secondary; dissemination of family planning practices, especially in rural areas, etc.). While they are expensive, modeling the demographic future of Tropical Africa shows that for most countries, this is the only way to avoid what is probably the largest humanitarian and demographic catastrophe in the history of the modern world.

¹ The Demography and Health Research Program was launched by the USAID International Aid Organization (USAID) in 1984. More than 260 surveys have already been conducted in more than 90 developing countries around the world.

² The demographic transition, or, according to A. G. Vishnevsky, "the second demographic revolution", is a transition from the traditional type of reproduction, which is characterized by high mortality and high birth rate, to its modern type, characterized by low mortality and low birth rate (Vishnevsky A. G. Selected Demographic works, Vol. 1: Demographic Theory and Demographic theory). history, Moscow, Nauka Publ., 2005). The first stage of demographic transition is accompanied by a transition from the traditional to the modern type of mortality and a radical reduction in mortality. After a significant reduction in mortality, a necessary condition for maintaining demographic balance is a significant reduction in the birth rate and its achievement at the level of simple reproduction of the population - approximately 2.1 children per 1 woman, which occurs during the second phase of the demographic transition.

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