F. V. MALAKHOV
Graduate student
Institute of Africa, Russian Academy of Sciences
Keywords: state export support, export credit agency, Export-Import Bank of China, China's foreign trade policy, Sub-Saharan Africa
The People's Republic of China, which only a few decades ago was located on the periphery of the world economy, in 2014 for the first time became the world's largest economy (GDP at purchasing power parity was $18 trillion)1. The strength of China's global economic position is also evidenced by the fact that the country is one of the world's largest exporters of goods and services, one of the world's leading investors and creditors, and ranks 1st in the world in terms of gold and foreign exchange reserves.2 In particular, China's share in world exports has grown 4-fold over the past decade and a half (from 3% in 2000 to 12% in 2014)3. In absolute value terms, Chinese exports have increased almost 10-fold (from $0.24 billion). up to $2.34 trillion) 4.
One of the successful vectors of China's foreign economic policy has been cooperation with the countries of the "South", based, in fact, on a fundamentally new strategy compared to the existing ones.5 This strategy involves the rejection of political conditions (other than non-recognition of Taiwan's status), mutually beneficial and pragmatic cooperation, demonstrative development of partnership at the highest level, combines planning and coordination from the top, as well as a flexible policy regarding the trade balance with the partner country and the active use of preferential financing.
Despite criticism and complaints against the PRC from foreign countries and the IMF on certain issues of this strategy6, it would be incorrect to deny that, in general, such cooperation contributes to economic development, as well as to the harmonization and depolarization of the world economy. The shift in foreign economic policy to developing countries, as noted in the official reports of Chinese agencies, 7 reflects China's desire to take advantage of the situation during the global crisis to expand its presence in the countries of the South.8
The promotion of China's national interests abroad is carried out within the framework of a more sophisticated version of the "Asian model" of export financing, initially formed in Japan, and then in South Korea. The "Asian model" of financing highlights a number of the following features.
First, the functions of short-term insurance and medium-and long-term lending and guaranteeing are usually divided between two departments. In China, export credit and guarantee services are provided by the Export-Import Bank of China (Eximbank of China-C-EXIM), while export insurance support is provided by the China Export Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure, a division of C - EXIM until 2001). The solution for a large economy like China is really effective (initially, the division of functions was prescribed by the WTO).
In addition to Eximbank and Sinosure Corporation, foreign projects of the China Development Bank (CDB), as well as the foreign economic activity of state-owned commercial banks of China, including the Commercial and Industrial Bank of China (ICBC), the Bank of China (BoC), the China International Development Bank (CDIB), and the Bank of China (BOC), play a significant role in the system of financial assistance and ensuring the export of national export products.
the Property Management Investment Corporation (CITIC).
The second feature of the" Asian model " of export financing is that, with relatively smaller volumes of traditional export credit and guarantee instruments for Western countries, long-term investment loans for the development of foreign activities are actively used, which are not directly linked to export transactions and therefore do not fall under the regulation of the WTO and OECD norms regarding export support (if the country has accepted the country's obligations to comply with them). For example, Eximbank of China's tools distinguish the segment of preferential lending to foreign governments and companies, which includes concessional government loans and export loans on individual terms.9
Among the standard conditions for concessional financing of foreign projects is the recipient's obligation to purchase equipment and materials in China in the amount of at least 50%, as well as a clause on the appointment of Chinese contractors for survey, engineering, construction and other works. In OECD countries, linked development finance is officially prohibited 10 as it violates the principles of competition and causes imbalances in the economy of the recipient country. At the same time, the presence of signs of connectivity is noted both in foreign investment lending to the PRC and in gratuitous official development assistance.11 From this we can conclude that the main volume of foreign loans and grants from state departments of the PRC is directly or indirectly aimed at supporting national exports.
In international regional development banks and funds established with a significant share of China's participation, the country is also motivated to use the provided financing in the interests of supporting national companies.
In particular, the New BRICS Development Bank (NDB), which opened its headquarters in Shanghai in early 2016, can play a potentially significant role in the development of foreign projects with Chinese participation in the BRICS member countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China itself and South Africa) and other developing countries.12
In April 2016, the NBR approved the first package of loans for renewable energy projects in the amount of $811 million, of which $81 million was allocated for projects in China, $180 million in South Africa, and the remaining $550 million. - In Brazil and India 13. China's interest in the NDB as a new financing channel follows, among other things, from the fact that one of the main sources of funding for NDB loans will be five-year bond loans of this bank on the Chinese market in RMB14.
CHINA'S EXPORT FINANCING TO THE SSA
Over the past decade and a half, China has managed to overtake the United States, taking the place that previously belonged to them as the largest-
Chart 1. Positions of the largest exporters and Russia in the SSA countries ' imports: (1-a) by the volume of exports to the region ($ million) and (1-b) by the relative share (in%).
Calculated and compiled by the author on the basis of UN data - http://comtrade.un.org/data/
It is the largest exporter to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
According to our calculations based on United Nations Comtrade statistics, China's exports to the SSA region have grown 23-fold in value terms over the past 14 years (from $3.4 billion in 2000 to $79.7 billion in 2014) .15 Of the top 5 partner exporters in the SSA region, China's exports to the SSA region have grown 23-fold (from $ 3.4 billion in 2000 to $ 79.7 billion in 2014). Including China, the United States, Germany, India, and France, in 2014, China accounted for almost half of these countries ' exports to the region (47.4%).
On diagr. 1-a and diag. 1-b shows that, despite the growth in absolute volumes of exports to the SSA for all the 5 largest trading partners listed above, only the share of China (from 4% in 2000 to 19% in 2014) and India (from 2% to 7%) has grown in relative terms in the SSA export market., respectively). At the same time, the market positions of the United States, France, and Germany weakened by 1 to 6 percentage points during this period, while the share of other exporters also decreased from 69% in 2000 to 59% in 2014.
Using the example of Russia, it is also found that although the absolute volume of domestic exports to the SSA countries increased 5-fold (from $0.3 billion in 2000 to $1.7 billion in 2014), the relative share of Russia in exports to the region remained unchanged and amounted to 0.4%.
Thus, the PRC has increased its market share in exports to the SSA by displacing both traditional leading players in the region and smaller competitors (classified in the SSA. 1-b in the "Other" category).
The central lever of state support for China's exports is the instrument of state export financing. At the same time, other support measures have a stimulating effect on Chinese exports to the SSA countries, including tax breaks for export products, consulting and information services, legal services for Chinese exporters, promotion and protection of their interests at the diplomatic level (more than 10 Chinese investment and trade support centers operate in Africa). Indirectly supporting China's exports to the SSA are programs to promote the creation of special economic zones, mainly aimed at nurturing local competitive export-oriented enterprises based on Chinese industrial experience and on the import of intermediate products from China.
The Russian Africanist T. L. Deitch identifies diplomacy in the form of regular visits at the highest, ministerial and other official levels as a separate tool for implementing China's goals in Africa. The PRC has diplomatic relations with 50 African countries, including South Sudan, and has established a tradition of annual visits to African countries by the Chinese Foreign Minister. 16 Since 2000, the China-Africa Forum has been held in the format of high-level meetings with the participation of heads of state, which defines a short-term roadmap for the development of economic cooperation between China and Africa, framework agreements are signed and funding limits are announced.
There are no official data on the instrumental structure of Chinese export financing in the SSA. At the same time, the analysis of reports on the largest transactions published by the Forum for China-Africa Cooperation, reports on
Figure 2. Official financing of the PRC to the SSA countries in 2001-2012 ($ million).
Compiled by the author based on AidData's Chinese Official Finance to Africa Dataset, 2000-2012, version 1.1.1 http://china.aiddata.org/TUFF_codebook (only confirmed transactions).
Using data from Western export credit agencies, the business press, as well as data from independent statistical projects AidData and the China Africa Research Initiative, it is possible to identify the main features of the mechanisms of financial support for China's exports to the SSA within the framework of the "Asian model" and to assess the amount of funds directly or indirectly allocated to export support.
Foreign experts recognize that only such a method of fragmentary analysis of data from open sources is possible to get an expanded understanding of the financial instruments of state departments of the People's Republic of China17.
The main institution of financial support for exports by volume of operations (see diagr. 2) In the SSA countries, the Chinese version of the "Asian model" is the Eximbank of China. As part of its core business, Eximbank provides loans and guarantees in the SSA to support foreign trade activities to both national exporters and foreign importers, and is also an agent of the Government of the People's Republic of China for issuing concessional state loans and gratuitous official development assistance to the People's Republic of China.
The last two functions are the main feature that distinguishes China's Eximbank from export credit agencies in developed countries. At the same time, the Bank is both a traditional export credit agency and a specially authorized Chinese overseas development bank, which supports individual developing and least developed countries of the world, openly pursuing the foreign economic, including export, interests of national enterprises of the PRC.
EXIMBANK IN UIA
China's Eximbank has two representative offices on the African continent - in Rabat (Morocco) and Johannesburg (South Africa), as well as an office in Ivory Coast.
Expert estimates of the volume of loans provided by the Eximbank of China to the SSA countries differ, on average, by 1.5-2 times. According to our calculations based on data from the AidData project, for the period from 2000 to 2012 (see Figure 2). Eximbank provided medium - and long-term loans worth at least $40 billion to support Chinese foreign trade and investment projects in the SSA 18. Of these, only about $4 billion. - in the form of export credits to importers in the SSA countries, the rest ($36 billion) - other loans to recipients in the SSA, mainly long-term investment loans on concessional terms. Overall, SSA countries accounted for more than 95% of China's Eximbank loans to African countries, according to AidData.
According to another rating agency, Fitch Ratings, Eximbank's financing to African countries in 2001-2010 amounted to $67 billion, which exceeded the total loans to the region from the World Bank in the same period ($55 billion).19
The reason for the discrepancy between AidData and Fitch data may be the difference in calculation methods, accounting for syndicated (issued jointly with other banks) loans, loan forms of financing, gratuitous transfers (not related to official development assistance), as well as the non-inclusion of South Africa in the AidData statistics and the obvious underestimation of AidData transactions in North Africa.
According to the third expert assessment conducted at Johns Hopkins University (a project of the China Africa Research Initiative), C-EXIM provided $86.3 billion in loans to governments and state-owned companies in the SSA countries between 2000 and 2014, including $31 billion. 20 were issued in 2013 and 2014, so the rating is closest to the AidData data.
Three conclusions follow from these estimates.
First, in terms of the average annual volume of loans in the SSA, which is in the range of approximately $3 billion. up to $6 billion. Every year, Eximbank exceeds the volume of lending from Western export credit agencies by ten times. For comparison, the US Eximbank provided $1 billion of loans to SSA 21, or $0.14 billion, between 2008 and 2014. per year, i.e. up to 40 times less than its Chinese competitor.
Second, a fragmentary analysis of the transaction structure showed that C-EXIM uses a relatively small amount of such a traditional export support tool for developed countries as loans to importers for the purchase of Chinese goods. Export loans to the buyer accounted for only a tenth of the total loans of the Eximbank of China to the SSA countries in 2001-2012 ($4 billion out of $40 billion, respectively). It should be noted that the analyzed statistical data do not take into account Eximbank loans provided directly to national exporters in the form of pre-export financing, as well as working capital financing of Chinese exporters, which indirectly support their exports to the SSA. At the same time, in general, according to analysts of the OECD Directorate for Trade and Agriculture, lending to national exporters by C-EXIM is more than 2 times higher in terms of lending to foreign buyers.22
There are two reasons for the relatively lower use of China's export credits to the buyer in the SSA, which is one of the most effective financial mechanisms to support national exporters. On the one hand, after joining the WTO, the CIS-
Chart 3. Dynamics of China's Eximbank lending and exports to SSA (in $ bn).
Compiled by the author on the basis of - Chinese Loans to Africa. China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies - http://www.sais-cari.org/data-chinese-loans-and-aid-to-africa
tai has an obligation to comply with the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures. The agreement imposes a ban on state subsidies for export credits, allowing prices to be set at rates not lower than the market level. The WTO price minimum, in turn, is separately determined by a special ESIA agreement23.
At the same time, China has the financial and administrative-institutional capacity to provide large volumes of foreign loans at below-market rates. As a result, as can be seen in Figure 2, all financing from the Eximbank is divided into export loans (1/10 of the total amount), provided on terms that meet the main parameters of WTO and OECD standards, and other - primarily long-term concession loans (9/10 of the total amount), issued as development assistance. This is confirmed, on the one hand, by the conclusions of analysts of Western agencies-competitors 24, and on the other, by the lack of information over the past few years about arbitration proceedings of the WTO court on claims for underestimation of rates on export credits of China.
In the segment of Chinese "development loans", according to the China Africa Research Initiative, about 30% is accounted for by loans under the so-called "Angolan model" of financing. These are long-term investment loans for purposes determined by the recipient, at a minimum interest rate in exchange for the condition of granting access to Chinese companies to extract minerals in the country or secured by the supply of hydrocarbons and other raw materials to China. 25
The "credits in exchange for raw material extraction" scheme was first applied in large volumes in Angola in the early 2000s and resulted from the convergence of interests of both parties. China's growing industry required new sources of raw hydrocarbons, and the prospect of equity participation in oil production guaranteed reliable supplies and additional income for the country. Overall, between 2002 and 2014, China's total investment in the Angolan economy exceeded $20 billion.
Angola remains the largest recipient of China's SSA funding. According to the China Africa Research Initiative for 2000-2014, the country accounted for 25% of the volume of official C-EXIM loans ($21.2 billion). Other recipients of significant Chinese loans in the SSA include Ethiopia (14% and $12.3 billion), Kenya (6% and $5.2 billion), DRC (6% and $4.9 billion), Republic of Congo (4% and $3.7 billion), Nigeria (4% and $3.5 billion). Ghana (4% and $3.2 billion), Cameroon (3% and $2.9 billion) and Equatorial Guinea (3% and $2.5 billion), as well as Sudan (6.5% and $5.6 billion), which is classified by the project authors as part of the SSA region. The total volume of loans in the 10 countries mentioned above for 2001-2014 amounted to more than $65 billion, or 75% of all official C-EXIM loans to the SSA region.
The average loan term is 17 years with a 6-year grace period for interest payments. Thus, the main volume of loans is provided for significant long-term periods on the most comfortable terms.
The results of export support in the form of lending by the Eximbank of China in the SSA can be traced on the diagr. 3. Let's pay attention to the cyclical nature of the indicator of the ratio of total loans to exports: in the period from 2000 to 2014, the indicator varied in terms of the ratio of total loans to exports.-
It increased from 4% in 2000 to 27% in 2006. The average annual export credit coverage was 17%, which, for comparison, is 2 times more than the same indicator for the US Eximbank in the SSA (8% in 2014) 26.
ADDITIONAL EXPORT FINANCING CHANNELS
China Export Credit Insurance Corporation Sinosure offers two key types of insurance products in support of national exporters: short-term export credit insurance and medium - and long-term export credit insurance.
Analysis of the annual reports published by Sinosure allows us to conclude that the insurance activity of the corporation in the direction of export to the SSA is of a high-risk nature, but, nevertheless, its intensity is growing. The Corporation attributes the shift in the focus of insurance from projects in developed countries to projects in developing countries, including in the SSA region, to the decline in demand in developed countries due to the deterioration of the economic situation. 27
Regarding short-term lending, the following statistics are observed. In 2007, Sinosure incurred the largest short-term project insurance reimbursement expense in Nigeria, amounting to $24.5 million, or 29.7% of all reimbursements for the year. In 2010, Africa accounted for a total of 9% of short-term insurance claims, which is relatively higher than the total share of Chinese export projects insured by the corporation to Africa (5% in 2010). Similarly, in 2009, Nigeria alone accounted for about $11.2 million, or 6% of the corporation's payments for short-term insurance. short-term insurance reimbursements 28, while the share of short-term insured projects in Africa in 2009 was 5.5%.
The China Development Bank (CDB) is second only to the Eximbank of China in terms of medium - and long-term lending in the SSA countries (see fig. 2) due to the specifics of its activities, which consist primarily in supporting regional projects within the PRC. However, along with domestic projects, it provides medium - and long-term financing for foreign projects within the framework of the national Go Global29 strategy.
One of the CDB's responsibilities as an official state-owned development bank controlled by the central government is to promote international business cooperation, promote the interests of Chinese enterprises abroad, and enhance the role of the yuan in international settlements. CDB carries out projects with foreign governments, enterprises and financial institutions in key areas of infrastructure, agriculture, social sectors and energy.
In total, in 2001-2012, according to AidData, the Chinese Development Bank provided direct loans to the SSA countries for various purposes in the amount of about $5 billion. At the same time, the main CDB transactions in the SSA countries are carried out either under the special program for lending to small and medium-sized businesses, or in the form of investments through the China-Africa Development Fund established by CDB.
The China-Africa Development Fund, established by the China Development Bank, has been operating since 2007, including in order to diversify investment financing mechanisms for Chinese businesses and optimize the form of equity participation in projects in Africa, and in early 2016, the China-Africa Industrial Cooperation Fund was also established under the auspices of the Eximbank of China. In 2016, the capital of the China-Africa Development Fund is expected to increase by $5 billion, and the China-Africa Industrial Cooperation Fund-to $10 billion.30
As noted above, the New BRICS Development Bank also has a high potential to support China's foreign projects in the SSA, including taking into account the participation in the BRICS of the main trading partner of the PRC in the SSA - South Africa.
* * *
The significant strengthening of China's export positions in the SSA market is one of the particular manifestations of the change in the model of global economic development, a natural process of qualitative transformation of the world economy. This process, as noted by Russian economists L. L. Fituni and I. O. Abramova, is accompanied by overcoming imbalances and inconsistencies, changing the balance of power between the current actors of the world economy, adjusting the rules of the game and changing the institutional character.31
On the one hand, while China complies with generally accepted agreements, such as WTO rules, in its financial support for exports, on the other hand, it uses the possibility of maintaining its own rules regarding loans and grants in the framework of official development assistance, using linked financing that contradicts only the "club" agreements of individual countries, such as the OECD Agreement. It is the expansion of the activity of China's target agencies in the use of non-conventional financial instruments that is the main and reliable lever of support for national exporters. At the same time, the use of such instruments contradicts the market economy model and, given the large volumes of financing, in the case of debt problems of the credited industries and countries, it poses a serious risk to the state budget.
In the current circumstances, for Western players such as the United States, France and Germany, which only a few years ago were leading the market for exports to the SSA (see fig. 1), now the task is to maintain the previously achieved positions, resorting only to conventional instruments agreed by the countries themselves (mainly export credits to the buyer, guarantees and insurance services on market terms).
For exporting countries that currently do not have a sufficiently prominent position, but have the potential to grow their presence in the SSA, such as Russia, the task is to adjust and develop a targeted export strategy to strengthen their representation in the region, including taking into account the weaknesses and strengths of the experience of Chinese export financing.
1 GDP, РРР (current international $). World Bank Data Site - http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD
2 China - The World Factbook. The Central Intelligence Agency (US) - https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html
3 Calculated by the author on the basis of UN statistics (International Trade Statistics Yearbook. Vol. I. P. 2, 12 - http://comtrade.un.org/pb/downloads/2014/ITSY2014VolI.pdf
4 Ibidem.
Fitpuni L. L. 5 Differentiation of developing countries and the new architecture of the world economy (Issues of theory) / / Asia and Africa Today. 2012. N 10. С. 9 - 18. (Fituni L.L. 2012. Differentsiatsiya razvivayushchikhsya stran i novaya arkhitektura mirovoi ekonomiki // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. N10) (in Russian)
Deick T. D. 6 Kitai "zavoevyvaet" Afriku. M., IAfr RAS, 2014. P. 145. (Deick T. L. 2014. Kitai "zavoevyvaet" Afriku. M.) (in Russian)
7 Annual Report 2011, Sinosure. P. 15 http://www.sinosure.com.cn/
Fitpuni L. L. 8 Economy of Africa: Challenges of post-crisis development. Article 1 / / Asia and Africa today. 2010. N 8. С. 46 - 54. (Fituni L.L. 2008. Ekonomika Afriki: vyzovy postkrizisnogo razvitiya // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. N 8) (in Russian)
9 Loan Facilities - The Export-Import Bank of China -http://english.eximbank.gov.cn/tm/en-TCN/index_640. html
10 Ex Ante Guidance For Tied Aid. Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits. Trade Directorate -OECD. November 21, 2006 - http://www.oecd.org/
Wolf C., Wang X., Warner E. 11 China's Foreign Aid and Government-Sponsored Investment Activities. RAND National Defense Research Institute. P. 7 - http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research reports/RR100/RR118/RAND_RR118.pdf
Klishin V. V., Pavlov V. V. 12 Asiatic Bank of Infrastructural Investments / / Asia and Africa today. 2016. N 6. С. 49 - 54. (Klishin V.V., Pavlov V.V. 2016. Aziatskiy bank infrastrukturnykh investitsiy // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. N 6) (in Russian)
13 New BRICS Development Bank approves first package of loans - http://ria.ru/economy/20160416/1412161995.html
Dasgupta S. 14 BRICS Bank Launches, Boosting China's Influence // The Voice of America. July 21, 2015 - http://www.voanews.com/content/brics-bank-launches-boosting-china-influence/2871693.htm l
15 Calculated by the author on the basis of UN data (United Nations Comtrade - http://comtrade.un.org/data/).
Deutsch T. D. 16 Decree. Op.
17 Export-Import Bank of the United States, Report to the US Congress on Export Credit Competition and the Export-Import Bank of the United States. June 2015. P. 27 - http://www.exim.gov/sites/default/files/reports/EXIM%202014CompetReport_0611.pdf
18 Hereafter, data for the AidData project is calculated from: Dreher Axel, Andreas Fuchs, Roland Hodler, Bradley C. Parks, Paul A. Raschky, and Michael J. Tierney. Aid on Demand: African Leaders and the Geography of China's Foreign Assistance. 2014. AidData Working Paper #3. Williamsburg, VA: AidData - http://china.aiddata.org/TUFF_codebook
Cohen M. 19 China's EXIM Lend More to Sub-Sahara Africa Than World Bank, Fitch Says // Bloomberg. Интернет-изд. 28.12.2011 - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011 - 12 - 28/china-exim-loans-to-sub-sahara-africa-exceed-world-bank-funds-fitch-says.html
20 Hereafter, data for the China Africa Research Initiative project is calculated on the basis of: Chinese Loans to Africa. China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies -http://www.sais-cari.org/data-chinese-loans-and-aid-to-africa
21 Export-Import Bank of the United States. Annual Reports 2008 - 2014 - http://www.exim.gov/news/reports/annual-reports
22 Chinese Export Credit Policies and Programmes. Working Party on Export Credits and Credit Guarantees. Trade and Agriculture Directorate - OECD. March 16, 2015. P. 9.
23 Export Promotion and the WTO: A brief guide -International Trade Center (UN-WTO). Geneva, February 28, 2011. P. 28.
24 Export-Import Bank of the United States... P. 27.
25 Chinese loans to Africa. Credit limit // The Economist. April 30, 2016 - http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21697856-new-data-suggest-china-l ends-less-africa-commonly-assumed-credit
26 Export-Import Bank of the United States. Annual Report 2014. P. 30 - http://www.exim.gov/sites/default/files/reports/annual/EXIM-2014-AR.pdf
27 Annual Report 2011, Sinosure. P. 15 - http://www.sinosure.com.cn/
28 Annual Report 2009... P. 17...
Pigato M., Tang W. 29 China and Africa: Expanding Economic Ties in an Evolving Global Context. Investing in Africa Forum. March 2015 - http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/Event/Africa
Kun L. 30 China launches Industrial Cooperation Fund to assist Africa's Development. CCTV.com, February 4, 2016 -http://english.cntv.cn/2016/02/04/ARTIUFJisN9TuSKqJZj4xWlG160204.shtml
Fitpuni L. L., Abramova I. O. 31 Regularities of formation and change of models of world economic development // Mayo. 2012, N 7. (Fituni L.L., Abramova I.O. 2012. Zakonomernosti formirovaniya i smeny modelei mirovogo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya // MEiMO. N 7) (in Russian)
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