Edited by V. N. Kolotoe. St. Petersburg, 2013, 778 p. (in Russian)

Eastern Faculty of St. Petersburg.GU and the Ho Chi Minh Institute (Vietnam) published a collective monograph on the security problems of modern Asia and North Africa, prepared following the results of the international scientific conference "Actual Problems of regional security in East Asia", which was held with the support of St. Petersburg State University.State Institution 6 April 7 2012

Much attention was paid to security issues in East and South-East Asia, territorial conflicts in the South China Sea and threats that arise in this regard and actually go beyond the borders of this region, being associated with Sino-American rivalry.

M. L. Titarenko (IDV RAS) in his article "Modern security problems in East Asia and the Asia-Pacific region as a whole" noted the aggravation of the US-China contradictions in the Asia-Pacific region. After fairly close cooperation between the two countries in the 1980s, when the United States sought to strengthen Beijing's position in the confrontation with the USSR, Washington's policy towards China has shifted due to US concerns about the rapid growth of China's power, which poses a threat to US national interests. Taking revenge for the purposeful strengthening of the US military presence in East Asia, M. L. Titarenko, however, concludes that neither the US nor China intend to increase the confrontational potential in bilateral relations. In his opinion, the Russian Federation is now focused on strengthening cooperation with China, especially since many observers pay attention to the growing tacit rivalry between the two countries in Central Asia. The author sees a way out in finding ways of effective cooperation and co-development between the SCO, EurAsEC, and CSTO (p. 41)and considers far-fetched talk about the threats that China poses to Russia.

Rightly pointing out that most Asian countries welcome the constructive participation of the Russian Federation in solving regional problems and see Russia as an important stabilizing factor, Titarenko believes that the weak link in this regard is the economic position of the Russian Federation in the Asia-Pacific region, where the country's economic weight and role in integration processes are of paramount importance. Russia accounts for no more than 1.5% of the Asia-Pacific region's foreign economic transactions, and the GDP of the region's leading countries is equally incomparable to that of Russia (E. 28-29).

D. V. Mosyakov's article "China's Policy towards Southeast Asian countries" indicates that the general impulse of Chinese pressure in this region "looks like a combination of an emotional and historical reading of the previous history and specific benefits and interests of today's policy... This momentum is very difficult to stop, as it is part of the national historical tradition, which today is also reinforced by the need for the PRC to constantly expand its raw materials and commodity markets in order to maintain the continuity of economic growth." And further: "... outward expansion in search of new commodity and raw material markets is a natural element of China's modern coexistence and survival, and the example of the Southeast Asian countries here can only be a special case of this historical trend" (p.87).

Having covered in detail the growing military presence and military activity of the PRC in the South China Sea and Southeast Asia as a whole, the author points out that today the course towards establishing China's supremacy in Southeast Asia is increasingly filled with a military component. In this situation, the United States, having sensed the request of political forces concerned about the growth of Chinese power

While the majority of the region's elites are positioning themselves as a counterweight to Chinese claims, the US-China rivalry is escalating and the ASEAN member states are beginning to get involved in it in one way or another (p.92).

V. N. Kolotov (St. Petersburg)GU) in the article "The East Asian arc of instability as the main element of the regional security system" points out that the Sino-American confrontation in Southeast Asia has a deforming effect on this region. He cites the failure of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers ' meeting in Phnom Penh in 2012, which failed to agree on the text of the final declaration (on the South China Sea) for the first time in 45 years. Although, in the end, the declaration was adopted, "ASEAN is no longer considered by experts as a monolithic block of Southeast Asian countries that can withstand the pressure of China and the United States. The cracks have already started, and this is an alarming signal " (pp. 64-65). According to V. N. Kolotov, Southeast Asia is turning into a kind of "battleground" primarily between the United States and China, which are activating their allies and partners. At the same time, the more China insists on its unilateral control over the South China Sea, the more international opposition Beijing will face, the more US influence in China's southern "underbelly" will increase, and the more questionable will be the future of the entire Chinese project in Southeast Asia" (p. 70). Considering the probability of Vietnam choosing between orientation towards China and rapprochement with the United States, the author considers the latter option to be quite realistic.

Carlisle Thayer (University of New South Wales, Australia) in his article "Sovereignty Disputes in the South China Sea Diplomacy, Legal Regimes and Realpolitik" provides extensive and well-organized factual and documentary material on territorial conflicts and international relations in Southeast Asia. The author considers it unlikely that the ASEAN countries will be able to create by 2015. The ASEAN Community, which involves political, defense, economic and socio-cultural interaction. K. Thayer believes that the ties and mutual obligations of some Association countries with the United States, as well as differences in the approaches of some countries to territorial conflicts in the South China Sea and China's policy will hinder the effectiveness of such a community. Having listed a number of conflict situations that have arisen in the sea areas of Southeast Asia in recent years, the author comes to the conclusion that China is at the center of all maritime security challenges. "This leads to the fact that the states of the region are turning towards the United States in search of a counterweight to China. The result could be the spread of great-Power rivalry to Southeast Asia, which would undermine the region's self-reliance and the central role that ASEAN plays in regional security" (p.349).

However, Pham Qui Long (Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences), in his article "Some discussion on the mechanism for security cooperation in the East Asia context", considers the growing US presence leading to polarization within the ASEAN community to be one of the main problems hindering security in Southeast Asia (pp. 219-220).

In the article" Collective Security of ASEAN and the World Order", Hemapanda Phra Chatri (St. Petersburg State University), describing the cooperation between ASEAN and China as close, notes four opposing factors:: 1) ASEAN countries 'concerns about China's growing power; 2) territorial disputes in the South China Sea and their possible impact on ASEAN - China relations; 3) differences in the ASEAN countries' approaches to cooperation with China, which hinder the development of a unified position on this issue; 4) the rapprochement between ASEAN and China, which can lead to the development of a new economic model. It may be perceived by the United States and Japan as an attempt by China to strengthen its influence in the region, and it will be difficult for ASEAN to balance between these three countries (p. 459).

Hemapanda Phra Chatri positively assesses the current state and prospects for the development of relations between the Russian Federation and the ASEAN countries in the political and economic spheres, including the fight against terrorism. "In the foreseeable future, the Asia-Pacific region, including the Russian Far East, will be the most intensively developing region in the world and the most attractive for investors" (p. 461). He believes that the partnership between Russia and ASEAN is based on mutual financial benefits, economic interdependence and will acquire new formulas and incentives as Russia develops its Far East.

Vietnamese authors paid close attention to China's policy in the region. Le Van Mi (Institute of Chinese and Vietnamese Studies) In the article "Some Reflections on Regional Security in East Asia", he points out that the 1990s were a "golden" period for the PRC in terms of expanding its influence in the South China Sea region. "China is gradually filling up-

There was a power vacuum in the region, because Russia as a whole was withdrawn from the affairs of Southeast Asia, and the United States was mainly occupied with the affairs of Europe and the Middle East" (p.228). According to Le Van Mi, China's actions to strengthen its influence in the South China Sea are becoming one-sided, becoming "aggressive and assertive" (p. 229).

The article" Troubled waters" and positions of ASEAN member-states " by La Thi Thanh Huong (Institute of Southeast Asian Studies of Vietnam Autonomous Region) describes in detail, with references to numerous documents, the problem of territorial disputes in the South China Sea, in particular around the Spratly Islands. The author believes that China's policy pushed the Southeast Asian countries into an arms race, citing extensive military programs adopted by the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam (pp. 496-97). Rising military spending will negatively affect the pace of economic and social development of ASEAN countries, and the arms race threatens to spiral out of control and lead to clashes at sea.

Vo Kim Kyong (Vietnam's NAM), in his article "The strategic rivalry between the US and China in the South China Sea and Vietnam's position", is generally skeptical about the US's ability to play a positive role in easing tensions in the region: "Despite the significant improvement in US-Vietnamese relations, partnership with China is of greater strategic importance for the US than for Vietnam. than relations with Vietnam... The United States and China could compete, but they are more inclined to compromise; in these circumstances, small countries are at a disadvantage " (p. 345). The author believes that Vietnam should maintain a balance in its relations with the United States and China.

V. Ya. Portyakov (IDV RAS), in his article "On some features of China's Foreign Policy in 2009-2011," believes that the neighboring belt around China remains the main area of projection and implementation of China's state interests in the international arena, and it is here that various kinds of friction and misunderstandings caused by Beijing's assertive actions in the region are most focused. 2009-2010 According to the author, after 2010 Beijing is carrying out a well-known "repair" of relations with Japan, India and the Southeast Asian countries. At the same time, the escalation of conflicts in the South China Sea has created a pretext for US intervention in the situation under the pretext of "protecting freedom of navigation." The United States actually offered the ASEAN countries, both claiming any islands in the South China Sea, and simply fearing the increased power and assertiveness of China, to activate ties with Washington, especially in the military sphere, as a kind of insurance against risks.

Most authors are cautious about ASEAN's ability to resolve conflicts in the South China Sea. Amer Ramses, a researcher at Stockholm University, in his article "Approaches to Management and Settlement of Inter-State Disputes in Southeast Asia Implications for Regional Collaboration", believes that these opportunities are limited by both internal and external factors. Of the 10 members of the Association, five claim certain islands, their relations with China are different, and they do not always share the same views on the role of this country in the region. Moreover, the relations of some of them with the PRC are characterized by periodic aggravations (p. 401). The author provides a detailed list of documents related to the activities of ASEAN.

In this context, I will quote the position of the Singapore Government. Prime Minister Lee Hsiang Loong said that his country supports a long-term and unquestionable US presence in Southeast Asia and that the presence of the US 7th Fleet has a stabilizing effect. "Given the current tensions between China and Japan, as well as between some ASEAN countries around the islands in the South China Sea, the US presence encourages the respective countries to exercise restraint,"he said.¹. It is noteworthy that the Singapore leader feels that his country is under threat not so much from external powers as from its neighbors and partners in ASEAN.

However, not all Southeast Asian countries tend to rely on the US presence as a stabilizing factor. Washington's own interests in this area of the world are too great to be trusted with impartiality. K. M. Barsky, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation to the SCO, believes that some countries, while actively strengthening and modernizing their armed forces (including Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam), are guided not only by real threats in the face of, say, international terrorism, but also by trivial suspicion of their own interests. neighbors.

^{The Sunday Times} 1 (Singapore). 17.03.2013.

Unfortunately, this suspicion is caused by quite real reasons, including obvious and latent territorial disputes, as K. M. Barsky points out (p.49). However, the case is not limited to the South China Sea. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Minister of Defense of Indonesia Purnomo Yusgiantoro said that in 2014 the armed forces of this country will be the most powerful in Southeast Asia, in particular due to the acquisition of Leopard tanks, combat helicopters, Su aircraft, etc. At the same time, he made a remarkable reservation that this is not related to the plans to create US combat bases in Singapore and Australia.²

We should agree with the opinion of B. C. Yagya (St. Petersburg State University), expressed in the "Greetings to the participants of the conference on Security in East Asia": "Many countries, seeing the sad fate of Muammar Gaddafi, who refused to build an atomic bomb and delivery vehicles in exchange for a guarantee of security and economic advantages, wondered if the United States would have participated, Great Britain, France and NATO forces in the anti-Gaddafi coalition, if Muammar Gaddafi has nuclear weapons " (pp. 16-17). As far as we know, no country in Southeast Asia is going to acquire nuclear weapons, but the fate of Gaddafi and Hussein encourages their leaders to be cautious when it comes to Western guarantees, and to diversify their ties, in particular sources of weapons. More broadly, the West's unilateral intervention in the internal conflicts of third countries encourages an arms race.

One can understand why the problems of Southeast Asian countries ' relations with China and security in its military-political aspect have unwittingly pushed into the background other equally important factors underlying long-term security. However, V. M. Mazyrin (IDV RAS) in his article "Actual problems of economic security of the ASEAN countries" rightly points out that it is impossible to assess the level of security in a particular country or region without analyzing the economic situation. The economic crisis of 2008-2011 showed that the economies of the Southeast Asian countries continue to depend on Western markets, and one might even say that they remain the financial and technological periphery of the industrialized countries. Their economic growth is vulnerable, being based on export orientation. At the same time, he notes that anti-crisis measures were usually implemented with a delay, moreover, without coordination with other ASEAN members, thereby reducing the possible effect of common efforts (p.414). Pointing out that the crisis, for a number of reasons, affected the economies of Southeast Asia to a lesser extent than in other regions of the world, V. M. Mazyrin, however, writes: "The crisis has clearly revealed that the degree of stability in the ASEAN countries remains insufficient, including due to the region's economy's close connection to the traditional markets of the United States and Europe" (p.440).

J. T. Engelbert (Institute of Asian and African Studies, University of Hamburg) in his article "The Future of Southeast Asia's Ethnic Minorities in a Globalized World" raises a problem that only at a superficial glance may not seem directly related to the topic included in the title of this collection. Considering the future of ethnic minorities in Southeast Asian countries, he points out that racial, ethnic and sectarian conflicts generated by insufficiently thought-out policies for resettling excess populations (as was the case in Indonesia) or uneven socio-economic development of regions (the Moro problem in the Philippines) are present in almost all States of the region. The author rightly points out that different ASEAN countries have different views on fundamental human rights and the institutionalization of these rights in general and the rights of minorities in particular is proceeding at different rates. There is also no unified approach to freedom of expression and information within ASEAN. In the Association's documents, Y. T. writes. Engelbert, we do not find a single word about the rights of ethnic or religious minorities or the right of nations to self-determination, the most sensitive issues in almost all Southeast Asian States (p. 487).

I would like to add that the conflicts that arise in these areas are most often characterized by a mutual overlap of social, ethnic and religious factors. This not only makes the situation more explosive, but also takes it beyond national borders. The factor of religious or ethnic solidarity, which is inherently cross-border, can lead to increased tension in relations between neighboring countries, as we see inside ASEAN, and even open conflicts.

The author notes the special position of Chinese and Indian ethnic minorities in Southeast Asia, given their influential positions in the economies of their respective countries, and

^{Suara Karya Online.} 2 06.09.2013.

At the same time, he points out that the situation of these minorities largely depends on the nature of relations between their host countries and China or India (p.476).

Only a few articles in the collection are devoted to the situation in individual countries. So, in the article by E. V. Pugacheva (Spb.GU) "Relations of the Kingdom of Thailand with neighboring countries in the context of the regional security system" examines the relations of Thailand with neighboring states, paying special attention to the relations of this country with Cambodia and Malaysia. In the case of Cambodia, the author points out that "the mutual hatred of the two nations is more a product of manipulation of the public consciousness by the political elite than the result of the troubled historical past of the neighbors." At the same time," the aggressive behavior of both countries has called into question the security of the entire ASEAN region " (p.520), despite all the current documents of this organization.

As for Malaysia, the ethnic and religious characteristics of the population of the border areas of Thailand, where Muslims predominate, create constant tension, which, as the author notes, is aggravated by the participation of Thailand together with the United States in the war on terrorism, which many Muslims perceive as a "war on Islam" (p. 523). that the central government of Malaysia is vitally interested in stability in the border areas of the country with Thailand, fearing the creation of favorable conditions for the activities of regional terrorist groups like Jemaah Islamiyah (p.525), while Malaysia, in the author's opinion, is not yet ready to seriously combat this danger (p. 530).

A. I. Pyleva (St. Petersburg State University) examines Thailand's relations with France in the general context of regional security in Southeast Asia (pp. 535-557). The presence and role of France in this region of the world rarely comes to the attention of our researchers. The author managed to collect and make public many interesting facts in this area.

An article by G. T. Tyun and N. A. Starostin (St. Petersburg State University) was devoted to the problems of the largest country in the region of Indonesia. The title itself is characteristic - "Expanding international partnership as a way to ensure the security of modern Indonesia". This approach seems fruitful: while not an absolute guarantee, diversified and active economic ties of a particular country undoubtedly increase the interest of the world community, including the great Powers, in maintaining stability in and around it. "Partnership with Western companies has always been and remains an important element in the development of industry, and at the same time - an essential aspect of maintaining security" (p.571). The authors of the article cite a large amount of factual material, in particular on the Indonesian oil industry, although the role of this industry has been declining in recent years and Indonesia has been a net importer of petroleum products for a number of years, which creates a lot of economic and political difficulties.

The authors deservedly paid much attention to Russian-Indonesian relations. Unfortunately, this may be more about prospects, since the real volume of mutual trade and investment is significantly lower than the share of Indonesia's main partners.

The authors rightly point out: "A serious circumstance is... that the United States, in order to counter China's growing influence in Southeast Asia, needs Indonesia and its market" (p. 577). The fact is, however, that Indonesian leaders are trying to avoid a situation where the country would become a hostage to Sino-American rivalry. In recent years, we have witnessed active Indonesian-Chinese contacts and cooperation at all levels, including trade, investment and the military.

There is another factor at work. Judging by some indications, the Indonesian leadership fears that the growing US presence in Southeast Asia may be used to unilaterally promote American interests in this area of the world (this was partly mentioned above). The events in Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan made quite a deep impression here. It should be added that the political psychology of the Indonesian elite (and a significant number of Indonesians) is characterized by the idea of their country as an undisputed regional leader and a prominent participant in all world processes. Any diminution of political independence is incompatible with this self-assessment. Unfortunately, the authors are very brief about such a delicate and sensitive issue as the role and place of the Chinese community in Indonesia. Over the past 15 years, democratic reforms in Indonesia have removed many obstacles to strengthening the real political role of this economically powerful group of the Indonesian population.

The book in question is a very valuable and voluminous publication (not only in terms of the number of pages - about 800, but also in terms of a combination of different views and approaches) due to the abundance of extremely important documentary and factual material. It can certainly be used by people involved in both scientific activities and practical politics. Perhaps the only drawback of the publication is the poor editing of texts and the lack of professional proofreading work. But much more regrettable is the small print run - only 150 copies. In terms of its significance, the professionalism of the authors, the depth of analysis, and its usefulness to a wide range of readers, the book deserves more. It provides rich food for further monitoring and research of the national security problems of the Southeast Asian countries and-by analogy-other regions of the world.

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