In March of this year, the Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted a scientific conference "Ways to modernize the economy of developing countries in Africa". About 20 reports on various problems of economic modernization of the continent's countries, prepared by leading Russian Africanists, were presented.

They discussed, in particular, the conceptual features and possibilities of practical implementation of modernization models; changes in the ratio of traditional and modern in the course of socio-economic development of individual countries and regions of Africa; the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the process of modernization of the continent, primarily in the mineral resource complex; problems of transfer and introduction of advanced technologies in Africa.

AFRICAN-STYLE MODERNIZATION

E. V. Morozenskaya (Ph. D. in Economics, IAfr RAS) described the concepts of "modernization" and" progress " and highlighted their features in relation to the conditions of Africa. At first glance, economic modernization as a process of improving the material life of society looks like a complex of unidirectional measures in the field of macroeconomic policy. However, practice demonstrates both the multiplicity of ways to carry out modernization and the ambiguity of its results in different social, political and economic conditions.

Moreover, a model of social transformation that is successful over a certain period of time may lose its qualities and become a brake on progressive development. This is especially evident in the modern era of globalization, when the "pros" and" cons "of foreign political and, especially, economic experience are not only quickly adopted by countries that are not adapted for this, but also have a" reflected " impact on world economic processes, layered on cyclical changes in the world economy. This puts them in need of another modernization caused not only by a change in the technological order, but also by current changes in the global economy.

Africa in 2010-2013 could not but be affected by the almost twofold drop in global GDP growth (from 4.1% to 2.1%), which caused a certain suspension of world trade. In this context, the modernization of the continent's countries could be driven by stimulating domestic demand and strengthening the public sector, as well as developing regional trade.

The strengthening of globalization is accompanied by the revival and strengthening of regionalism, focusing on local characteristics. In African countries, the influence of traditional institutions - especially the community and the urban informal sector-is growing.

I. V. Sledzevsky (Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, IAfr RAS) presented the key problem of the crisis of the catch-up modernization model in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Over the past 10 to 15 years, being on the periphery of world politics and economy, the SSA has become a primary area of interest for both the traditional main partners of African countries (the United States, Great Britain, France, and the EU) and the new world heavyweights (China, India, and Brazil). All these countries are striving to strengthen and expand their positions in the region.

In the new geo-economic context, "endogenous models" are being formed, which assume that African countries maintain their identity based on their own social structures. At a time when, against the background of GDP growth, there is no conversion of economic growth into social development, global challenges are increasing, the region is being drawn into resource wars, socio-political instability is growing, and dependent modernization is being formed.

Although huge resources have been invested in modernization projects in African countries and various international structures have been created, the application of the catch-up development model has increased the negative consequences of introducing SSA countries to the world market. The weakest link turned out to be West, East and Central Africa, which show, in fact, anti-development. There is an imitation modernization, or outright borrowing of the idea of a "nation-state", and this is a national identity of the European type (African countries are the"fourth world").

African countries need to adapt to the catch-up development crisis. The potential for proper African development - the self-organization of Africans-is formed "from below" (at the level of cultural "soil"). The challenge is to mobilize this potential and make it consolidated and constructive, not only at the level of individual States, but also at the level of African regional communities. At the same time, the social modernization of African societies has been and remains a key problem.

E. A. Bragina (Doctor of Economics, IMEMO RAS) analyzed the difficulties of building modern institutions during the modernization of African countries. In the context of growing interest in its natural resources, especially energy and human resources (according to the UN forecast, until 2100 the continent will hold the first place in the world in terms of population growth), the role of formal, especially state, and informal institutions is increasing. Until the 1990s, their impact on the modernization of African countries was almost ignored, but now it attracts special attention. And since formal institutions are long ties and informal ones are short ones (cronyism, which promotes corruption), it seems that they exist in parallel, but in fact they are intertwined, turning power into rent and forming "implicit knowledge" (nepotism).

As the "catch-up development" model becomes depleted, other possible directions are considered. Among them is "jobless recovery", which provides for the reduction of the middle and lower levels of the labor force. In sub-Saharan Africa, this can lead to a narrowing of the domestic market and, as a result, to an increase in urbanization and an increase in open unemployment. Meanwhile, it is already part of the NEETS group (a new category introduced by the OECD that unites non-studying and non-working young people). 21.6% of young people live in the region. This excess labor potential is concentrated in the informal sector.

The dualism inherent in the socio-economic environment of Asian and African countries is constantly being reproduced. Therefore, whatever model they choose, it does not work (just as the ILO standards on the 8-hour working day, etc., adopted at the time, do not work). Institutional innovations generated by a qualitatively different political and economic environment in these countries are either rejected, partially implemented, or mimicked (preserving the external shell, they are filled with other content).

MODELS: NEOLIBERAL? CHINESE?

Polemicizing with supporters of the predominant influence of the "invisible hand of the market" in the African economy, E. N. Korendyasov (Ph. D. in Economics, IAfr RAS) asked whether there is an alternative to the neoliberal model that prevails in the modern world and is used in the economic development strategies of most African countries. The consequences of implementing these strategies on the continent are mostly negative. Meanwhile, the role of the State in Africa is still very important, while the influence of traditions is also great. Under these conditions, it is almost impossible to carry out a Western-style democratization based on the dictatorship of the law, while it is necessary to use a system of coercion. The community in Sub-Saharan Africa has not yet become a society: traditions play the role of laws, hierarchy remains. The rejection of the traditional system of community relations can provoke the growth of fundamentalism and fanaticism.

Recently, there has been a widespread approach in the literature, according to which it is necessary to gradually include the new in the context of local conditions, or "contextualization". It is also possible to use the concept of "social dynamism" (R. Greenberg), when the state and private entrepreneurship act in cooperation on the basis of market relations.

T. L. Deitch (Doctor of Historical Sciences, IAfr RAS), speaking about the possibilities of using the Chinese model of economic modernization in Africa, noted that the recipes that have proved themselves in China to solve acute problems - eliminating poverty, improving agricultural efficiency, creating its own industrial base, protecting trade interests in the face of growing competition in world markets, African governments are also trying to apply it. However, this is more likely not a universal model, but one of the" three whales " of Beijing's policy in Africa, along with the desire to provide the Chinese economy with raw materials and markets for Chinese goods and services.

At the same time, the Chinese model itself - a certain alternative to traditional Western models - is often considered by Africans (for example, in Ethiopia) as a role model, the modernization policy is based on borrowing the successful Chinese experience. Thus, the main elements of the Chinese model-the development of foreign trade, the increase in foreign investment-are considered effective in South Africa and a number of other countries on the continent.

IN THE CONTEXT OF THE "ARAB SPRING"

Some results of the implementation of the economic modernization policy were analyzed at the conference in relation to the Middle East, North Africa and South Africa. A. A. Tkachenko (Ph. D. in Economics, IAfr RAS) believes that the processes of modernization of the vast Arab East, one of the most important geopolitical regions of the world, occupy a special place among the key megatrends of civilizational development. He stressed that the current state of the Arab world and all aspects of its modernization are influenced by such characteristic features of the countries of North Africa and the Middle East (closely related to their historical past) as the slow type of transformational changes, the aggravation of contradictions between the archaic and modern.

In this regard, the choice of methodology used for modernization analysis is particularly important. First of all, the very definition of the concepts of "progress" and "regression" is debatable, especially in connection with the differences in the ideological and ideological preferences of researchers. According to A. A. Tkachenko, the most important characteristics of modernization include: the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators, the degree of development of the political system, the level of internal political stability, and the main social indicators (per capita income, the level of unemployment).-

tci, human development index, etc.).

Finally, it is advisable to identify the existence and degree of interdependence, as well as the priority of modernization indicators in each of the three areas - economic, political and social. Most likely, they will differ significantly by country (taking into account their specifics and the specific situation). But it will be possible to establish: modernization of all spheres of public life is necessary, or only the economy. This is especially important when choosing a national development strategy for the least developed countries, which suffer from a lack of highly qualified personnel, practical experience, financial resources, etc. However, postponing political reforms "until better times" is associated with the refusal to improve the investment climate, which is fraught with the threat of not only an economic but also a systemic political crisis.

Developing this position, V. Y. Kukushkin (Ph. D. in Economics, IAfr RAS) described the negative consequences of the "Arab Spring" for the short-term prospects of modernization of countries exporting hydrocarbons in North Africa. He noted that a series of socio-economic, political and military shocks in 2011-2014 had serious negative consequences, affecting key sectors of the oil and gas sector, as well as trends and prospects for economic development - either directly (in Libya, Sudan and South Sudan, Egypt), or indirectly, as in Algeria.

Although it is believed that the six Arabian oil monarchies that are members of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf demonstrate the greatest compliance with the model of a modern "rentier state", it is Algeria that ranks first in the region during the "Arab Spring" in terms of one of the main signs of a "rentier state"-the activity of the state budget in the process of redistributing gross product. Therefore, without radical structural reforms, the ANDR will not be able to get rid of the consequences of the "resource curse", although it manifests itself in somewhat milder forms than in Libya, Sudan and South Sudan.

OPPORTUNITIES FOR INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT

Yu.S. Skubko (Ph. D. in Economics, IAfr RAS) described the implementation of the country's innovative development program for 2008-2018 "From Innovation to the Knowledge Economy", adopted in 2007, as half - planned. Despite the development and implementation of new technologies envisaged by the program (by increasing R & D expenditures and doubling their share in GDP), as well as improving the pace and quality of economic growth (by increasing the contribution of scientific and technological progress to economic growth from 10 to 30%), there is no doubt that this program will fail. For example, in 2010, a multibillion-dollar innovation project was closed, and almost all of its 1,500 scientists, engineers, and technicians emigrated. Spending on scientific research-both public and private-has decreased.

Despite some positive developments (the removal of previous barriers that restricted freedom of information and movement), there is a systemic - social, economic, cultural and technological - regression. In fact, while maintaining the same "innovative" rhetoric, the model of scientific and technological development of the country has changed. The focus on creating our own cutting-edge technologies, which in many cases are commercially unprofitable, is increasingly being replaced by a market-based mechanism for reducing costs by switching to importing cheap, second-rate technologies.

However, despite the fact that a corruption model is being implemented in South Africa today, the real opportunities for innovative development of the country are still not exhausted, and the objective conditions for its financing are created by a growing global shortage of raw materials, which means a long-term prospect of rising prices for the main goods of South African exports.

I. B. Matsenko (Ph. D. in Economics, IAfr RAS) analyzes the difficult financial situation and factors of sustainable "progress" in the economic development of individual least developed countries (LDCs) in Africa. Most of the African LDCs do not have any proven mineral resources or any developed extractive industries. The share of manufacturing in the GDP of this group of countries has steadily declined (from 12% in 1980 to 6.6% in 2009), reaching the lowest level in the world. A significant number of African LDCs have become net food importers. Almost 80% of their total exports come from commodities, mainly oil.

Despite unprecedented GDP growth in 2000-2008. (on average, about 7% per year), a return to it in the medium term is unlikely. This is a consequence of rising agricultural commodity prices, increased investment in infrastructure development, improved political conditions, and increased FDI, as well as remittances, official development assistance (ODA), and debt relief. The main reason is the lack of financial resources, primarily due to limited internal savings. FDI remains the mainstay of LDC economic growth, with a high rate of return of about 13% (the figure for all developing countries is 8%). Net ODA to LDCs declined by 13% in 2012, but there was a marked increase in Southern financial assistance and migrant remittances.

A significant part of the LDC budget resources is spent on debt servicing, which hinders increased investment in the social sphere, and thus the fight against poverty and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.

Future progress in LDCs is possible if infrastructure improvements and productivity gains are made, especially in agriculture. In addition to favorable global commodity prices,

As a result of increased FDI inflows and improved economic management, long-term economic growth in Africa will increasingly depend on domestic socio-demographic factors.

INVESTMENT STRATEGY PRIORITIES

Several reports were devoted to the impact of foreign direct investment on the modernization of the mineral resource complex in Africa. Thus, G. E. Roshchin (Doctor of Economics, IAfr RAS) spoke about the structure and trends of foreign capital inflows to Africa. FDI flows to Africa were particularly strong in the extractive sector. It totaled $50 billion in 2012, including $38.5 billion in SSA countries that attract investors with their wealth of mineral resources and higher investment returns.

FDI inflows can be supported by GDP growth in Africa. However, a number of factors will negatively affect the export of FDI from developed countries. Structural problems in their own economies and in the global financial system, as well as difficulties in the banking sector, can lead to additional problems for TNCs, which will find it difficult to raise capital for cross-border projects. At the same time, more than 60% of all FDI in Mozambique, Botswana, Swaziland, Lesotho, Malawi, DRC is carried out by South African investors.

African countries consider FDI as an important channel of access to resources for the development and modernization of the economy, overcoming the economic and technological gap with global economic centers. At the same time, although the global interests of TNCs and the development goals of host countries do not always coincide, the degree of trade liberalization and competition in host countries is very important. Increased competition is directly related to technological modernization, as well as to the level of training in developing countries.

N. N. Tsvetkova (Ph. D., Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences) focused on the role of FDI in the modernization of the oil-producing industry in Tropical Africa. In 2012, seven countries - South Africa, Nigeria, the Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Equatorial Guinea, Zambia and Tanzania-accounted for 72% of the book value of all FDI in the region. At the same time, the share of foreign companies in oil and gas production increased from 35.4% to 57.2% in 1995-2005.

FDI in new projects is usually accompanied by the transfer of technologies and managerial experience, which contributes to the modernization of the relevant industry, the creation of new production facilities, training of the workforce, and improving its skills. At the same time, there is a multiplier effect: for example, investment in oil production increases the income of employees, who, in turn, invest in the purchase of housing, which increases the income of builders, etc.

However, since the oil industry is one of those industries with a high capital intensity of production, where a small number of qualified personnel operate automated installations, the multiplier effect of investment in this industry is lower than that of investment in labor-intensive manufacturing industries. By contributing to the modernization of the oil-producing industry in African countries, FDI makes it possible, when implementing appropriate policies, to use increased budget revenues for economic diversification, infrastructure development, and the creation of new jobs. However, in general, the multiplier effect of the development of the oil industry in these countries is not very high, and a significant part of the population of these countries is left out of the modernization processes.

The conference discussed various forms of FDI participation from different countries in the economic modernization of Africa. According to T. L. Deitch, China invests a lot of money: from 2009 to 2012, the accumulated FDI on the continent increased from $9.33 to $21.23 billion. The PRC invests not only in the mineral resource complex, but also in enterprises for processing raw materials and in related sectors of the economy, primarily in infrastructure, as well as in the social sphere (training personnel and creating new jobs). Aid packages are also used: China provides loans and credit lines for infrastructure projects in exchange for access to African raw materials (for example, in Angola , the largest oil exporter to China).

Projects implemented by Chinese companies in Sudan are financed through Chinese loans or commercial investments. China provided South Sudan with a grant for the implementation of development projects ($31.5 million) and a loan for the implementation of infrastructure projects ($8 billion). Agreements were signed on investments in hydropower, agriculture, healthcare, and education.

Nigeria is the leader among African recipients of investment from China (in 2012, it exceeded $10 billion), mainly in the oil industry. In exchange for raw materials, China directs investments to modernize the African economy, not only in "prestigious" sectors, but also in industries that are considered too expensive by the West: in Ghana (construction of a gas corridor), the DRC (in addition to mining copper and cobalt ores, highways and other infrastructure facilities, hospitals are built), South Africa (in addition to mineral extraction, funds have been established to finance health, education, and poverty reduction).

Chinese investments are more attractive to Africans than Western ones, in particular, because they are not conditioned by improving the quality of public administration and tax discipline, eliminating corruption, etc.

According to V. V. Pavlov (Doctor of Economics, Professor, IAfr RAS), the priorities of the US investment strategy in Africa in 2010-2013 were African countries with rich natural resources, access to the sea coast and relatively stable economic conditions.-

automatic modes. Among them are Angola, Liberia, Mauritius, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, South Africa (they accounted for about $2.2 billion in 2010, or more than 80% of the total volume of US private FDI in Africa), as well as Algeria, Ghana, the Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Kenya, Libya, Morocco. Up to 60% of total US FDI to the continent comes from the mining industry, primarily oil (after 2015, Africa will account for at least 25% of US oil imports). Therefore, the main volume of investment is concentrated in Nigeria and Angola. Other areas of application of American private capital (as of 2010) are financial holdings, manufacturing, banking institutions, and retail companies.

The investment codes of African countries guarantee preferential treatment for US FDI in the oil and mining sectors: despite the risks, there are still high levels of return on investment (up to 28-30%). The volume of FDI actually realized in the manufacturing industry of African countries is insignificant: by 2010-no more than $3.55 billion in the primary processing of mineral raw materials, partly in the chemical and food industries, transport engineering, and a number of assembly plants.

The United States considers fundamental improvements in public administration systems, the elimination of extreme forms of poverty and misery, progress in the social sphere, and the curtailment of interethnic and border conflicts to be conditions for the growth of FDI inflows to Africa. The United States will intensify its efforts to achieve the long-term goals of its investment strategy in the sector of proven and available reserves of energy resources and a number of minerals on the African continent.

O. S. Kulkova (Ph. D., IAfr RAS), considering various forms of UK participation in the development of the mineral resource complex in Nigeria, Tanzania and Senegal, noted that against the background of a general decline in FDI from developed countries to Africa, UK FDI increased by 9% in 2012. For it, the second (after South Africa) market on the continent is Nigeria, which has the largest oil reserves. Despite increasing competition from China, British companies are maintaining their investments in the country even in the face of extremely high corruption.

In Tanzania, where the rivalry between China and the United States in mineral extraction is even more pronounced, the United Kingdom remains the leader in investment in this sector ($4.7 billion in 2012). However, in the face of increasing corruption, a worsening situation with the protection of company property rights and non-compliance with agreements concluded in accordance with the Tanzanian mining code, 10 large British companies operating in Tanzania have asked their government for direct financial support from the Tanzanian budget in the amount of 151 million pounds a year to protect their interests. The Tanzania National Business Council Forum (December 2013) suggested removing red tape and revising the structure of the Tanzanian business model to overcome barriers to FDI growth.

Senegal was among the top ten British markets for commodity exports to Africa: in 2010, shipments to the country (by 509 million pounds) mainly included oil and petroleum products. While not a major donor to Senegal, the UK is keen to expand its investment opportunities in its economy.

Despite the existing opinion that large TNCs ' investments have a negative impact on the economic development of African countries, the latter are guided by a more positive scenario and seek to improve the investment climate to attract FDI.

NEW KNOWLEDGE, NEW TECHNOLOGIES

The most important area of economic modernization in Africa is the transfer and introduction of advanced technologies. Z. S. Novikova (Ph. D. in Economics, IAfr RAS) devoted her report to some aspects of the modernization of communications and mass media (on the example of Nigeria). Since the 1990s, there has been a gradual but rather active integration of African countries, including Nigeria, into the global information space. It is ahead of all other countries on the continent in terms of the number of mobile subscribers: in 2012 - 107.4 million (compared to 3.2 million dial-up subscribers) with a population of 170 million people. Nigeria is also the leader in Africa in terms of the number of Internet users: in 2012, there were 48.4 million of them (in 2000 - 100 thousand people).

This was the result of the recognition by the Government of Nigeria as one of the country's socio-economic development priorities for the period 2007-2020. (Nigeria Vision 2020 program) to promote ICTs that help modernize the economy and improve the efficiency of the economy. In particular, e-commerce is developing in the country; e-commerce is developing successfully within the country; mobile payments and transfers are being introduced; and multilateral projects in the field of digital technologies aimed at modernizing education and healthcare systems are being implemented.

The ICT sector is influencing the dynamics of Nigeria's economic growth: the industry's contribution to the country's GDP increased from 1.91% in 2006 to 8.53% in 2013 (projected to reach 15% in 2015). The impact of this sector on the expansion of employment opportunities for young people aged 20-35 years with secondary and higher education, including residents of remote rural areas, is noticeable.

The report of L. N. Kalinichenko (IAfr RAS) focused on the introduction of science and technology achievements in the industrial and energy sectors, which are still little used for the economic development of the continent. To do this, within the framework of the African Union

A strategy for the development of science, technology and innovation until 2024 is being developed in such areas as: biotechnology; drought management and water use; energy; manufacturing; mathematical sciences; laser and computer technologies.

The main role in choosing priority areas of innovative development and their financing is assigned to the state, since the initial development or acquisition of new technologies is unattractive for private enterprise capital due to high risks. Cooperation with India, China, and Brazil is expanding, mainly in the areas of renewable energy, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, and infrastructure.

It is promising to create a "green" industry and energy (resource-efficient, environmentally friendly, low-waste technologies with low carbon dioxide emissions, such as biotechnologies used in South Africa in the production of metals. In the energy sector, new technologies are being introduced for the transition to renewable energy production, and a program is being implemented to finance them (investment in this area increased on the continent from $750 million in 2004 to $3.6 billion in 2011).

Africa is gradually developing a network of institutions that promote the dissemination of knowledge and the introduction of new technologies: universities, research centers, financial institutions, enterprises, technology agencies, and government agencies. However, the level and scope of research is insignificant, and the opportunities of venture business are limited by the available financial resources. Almost all countries, with the exception of South Africa, have a low level of "technological readiness".

N. F. Matveeva (IAfr RAS) described the prospects for the development of transport infrastructure in East Africa, the current state of which does not meet the growing needs for it. Kenya is making the most active efforts to implement transport projects: in 2011-2012, large - scale works were carried out to clean up the harbor of the Port of Mombasa, and construction of a standard-gauge railway was started, the first stage of which (479 km) will connect the port of Mombasa and Nairobi by 2017.

In the East African sub-region, a second transport corridor is under construction, mainly in Kenya, which will connect the Indian Ocean port of Lamu with South Sudan and Ethiopia, and in the future - with the Cameroonian port of Douala on the Atlantic Ocean. It is one of the largest infrastructure systems under construction in Africa. The project also includes the construction of an oil pipeline along the corridor route in connection with the recent discovery of oil fields in the provinces of Turkana (Kenya) and Omo (Ethiopia), as well as additional infrastructure facilities in the field of water supply, telecommunications services, and power generation facilities (mainly thermal power plants). In the future, it is planned to import electricity from Ethiopia, where the largest dam in Africa with a reservoir is being built on the Omo River.

The creation of the LAPSSET infrastructure system will contribute to the growth of trade and economic integration of the states involved in the project, the unification of their transport systems, and increase the opportunities for socio-economic development of backward, depressed, and hard-to-reach areas with great economic potential along the Northern Transport Corridor.

NEW MODELS OF GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP

In his report on Africa's place in the global partnership for development, V. P. Morozov (Ph. D. in Economics, Professor, IAfr RAS) noted that the global financial and economic crisis and the subsequent decline in production, which limited the ability of developed countries to provide assistance to poor countries, caused the emergence of new conceptual approaches to the development of international economic relations.

First of all, it is the New International Development Architecture (2010) proposed by UNCTAD - a set of formal and informal institutions, as well as incentives for creating a new international economic environment in order to ensure sustainable development of poor countries. Among the proposed measures is the participation of the national private sector in investments in order to balance the interests of private and public capital in these countries.

A new model of global partnership is also proposed in the program for the next decade presented at the IV UN Conference on the Least Developed Countries (2011, Istanbul, Turkey). It has developed measures to reallocate resources from developed countries to poor countries in order to eliminate imbalances and inequalities in the latter. The main condition for the implementation of this program is the modernization of the national economy and the development of market relations.

In general, the idea of "rebalancing" the directions and forms of international development assistance to poor countries is increasingly being promoted: emphasis is placed on the priority of independent solution of their economic tasks using national resources. However, these documents do not outline specific steps and possible scales of development assistance to poor countries, especially in Africa, for the period after 2015, which reduces the likelihood of their widespread implementation. Therefore, modernization in Africa is more likely to be island-based (in terms of distribution) and cluster-based (in terms of structure). personality.

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