L. YA. PROKOPENKO

Candidate of Historical Sciences

Institute of Africa, Russian Academy of Sciences

Keywords: political pluralism, K. Kaunda, opposition parties, elections, Movement for Multiparty Democracy (DMD), Patriotic Front (PF), Michael Sata, Edgar Lungu, mass media

In 2011, the Zambian general election was won by the opposition Patriotic Front (PF) party led by Michael Sata. In the early presidential elections held on January 20, 2015 in connection with the death of M. Saty, the PF again won. The peaceful transfer of power to the opposition is a sign of relative political stability in Zambia.

The political development of Zambia in the first years after its independence on October 24, 1964, took place in the context of the formation of a multi-party system. In the 1960s, the main political rival of the United National Independence Party (UNIP), led by Kenneth Kaunda, remained the African National Congress (ANC) of Northern Rhodesia, despite the fact that many of its members, including representatives of the leadership, defected to UNIP. In the second half of the 1960s, inter-ethnic and inter-factional differences intensified in UNIP, and in August 1971 a new opposition group appeared - the United Progressive Party (UPP), led by S. Kapwepwe. The SCP's criticism of K. Kaunda's economic policy led to its banning and arrest of S. Kapwepwe. In August 1973, a new constitution was adopted, Article 4 of which provided for the existence of a one-party system. The return to political pluralism began after the adoption by the National Assembly (Parliament) of the law on the introduction of a multi-party system and its signing by President K. Kaunda on December 17, 1990. At the same time, the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (DMD) party was formed, led by the leader of the Zambian Congress of Trade Unions (CPW), Frederick Chiluba.

Since the beginning of the official registration of new political parties in January 1991 and until the general elections held on October 31-November 1, 9 more parties have appeared in the country: the Movement for a Democratic Process, the National Democratic Alliance (NADA), the Christian Alliance for the Kingdom of Africa (CHAKA), the National Party for Democracy,the Democratic Party, Theocratic Spiritual Party, People's Party, Multi-racial Party, People's Liberation Party. Many of them shared the DMD's political platform.

The main contest in the elections, which were held with the participation of international and local observers, was between UNIP and DMD and their candidates-67-year-old K. Kaunda and 48-year-old F. Chiluba. A convincing victory was won by the DMD, which received 75.8% of the vote, while 24.2% of the electorate voted for UNIP. In the National Assembly, DMD won 125 seats (83.4%), UNIP - 25 (16.6%) ¹.

Zambia's political parties (there were 9 parties in 1991, about 20 in 1993, and about 30 in 2015) have extensive electoral experience. Since the proclamation of political pluralism in 1991, democratic elections have already been held seven times-in the United States. 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2015.

THE OPPOSITION'S FIRST STEPS IN POWER

In the years since the return to political pluralism in 1991, opposition parties have made several attempts to unite, but their integration has been temporary. A number of new opposition leaders have emerged, including recent members of the ruling DMD who left the party as a result of its splits.

The real growth of the opposition's influence began after the creation of the Patriotic Front party led by Michael Sata in 2001. He participated in all presidential elections, gaining more and more votes each time (2001-3.35%, 2006-29.4%, 2008-38.1%). (By the way, in the 2008 elections, he received only 2% of the vote less than the victorious Rupia Banda.)

In their election campaigns, the PF and Sata focused on the poor urban strata, especially on young people who are dissatisfied with the uneven distribution of income and the growth of unemployment. After another defeat, M. Sata always contested the election results, becoming a kind of record holder in this regard in the South African region.

It was the PF led by M. Sata that was the main political rival of the ruling DMD in the 2011 elections. President Rupia Banda, who was elected head of State in early 2008 elections after the death of Levi Mwanawasa, did not have the political experience that Sata had, although he had years of diplomatic service, as foreign Minister and as a member of Parliament.

The beginning of Banda's presidency coincided with the global financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008, which was a serious test for his government. After coming to power, Banda called on the opposition to engage in a serious dialogue, saying that " Zambians must take steps towards reconciliation and unity."². The opposition sharply criticized the government: the criticism concerned anti-crisis measures in the economy, the acquittal of ex-President F. Putin in the summer of 2009. Chilube, who defied the verdict of a London court that found him guilty in 2007 of embezzling $46 million in public funds in a civil suit filed by a Zambian anti-corruption ^group3. The President's frequent foreign trips and attempts to win the support of traditional rulers, who, by the way, in Zambia are considered unbiased leaders who attach little importance to the political sympathies of their fellow tribesmen, were also condemned.

It wasn't just DMD's old political opponent M. who criticized the gang. Sata: The latter was also joined by young opposition leaders Edith Nawakvi (Forum for Democracy and Development, FDR) and Hakainde Hichilema (United Party for National Development, UNN). From the very beginning of Banda's tenure in power, Nawakvi sharply criticized his domestic policies, saying that he was leading the country to an economic catastrophe.⁴ In turn, Hichilema stated in June 2009 that the government of R. Banda was covering up corrupt officials.⁵

As in the elections of 2006 and 2008, in 2011 M. Sata and his PF relied on the poor strata of the city's citizens, who then made up 39.2% of the country's population. ⁶ The PF promised to significantly increase social spending in the event of coming to power, to create 100 thousand social workers. create new jobs, implement industrialization strategies, and implement labor law and social security reforms.

Preparations for the elections took place in a difficult political environment. Before the start of the election campaigns, political parties, primarily the PF and OPNR, resumed attacks on each other, although at that time they were within the framework of the opposition pact created to participate in the elections. During the election campaign, members and supporters of the LPRP participated in riots in Mufumbwe district in April 2010, which the police had to use force to suppress,resulting in 6 injuries.

10 candidates ran for the post of President: R. Banda, M. Sata, H. Hichilema, T. Kaunda and others. In the elections held on ^September 20, M. Sata won-42.2% of the electors7, R. Banda received 35.6%, H. Hichilema-18.3%. Each of the other 7 candidates had less than 1% of the ⁸ votes. The voter turnout was 53.65%⁹. The parliamentary elections were won by the PF party, which won 60 seats in ¹⁰.

The victory of the opposition Patriotic Front led by M. Sata was an undoubted success of the democratic electoral process. One of the reasons for the opposition's success is the gap between urban and rural voters. The case of Zambia has shown that urbanization and economic growth that do not create jobs and significantly reduce poverty can provide fertile ground for opposition policies and subsequent changes in government.

The PF headed by M. Satoy was in power for only three years. During this relatively short period of time, there have been some positive developments both in the economy and in foreign policy. Already in the first year, the government, fulfilling the PF's pre-election promises, raised the minimum wage, raised the salaries of civil servants by 4-15%, worked to reform labor legislation, nationalize the previously privatized railway and the Zam-tel telecommunications company.

In his inaugural address on September 28, 2011 Sata described corruption as a cancer and promised Zambians and foreign investors that his Government would relentlessly fight corruption and that the fight would not be limited to rhetoric. In April 2012, the Parliament unanimously adopted the anti-corruption bill in the second reading. The Government has also started drafting a new constitution.

The real exchange rate was adopted-

a new economic strategy based on attracting foreign investment, including with the participation of the Zambian diaspora. In 2013, FDI into the Zambian economy totaled $3.56 billion. (in 2011, under the DMD, they were at the level of $1.8 billion). Chinese investment in the Zambian economy totaled $2.6 billion. and provided about 50 thousand jobs ¹¹.

Against the background of global trends in economic development, there was a constant drop in copper prices. This has had a negative impact on the country's economy. According to the World Bank (WB), the GDP growth rate has decreased: in 2013 it reached 6% (in 2010-7.6%). By 2014, the Economic Freedom Index, which ranked Zambia 100th out of 183 countries in 2010, had also declined.¹² Widespread corruption and the low efficiency of the judicial system also reduce the attractiveness of Zambia for investors.

In its foreign policy, Zambia adheres to the principles of non-alignment, maintaining good-neighborly relations with Southern African States, promoting regional political and economic integration, and ensuring regional security within the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

Zambia supports the peaceful resolution of conflicts in Africa, is represented in the UN and African Union (AU) peacekeeping forces. M. Sata continued the course of so-called "economic diplomacy" conducted by his predecessor R. Banda. When foreign policy was revised, "economic diplomacy" remained its main component, but now it is reduced not to attracting donor assistance, but to finding large foreign investors.¹³

NEW VICTORY OF THE PF

On October 28, 2014, Michael Sata died in London, where he was undergoing medical treatment. According to the Constitution of Zambia, in the event of the death of a head of State, his duties are temporarily assigned to the Vice-President, and early presidential elections must be held within 3 months after this date.¹⁴ Vice President Guy Scott became acting head of state for the period until early elections.

On 4 November 2014, the Electoral Commission of Zambia announced the start of preparations for the presidential election. On November 19, 2014, G. Scott announced the date of their holding - January 20, 2015. Mr. Scott himself was not eligible to stand as a candidate, as he, although a Zambian by birth, is the son of immigrants from Great Britain.

The nomination of a candidate from the ruling PF took place in the context of an acute internal party conflict. After the death of party leader M. Sata, there was a clash of interests between Vice President G. Scott and Minister of Defense and Justice Edgar Lungu, who served as General Secretary in the PF. The fact is that on the eve of the 50th anniversary celebrations of the independence of Zambia, he, as the general secretary of the party, was appointed acting chairman of the party until M. Sata returned from a trip abroad related to his medical treatment. ¹⁵ On November 3, 2014, Acting Chairman of the PF G. Scott dismissed Lunga from his duties as General Secretary without explanation. However, under pressure from other party leaders, he was forced to reverse his decision the very next day.

The decision to run for election from the PF was also announced by close relatives of the late president-widow Christine Kaseba-Sata, adopted son Muleng Sata (mayor of the capital - Lusaka) and nephew Miles Sampa (Deputy Minister of Trade). In their interviews, these young politicians emphasized that the PF needs to be renewed, and Zambia "needs to be led by a young and energetic leader."¹⁶ (This was a direct reference to the fact that the country's two previous presidents, R. Banda and M. Sata, headed it at a fairly advanced age - 71 and 74 years.)

The PF party conference, held on November 30, 2014 in Kabwe, nominated E. Lunga as a candidate, while the other candidates were absent from this party event. On December 1, Mr. Scott called another conference at Mulungushi University, where M. Sampa was elected as a presidential candidate. On 18 December, 14 out of 17 government ministers, led by Foreign Minister Harry Kalaba, issued a call for Mr Scott to resign because he was "acting against the interests of the party"¹⁷. Scott stated that this is "blackmail and use of a government resource for partisan purposes" ¹⁸.

After the Zambian High Court recognized Lungu's candidacy, the two party factions came to an agreement, and he was nominated as the candidate of the ruling PF19. Lungu's candidacy was also supported by former President R. Banda ²⁰.

11 parties officially announced their participation in the presidential election. But the real fight was between 58-year-old Edgar Lungu (PF), 52-year-old Hakainde Hichilema (OPNR) and 54-year-old Nevers Mumba (DMD).

E. Lungu did not have his own election program, and he went to the polls with the one that was developed by M. Sata for the 2016 elections. He stated this without a shadow of embarrassment in an interview with Radio Phoenix²¹. Speaking at rallies, Lungu is often under pressure.-

he emphasized that he was a student of M. Sata and intended to continue his work.

According to official data of the Central Election Commission published on January 24, 2015, E. Lungu won the presidential election with 48.33% of the vote.²² The second was the leader of the OPNR X. Hichilema (46.67%). The remaining 9 candidates scored less than 1%. The PF explained the low level of voter turnout (32.36%) by the fact that during the short pre-election campaign, many voters who changed their place of residence were unable to exchange their voter card for technical reasons and did not participate in voting.

International observers noted the good preparation and conduct of the elections. For example, the SADC mission statement stated that they were peaceful, transparent, free and fair. ²³

E. Lungu was inaugurated on January 25, 2015. It is noteworthy that the current ex-presidents of the country - Kenneth Kaunda and Rupia Banda-took part in it.

The victory of the Patriotic Front led by M. Sata in the 2011 general election was an undoubted success of the democratic electoral process in Zambia, and the elections in January 2015 consolidated this success. However, given the low turnout and small margin in the number of votes received by the PF, it can be argued that only successful implementation of pre-election promises can allow the PF to retain power after the next elections scheduled for 2016.

MASS MEDIA AND THE INTERNET AS A TRIBUNE OF THE OPPOSITION

The difficulty in using the media as a platform for the opposition lies not only in the existence of legal regulation of the press during election campaigns, but also in the state-controlled majority of print media (for example, the Zambia Government Gazette, Zambia Daily Mail), radio and television, as well as in the limited segment of independent media, the most influential of which is the newspaper The Post and private radio stations QFM, Breeze FM and Radio Phoenix.

Under L. Mwanawasa (2001-2008), Zambia was ranked 138th (out of 195) in the 2008 Freedom of the Press ranking published by Freedom House.²⁴ Nevertheless, during the 2011 election campaign, opposition leader M. Sata (PF) managed to make the most of the pages of The Post newspaper to sharply criticize the then President R. Banda. (By the way, Satu was often called the "king cobra"for his oratory skills and sharp tongue.)

R. Banda's Assistant for Media Affairs and Public Relations, J.Dixon, in his political memoir "The Vicissitudes of the Presidency through the Eyes of a Zambian political strategist"²⁵, later claimed that Banda lost the 2011 election, including because of a powerful media campaign directed against him.

For the first time after M. Sata came to power in 2011, Zambia was one of the countries with "partially free media" (132nd out of 197) ^.26 Later, the heads of the main newspapers, The Times of Zambia and the Zambia Daily Mail, were replaced, and the opposition regarded this as a restriction on freedom of speech. In 2014, Zambia was again classified as a country with "non-free media" ²⁷.

During the 2015 election campaign, opposition candidates: Hichilema (OPNR), N. Mumba (DMD), T. Kaunda (UNIP), G. Miyanda (Heritage Party) actively participated in TV debates. On the eve of the elections, some opposition politicians on the pages of independent media pointed out the growing influence of inter-ethnic contradictions on the electoral process, and newspapers openly published discussion materials on this topic. Over the past decade, the ruling and opposition parties in Zambia have recognized the role of influencing the electorate with electronic media, and the electoral process in 2011 and 2015 confirmed this. In terms of the total number of Internet users, Zambia ranks first in the South African region -2.7 million in 2014 (18% of the population)²⁸. The number of individual Internet users has increased dramatically: in 2000 - 0.19%, and in 2012-13.5%²⁹. Therefore, the elections during this period, in terms of awareness and communication capabilities of voters, especially advanced youth, were held in incomparably better conditions than before.

During the 2015 election campaign, almost all opposition parties had their own Facebook pages, where information about rallies, meetings with voters, and media interviews was updated almost daily, supplemented with photos and videos. In addition to the already mentioned newspaper The Post, the opposition also used the independent news website ZambiaReports and the opposition website Zambian-Watchdog.

The Internet has expanded the opportunities for voters to get information about political leaders and parties. Opposition leaders are working more and more professionally during election campaigns, and their effectiveness is clearly demonstrated by the placement of an OPNR commercial on YouTube on the eve of the January 2015 elections. -

to a significant extent thanks to which its leader X Hichilema received 46.67% of the vote. Interestingly, Elias Chipimo, the chairman of the country's first Internet party, which was founded in 2010, was running in this election.

Thus, the emergence of electronic media (more accessible, cheaper, faster and interactive than their print counterparts) has significantly accelerated the process of political communication, and they are actively used by the opposition in the struggle for power.

Over the past 15 years, women have been nominated as candidates for the presidential elections by opposition parties three times. In 2001, one of the leaders of the Zambia Agenda party, Inonge Mbikushita-Levanika, ³⁰ was the only woman among the 11 presidential candidates and received 0.6% of the vote. In 2011, Edith Nawakvi, the leader of the Forum for Democracy and Development (FDR) party, won 0.25% of the vote (the same number of votes were received by 6 other non-main male candidates). She also participated in the elections held on January 20, 2015. This time, out of 8 candidates who received less than 1% of the vote, E. Navakvi had the best result - 0.92%³¹. Finance Minister A. Chikwanda noted that she had conducted "a remarkable election campaign, showing knowledge of Zambian issues and well articulating and articulating the problems of women and unemployed youth" ^.32

* * *

Zambia, which entered the process of political liberalization in the early 1990s, has for almost a quarter of a century demonstrated the possibility of political development along the path of democratization without the violent change of power and bloody ethnic and religious conflicts that took place in other countries of sub-Saharan Africa.

The uneven distribution of income and the growing number of poor people among the urban population, especially young people, proved to be fertile ground for the victory of the opposition. In 2011, the opposition Patriotic Front party led by M. Sata managed to channel the political discontent of the poor in the right direction and won the general elections. This victory demonstrated the effectiveness of political pluralism and the democratic nature of the electoral process in the country. The elections ended with a peaceful transfer of power by the DMD party, which has become a tradition in Zambia over the years of the return to multiparty rule.

50 years after independence, with peaceful political development, more than 60% of Zambia's population is below the poverty line33, and it is still among the African countries receiving financial assistance from the IMF under the HIPC (Heavily Indebted Poor Countries) program, which is provided to the poorest countries with high external debt. President E. Lungu will remain in office until the 2016 general election, and the PF Government will have to face the challenges of fighting not only poverty, but also corruption, which is one of its causes. The price of failure to fulfill election promises for the Patriotic Front may be the loss of power and the victory of another party in the upcoming elections.

¹ http://www.elections.org.zm/results/1991

² Lusaka Times. Lusaka, 12 March 2009.

³ http://report2007.amnesty.org/rus/Regions/Africa/Zambia

⁴ Lusaka Times... 23 July 2009.

⁵ Zambian Radio QFM. 19.02.2010 - www.qfmzambia.com

⁶ http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS

⁷ Electoral Commission of Zambia 28^th, September 2011. Public Notice 2011 Presidential Election Results. Lusaka, p. 88 -http://www.elections.org.zm/media/28092011_public_notice_2011_presidential_election_res ults.pdf

⁸ Ibidem.

⁹ Ibid.

¹⁰ http://www.elections.org.zm/media/summary-allocationofnationalassemblyseats.pdf

¹¹ http://russian.china.org.cn/international/txt/20l4 - 06/19/con-tent__32716602.htm

¹² http://www.heritage.org/index/country/Zambia

¹³ See: Prokopenko L. Ya. Foreign Policy of Zambia: course on pragmatism / / Asia and Africa today. 2014. N 11, с. 31 - 36. (Prokopenko L.Ya. 2014. Vneshnyaya politika Zambii: kurs na pragmatism // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. N 11) (in Russian)

¹⁴ The Constitution of Zambia (Amendment) Act, 1996. Lusaka: Government Printer, 1996. Part IV. Article 38 (1).

¹⁵ Lusaka Times. Lusaka, 20 October 2014.

¹⁶ Lusaka Times... 2 November 2014.

¹⁷ Pulse of the planet. ITAR-TASS. 18.12.2014.

¹⁸ Ibid.

¹⁹ http://www.voanews.com/content/zarnbia-s-acting-president-confident-in-ruling-party-elector al-victory/2584581.html

²⁰ http://postzambia.com/news.php%3Fid%3D5087

²¹ http://lusakavoice.com/2014/12/05

²² Electoral Commission of Zambia 24^th January 2015. Public-Notice 2015 Presidential Election Results. Lusaka, p. 95 -http://www.elec-tions.org.zm/media/2015_presidential_election_results_public_notice_copy 1.pdf

²³ http://www.sadc.int/news-events/news/zambian-elections-declared-peaceful-transparent-credi ble-fre/&prev=

²⁴ Freedom of the Press 2014. Freedom House. 2014, p. 16.

^{Dickson J.} 25 Inside the Presidency: The Trials and Tribulations of a Zambian Spin Doctor. Nsemia Inc., Ontario, Canada, 2014.

²⁶ Freedom of the Press 2012. Freedom House. 2012, p. 16.

²⁷ Freedom of the Press 2014... 2014, p. 1.

²⁸ http://www.internetworldstats.com/africa.htm

²⁹ http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/statistics/2013/Individuals_Internet_2000 - 2012.xls

³⁰ Daughter of Mbikushita Levaiiki, one of the founders and leader of the country's first indigenous political party, the African National Congress (ANC) of Northern Rhodesia.

³¹ http://www.elections.org.zm/media/national_summary_for_150 constituencies.pdf

³² Lusaka Times. Lusaka, 28 January 2015.

³³ http://data.worldbank.org/country/zambia

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