The article is devoted to the main directions and problems of scientific and technological progress of the South African economy in the light of the government's ten-year (2008-2018) plan for the transition from a "Resource Economy to a knowledge economy", or, in other words, from an industrial economy largely based on the exploitation of natural resources to an innovative economy based on development science and high technologies. In South Africa, this transformation has been identified as a major national priority. The article discusses the main parameters of the development of the scientific and educational potential of South Africa, the prospects for innovative transformations in such" breakthrough " areas as biotechnology and nuclear energy, as well as some problems associated with creating and maintaining a favorable socio-economic and political environment for the considered transformations.

The innovativeness of the economy that has stepped into this new quality is manifested, first of all, in the increased ability to transform new knowledge as a product of scientific and educational activities into new goods, technological processes and services (by the way, the high share of the service sector in the GDP of South Africa, 65%, is typical for developed countries). Accordingly, the main drivers of economic growth are science and human resources, intellectual and creative potential, "materialized" in the most knowledge-intensive industries and technologies based on innovations.

Without particularly theorizing, we note that the formation of a "new economy" or "knowledge economy" in the most developed countries, the main factor in the development of which is "accumulated human capital", "which has taken a leading place in the national wealth (up to 80% in developed countries) and in the total productive capital" [Korchagin, 2005, p. 2], fully corresponds to the prediction of Karl Marx about the transformation of science into a direct productive force, which was realized, however, not under communism, and did not come, but in the conditions of the world scientific and technological revolution, the next phase of which we are witnessing today.

Innovation priorities, or "big challenges", in South Africa include information, bio-and nanotechnologies (microtechnologies aimed at controlling atomic and molecular mechanisms in order to obtain a given structure of materials and substances), medicine and pharmaceuticals, space research, ensuring the country's energy security, and a set of social tasks solved on the basis of human development (there is also such a direction, so far only outlined in general terms, as "countering global and regional climate change"). Interdisciplinary convergence of research (bioinformatics, pharmacogenetics, etc.) is increasing. It is clear that we are talking about a shift in emphasis towards higher and more knowledge-intensive technologies, and not about moving away from scientific and technological development.-

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It is also important to ensure the technological support of such "pillars" of the real economy of South Africa as mining and processing of minerals, which nature has so generously endowed the country with. As the National Research and Development Strategy adopted in 2002 notes, "science and new technologies are critical to the future of South Africa, and the Government is aware of its key role in creating an enabling environment for innovation and research, as well as in generating the human capital needed for the future knowledge economy" [South Africa's National... , 2002, p. 5].

The global scientific and technical (scientific and technological) potential, or scientific and technical resources of the world economy, is concentrated mainly in a small group of large and developed countries (the United States, the leading countries of Western Europe, Japan, Russia; China is catching up with them). It is they who carry out all or almost the entire range of research and development (R & D) activities. Small developed countries and the so-called key developing or medium-developed ones (Mexico, India, Brazil, South Africa, whose economy occupies a borderline position between developed and developing countries1, etc.) are forced to focus on individual, most important and at the same time "lifting" areas of scientific and technological progress for each of them.

These countries are particularly interested in international scientific and technical cooperation. In particular, South Africa actively cooperates with Brazil and India (leaders of the Southern Hemisphere) along the South-South line. According to the RAND Corporation's research forecast, South Africa, along with Brazil and Mexico, is among the "scientifically developing" countries capable of mastering most (9 out of 16) of the most promising technological systems. (Egypt, next to South Africa in terms of developing its scientific potential, is already one of the "science laggards".) India, as well as Russia and China are included by American experts in the group of "scientifically qualified" (able to master 12 of the 16 specified systems). [см.: The Global Technology Revolution..., 2006].

South Africa is also a driving force for inter-African scientific and technical cooperation under the NEPAD (New Partnership for Africa's Development) program, primarily in the areas of training scientific and engineering personnel, combating poverty and infections (HIV, etc.), energy and aerospace research. Examples include the establishment of the African Laser Center in Cape Town a few years ago and the Inter-African Institute for Mathematical Research, which, among other things, organize annual summer schools designed primarily for young scientists from neighboring countries, and have begun to establish similar research centers in other countries of the continent.

The EU countries for South Africa are mainly donors and sellers of new technologies and use this country with its rich resource base and developed infrastructure as a testing ground for various types of research and testing. So, in South Africa (Cape Town) in recent years, they have opened their own research branches (the only ones in Africa) European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership and the International Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotech-

1 South Africa, according to data from the beginning of the current decade, is classified as a country with an average level of human development according to an aggregated index of this level, which includes the index of per capita GDP at purchasing power parity ($13.3 thousand in 2006), indices of education and average life expectancy (Chernetsky, 2007). The latter in South Africa declined sharply in the post-apartheid period (from 64 to 43 years) in the context of the AIDS pandemic.

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International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, headquartered in Italy. South Africa, the country with the most developed scientific and information infrastructure on the continent, hosts numerous international scientific and practical conferences (with the participation of high-ranking politicians). For example, in 2002, a summit was held in Johannesburg under the auspices of the United Nations (with the presentation of national programs for such development) on the sustainable development of the world civilization, which is threatened by global environmental pollution, depletion of non-renewable resources and global warming.

In the twenty-first century, the problems of developing scientific and technological potentials and mobilizing scientific resources have become even more important in the context of the transition to an innovative economy, or an economy based on knowledge (the main resource of the "new", innovative economy) and high-tech technologies. The development of scientific potential is becoming a crucial factor in economic growth.

The success of South African science, which is known for its achievements in such diverse areas as heart transplants, the production of liquid fuel from coal, and even the creation of its own atomic bombs (dismantled before the self-destruction of the apartheid regime in 1994), is provided by significant economic potential and, as already noted, a well-developed scientific and information infrastructure. Four South African scientists won the Nobel Prize and dozens won other prestigious international awards (although many later emigrated). In general, in terms of economic, scientific and technological development indicators, South Africa (which completed industrialization in the 60-70s of the XX century) has no equal in Africa and is close to new industrial countries, and sometimes surpasses them in quality parameters. Here, for example, are a few figures to characterize the information infrastructure of South Africa: in the middle of this decade, there were 32 million mobile phones per 45 million people (i.e., almost the entire adult population had them), 5.3 million personal computers and about 4 million Internet users [www.link.wits.ac.za]. In Africa, South Africa is becoming the largest exporter of information technology (for example, the leading South African mobile phone company MTN has won up to half of the vast Nigerian mobile phone market).

At the same time, the existing "bottlenecks" caused by the legacy of internal colonialism - the long - term coexistence of a highly developed metropolis and a backward colony in one country-hinder the implementation of far-reaching plans for innovative development. As noted by the Russian Africanist L. A. Demkina, " the lack of preparation of the overwhelming majority of the African part of South African society for full-fledged participation and entry into modern society (economy, politics, social sphere), due to the entire previous colonial-racist order, leads... a phenomenon that could be described as a" slide " into the state of a developing country. This is reflected in the growth of the so-called informal economy, the growth of unemployment and the accompanying criminalization of public life "[Demkina, 2006, p. 140].

However, recently there have been reasons to believe that this "sliding" trend has been reversed in the current decade. In the context of sustained economic growth, unemployment and crime rates declined slightly. The state, sparing no expense, completes the "educational program" (in the middle of this decade, the adult literacy rate exceeded 86%) and forms an educated and qualified African elite. Nevertheless, the negative phenomena noted are long-term and have extensive enclaves of poverty, unemployment and crimi-

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Table 1

Knowledge Economy Development Index*

A country

Ranked among 27 countries

Composite Index

Subindexes

Innovativeness

Education

Information infrastructure

USA

1

8.81

9.91

8.28

9.09

Japan

5

8.41

9.78

8.09

8.35

Israel

6

7.44

7.44

6.78

8.21

Russia

10

6.26

8.88

7.88

4.91

Mexico

12

5.77

7.37

4.43

5.51

Brazil

13

5.82

8.08

5.75

5.50

SOUTH AFRICA

14

5.21

6.54

4.47

5.26

China**

18

4.95

9.00

3.74

4.50

India**

23

3.97

8.59

2.33

2.06

Kenya

24

2.62

5.31

2.07

1.83

Cameroon

27

1.41

1.78

3.93

1.38

* Calculated by the World Bank on a ten-point scale based on approximately two hundred indicators that characterize the transition to a "knowledge economy".

** The Chinese and Indian indices are somewhat understated due to the use of per capita indicators. Here it is important to pay attention to the innovation indices of these countries, which reflect the R & D potential.

Source: [The Global Technology Revolution..., 2006, p. 236-237].

Nalas continue to be destabilizing factors in South African society.

The ten-year plan for the development of science and its material and personnel base for 2008-2018 "Innovation Towards a Knowledge-based Economy", prepared by the Department (Ministry) of Science and Technology and approved by the Government, is designed to put the country's economy on the path of innovative development. This includes increasing the contribution of scientific and technological progress to economic growth from 10 to 30% and increasing the share of knowledge-intensive and advanced technology-based industries in the country's exports from 30 to 55% [Innovation..., 2006]. In particular, national innovation and space agencies are being created to facilitate the implementation of the plan. They will complement the existing structures of state support for science and scientific councils. One of them, the largest scientific center on the continent, is the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (Council for Scientific and Industrial Research), the other seven are engaged in agricultural, medical, humanitarian and other research.

The research, production and financial components of this plan to accelerate the country's innovative development are impressive. It is expected that South Africa, relying on its economic potential and rich mineral and biological resources, will be able to make a breakthrough in the development of knowledge-intensive sectors of the economy, including such components as information technology (to serve R & D in this area, taking into account the repeatedly increased complexity of calculations, modeling, and the like, a computer center of higher productivity was recently opened) bio-and nanotechnologies, pharmaceuticals, nuclear, "clean" coal and hydrogen energy, as well as space research. The above-mentioned ten-year plan is aimed at stimulating R & D and innovation in the most promising areas, creating the most favorable environment for them, and directing the commercialization of knowledge in the "right" social direction. Current status-

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The highest ranking of South Africa (between Brazil and China) in the knowledge Economy index (tab. 1) and its 39th place in 2005 among 162 countries in the international index of technological progress indicate good prospects for further innovation.

The table below shows a huge gap between the leaders in shaping the innovative image of the future and the outsiders (a combined indicator of about nine in the United States and Japan versus a little over one in Cameroon), while quite good indicators are higher than the average in Russia (mainly due to "old reserves"), Brazil and South Africa.

Among the most important parameters that characterize the country's scientific resources, the knowledge intensity of the economy, are investment in science and education, financing of innovative processes, in particular, the share of R & D expenditures in GDP. Although there is no close correlation between the level of development of scientific potential and the country's economy as a whole and the share of R & D expenditures in GDP, this correlation is usually much higher in developed countries than in developing ones.

R & D spending in South Africa is expected to exceed 1% of GDP in the coming years (0.92% in 2005/06, or RAND 14 billion, or over RAND 2 billion). This will allow us to come close to the level achieved under apartheid (1.1% of GDP in 1991), when science was considered as one of the strategic factors of the regime's survival [National Survey of Research..., 2007, p. 7]. According to this indicator of" science intensity", South Africa's GDP is close to modern Russia (1.28% of GDP), where the state of affairs in science is still far from prosperous (for comparison, the USSR allocated 3.5% of GDP to science in 1990). By 2018, these expenditures in South Africa are expected to reach 2% of GDP, i.e., to the level of highly developed countries (on average, it is 2.3% in the OECD: from 0.62% in Greece to 2.68% in the USA and 3.98% in Sweden) [Innovation Towards..., 2006, p. 9]. In the area of human/human resources, South Africa spends significantly more on education (see below).

Here are some key indicators of R & D development in South Africa in the current decade:

2001/02

2005/06

R & D development costs (billion rand)

7.5

14.1

same in % of GDP

0.76

0.92

Total number of people employed in R & D (including graduate students)

26913

39264

the same applies to full-time employment

21195

28798

including researchers

14182

17303

Percentage of female researchers

36.0

39.2

Source: [South African National Survey of Research..., 2003/04-2005/06].

Overall, R & D spending has grown at a faster pace in the current decade (by 12-13% per year in real terms). The number of scientists grew, but much more slowly, and the proportion of women among them increased. The proportion of black researchers whose promotion is fully supported is increasing (their share increased from 5% in 1993 to 28% in 2001) [Kahn, 2008, p. 11]. However, representatives of the white population still prevail in science quantitatively and even more qualitatively due to the scientific and general culture that cannot be brought up in one generation (the author could not find exact data in recent years, but, according to rough estimates, they account for about two-thirds of researchers and nine-tenths of scientific publications).

The number of scientific publications and patent activity give a certain idea of the effectiveness of R & D in South Africa. About 7,000 scientific papers are published in the country.

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articles per year (in the USA - 200 thousand, in China-20 thousand, and in Russia-16 thousand in 2001), which in 2006 amounted to 0.5% of their total number, which corresponds to the 28th place in the world. This is a good indicator (and by 2018 it is planned to increase this share fivefold) for a country with a relatively small population (of which 79% are African, 9.6% are white, 8.9% are colored, and 2.5% are Indian) and a small contingent of scientists. The number of national patent applications (for which patents were granted) was 4.7 thousand in 2002 (in our country-24.1 thousand, in Germany-80.6 thousand, in the USA-198.3 thousand), by 2018 this value is planned to increase to 24 thousand, i.e. to reach the modern level of Russia [Innovation Towards..., 2006, p. 9, 29, 31].

However, international recognition of South African patents is growing slowly. For comparison, in two decades, by 2004, the number of Indian patents registered per year by the US Patent Office increased from 10 to 341 (China received 424 in 2003, Russia - 203 US patents, Mexico and Argentina - 92 and 70, respectively), and South African patents - from 96 only to 131 (but in accordance with the US Patent Code). according to the South African ten-year plan for innovative development, this figure may rise to 250 by 2018). However, these were the only patents from Africa [www.southafrica.info - 18.11.2005; Human resources..., 2008, p. 146, 147]. Thus, in comparison with countries that are close to South Africa in terms of development, territory, and per capita income (Mexico, Argentina), and even Russia, South African indicators of internationally recognized labor productivity of a very small group of scientists and engineers-inventors do not look bad at all.

In total, in the middle of the current decade, R & D in South Africa employed, as shown above, about 40 thousand people of scientific, scientific support and engineering personnel, or 29 thousand in terms of full-time employment. Of these, 17 thousand (14 thousand without graduate students) are actually researchers, which means that there were two researchers per thousand employed. This is slightly more than in China, but much less than in highly developed countries and Russia.

1,200 doctoral theses were defended per year (2005), of which less than half (561) were defended in the most valuable scientific, engineering and technological category SET (science, engineering, technology), which confirms the necessary qualifications for working in the research field (you can also add 2.9 thousand masters in the same category). By 2018, these indicators are planned to be increased 5-fold (6 thousand dissertations per year, half in the SET category), for which, in particular, 450 new research departments will be created in universities and university research institutes (i.e., there will be 500 of them against 60 in 2006) [Innovation Towards..., 2006, p .29, 31].

The system of higher education and training of highly qualified personnel is a key link in the formation of scientific and technical potential in its human form, which includes not only the educational and qualification level, but also the mentality, culture and traditions (A.V. Lunacharsky is credited with saying: "a real intellectual has three diplomas - his own, his father's and his grandfather's"). In general, the South African state spends a lot on education - about 20% of budget expenditures, or 5.7% of GDP, in the middle of this decade (in Brazil-4.0%, in Russia - 3.1%), and spending is growing by 8-9% per year, outstripping GDP growth. Another thing is that most of the funds go to eliminate hotbeds of illiteracy (about 13% of the population is illiterate, almost exclusively Africans, and several million more people are functionally illiterate), and the widespread introduction of compulsory universal secondary education.

Intellectual, cultural, social, scientific and technological progress traditionally relied on universities with their atmosphere and traditions of free intellectual search (there were 21 of them, including the top five) and technical institutes or technical schools complementing them (15), where the research component was essential-

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It is significantly weaker (comparable to technical schools in our country). The oldest (founded in 1829) and still one of the leading ones is the University of Cape Town, where the first heart transplants in the world were performed in 1967 - 1968 at the Khroote Shyur clinic. A few years ago, a reform was carried out that increased the potential of university science. Both of these types of universities were combined into large blocks, instead of 36, they became 23, of which 11, as before, are "universal" universities with the most versatile training in the best European traditions (among them, traditionally the best are Pretoria, Stellenbosch, Witwatersrand, Johannesburg-based on the former Rand Afrikaans, and Cape Town, to which you can now add the University of Natal-Kwazulu) and with a modern research base. These universities are already strong, and the merger process that took place in 2004-2005 did not affect them much. Each of these universities has a staff of more than 100 "high-class" scientists certified by the National Research Foundation and from 500 to 1 thousand students. scientific publications with a high international rating, and together they have concentrated from 50 to 60% of the potential of university science - in terms of the number of researchers, costs, number of scientific publications, etc. [www.hsrcpress.ac.za].

The main focus of the "unifiers", supported by appropriate grants, was given to rather weak universities that were previously intended for Africans (including in the former bantustans - now disbanded state entities on the territories of former African reservations). They were reinforced by small neighboring "white" universities and added technical schools that are being pulled up to university standards. The merger with technical schools gave rise to 6 technical universities and 6 mixed-type universities, which also attach great importance to the development of science (in 2007, the state allocated 7 billion rand, or more than $ 1 billion, for the modernization of universities) [Mail & Guardian, 15.05.2007].

After overcoming a certain organizational confusion, such an association is likely to bring its scientific and pedagogical fruits.

By 2018, it is planned to increase the output of personnel for science and high-tech sectors of the economy fivefold, expanding the training of mainly black students, who will be encouraged and are already being stimulated by special grants (in 1993, only 11% of engineering graduates were black, in 2004-already 40%) [Business Day, 28.05.2007].

During the first 12 years of inter - racial democracy (1993-2005), the rapidly growing student body underwent significant racial and ethnic shifts. The total number of students in South Africa doubled to 735,000, while the proportion of whites decreased from 47 to 25%, and Africans increased from 40 to 61% (the proportion of Indians and people of color changed little - from 13 to 14%). However, more Africans (more than half) than representatives of other racial and ethnic groups (a quarter of whites) are eliminated in the course of study (although 110 thousand people do not study at all). African students received a special state grant for "poor students" in 2005). Among 120,000 university graduates in 2005, there were 66.6 thousand Africans and 38.2 thousand, or a third, whites (in doctoral studies, a third are already Africans). At the same time, only Indians were really close to Whites in terms of education. In the middle of the current decade, 61% of white school leavers went to university, 51% of Indians, 13% of people of color, and only 12% of Africans. Foreigners - mostly from other African countries, but also from Europe-account for 7% of South African students. Among 15 thousand university teachers, whites still predominate (63% in 2005).) [Mail & Guardian, 15.05.2007].

The ongoing Africanization of personnel seems to be objectively inevitable in the current conditions of the country's development and generally a positive phenomenon. However, it is impossible not to note a certain decrease in educational and professional standards, at which-

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the fact that new graduates of higher education institutions and holders of master's and doctoral degrees mostly only make up for losses from emigration. In 1994-2001, 17,000 or about half of the R & D-related scientific and engineering workers left the country. In total, more than a million South Africans, mostly white, have emigrated since 1994; they have moved, with rare exceptions, to England, the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand [Problems of development of South Africa..., 2007, p.18, 19].

Unable to stop this process in a real democracy, the Government sometimes resorts to emergency measures. So, instead of quickly emigrating doctors who did not want to extend their practice to the "black" suburbs affected by AIDS and teeming with criminal elements, a large group of qualified Cuban doctors was successfully hired, who, however, did not have enough knowledge of the English language.

The development and adoption of new technologies is increasingly being carried out by private businesses, which are strong and developed, both locally and represented by branches of leading TNCs (the latter accounted for 22% of South African business spending on R & D in 2006). [www.hsrcpress.ac.za]. It is encouraged by generous tax breaks. In total, 52% of companies operating in South Africa carried out their R & D in 2004 (a high figure even by European standards) against 44% in 2000 (while the top 20 companies accounted for 2/3 of R & D expenditures, small and medium-sized ones accounted for 25%, which also corresponds to the indicators of EU countries) [South African Innovation Survey, 2007, p. 20].

In 2005/06, the private sector financed 44% of R & D expenditures and spent 58% of their total amount, the state - 38% and 21%, respectively (until the end of the 1970s, more than 50% for each of these items), universities also spent about 20% [National Survey of Research..., 2007, p. 7, 8]. As in highly developed countries, South Africa is undergoing an innovative transformation of the private enterprise sector, albeit not so fast and large-scale: the restructuring of the R & D system in corporations, the gradual transition from a closed model of their development to an open one. The closed model of research processes based on the use of internal resources of companies (20% of business spending on R & D in 2004) is increasingly combined with an open model focused on the so - called outsourcing-attracting external sources of innovative growth (7.8% of business spending on R & D in the same year, the rest - other forms, for example interaction between the branch and the parent company) [South African Innovation Survey..., 2007, p. 8], which significantly expands the possibilities of using new knowledge by attracting both other firms and independent research centers, university science, etc. as co-executors of R & D.

Recently, the role of the state in financing science and determining national priorities in this area has been growing again. Individual corporations and financial and industrial groups are not able to make an innovative revolution in production associated with the creation and implementation of the latest post-industrial technologies, even if we leave aside vital basic research (about 20% of R & D expenditures), which does not directly commercialize the development of new technologies.-

2 Whereas during the white minority period, admission to university was restricted to the" enhanced " Senior Certificate with endorsement, which certifies that a number of subjects, such as mathematics and physics, have been completed and successfully passed, many universities now accept Africans on any secondary school graduation certificate (Senior Certificate), and the most" strict " ones create preparatory departments for them, such as Soviet labor schools. In 2004, half of the 40,000 students who took the mathematics exam that qualifies them for admission to science and technology departments were African, while 61% of applicants passed the exam on average, while only 36% of Africans passed the exam (however, this is a great progress compared to less than 12% in 1999)... reduced requirements?) [Kapp, 2006, p. 144].

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high impact. The latest experience of advanced developing and highly developed countries has dispelled liberal illusions about de-etatization and convincingly showed that without an effective state, sustainable development, both socio-economic and scientific and technical, is impossible. Strengthening the influence of the state on the course of innovatization of the economy gives the necessary effect if its regulatory and incentive measures are optimally combined with the action of market mechanisms, while establishing partnerships between the public, private and university R & D sectors. "The state is increasingly playing the role of a partner of the entrepreneurial sector, and not to help enterprises maximize profits, but to promote the commercialization of the most socially effective innovations" [Mirovaya ekonomika..., 2007, p. 93].

In South Africa, it is planned, in particular, to significantly expand state incentives for such an important area of scientific and technological development as the development of biotechnology: through the National Research Foundation, the Medical and Agricultural Research Councils, the IRGC, the Biovenchurs Venture Capital Fund for Biotechnology, the National Network of Bioinformatics Institutes (where databases are created, computer modeling of biological processes is carried out), regional innovation centers of biotechnology, programs for creating vaccines, through university science, etc.

In 2001, the National Program for the Development of Biotechnology was adopted. With EU financial assistance, the state program for the creation of GODISA biotechnological business incubators is being implemented. There are currently 106 companies operating in this area, mostly new ones, of which only a tenth are still seriously involved in R & D. However, the biotechnology industry is making rapid progress. There is a gradual shift away from agrobiology, where South African science is characterized by a traditionally high level of research and great achievements, towards healthcare (of the four regional biotechnological innovation centers established in the current decade with state support, two, Cape Biotech in Cape Town and Ecobio in Natal-Kwazulu, are aimed at developing healthcare and pharmaceuticals and one each for biotechnology in crop production and animal husbandry).

Using biotechnologies combined with nanotechnology, dozens of drugs of "rational design" are being created, precisely delivered thanks to the knowledge of molecular processes to "point targets" in the body (the plan forecast of the development of South African science aims at a breakthrough in pharmaceuticals). Thus, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, with the assistance of the Council for Medical Research and the Universities of Pretoria and Stellenbosch, is currently developing new anti - tuberculosis drugs using nanotechnology (the tuberculosis epidemic in South Africa is the second most serious threat to the health of the nation after AIDS) with prolonged and targeted "delivery" to the body [CSIR..., 20.09.2006].

Work is underway to study and use traditional remedies and traditional medicine. So, among the bushmen-San living in the Kalahari Desert, it is a common custom to chew the cactus Hoodia gordonii to suppress feelings of hunger and thirst. In 1996, IRGC scientists isolated a hunger-suppressing steroid glycoside from the plant, known in the pharmaceutical market, where it entered after many years of testing in 2003, as P57. The drug is patented, in particular, in the United States and Great Britain, where it will be produced under license, and part of the license payments and sales profits (6-8%) will be directed to solving the social problems of the San people [Nature Biotechnology, December 2004, Supplement, p. DC38]. There are many similar examples.

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The aforementioned two leading universities (Pretoria and Stellenbosch) established the African Center for Genetic Technologies in 2005. Cells that produce substances with specified properties (molecular and cellular engineering) are grown, and biosensors are produced for diagnostics and environmental monitoring. Despite the existing concerns about the consequences, the creation and introduction of crops with genetically modified properties (resistant to drought and disease, with improved nutritional properties) continues. The share of genetically modified seeds in the largest crop production areas is constantly increasing: in the middle of the current decade, they accounted for 29% of white and 31% of yellow (fodder) corn grown in South Africa, 59% of soybeans and up to 90% of cotton [Cloete, 2006, p.9].

Diagnostics of diseases and vaccines for livestock and poultry are being developed (a number of such vaccines have been developed in recent years at the Onderspoort Veterinary Institute with the participation of the University of Pretoria, the genome-the genetic structure of the pathogenic bacterium Echlichia ruminantium-has been decoded for the first time in Africa), industrial production and the environment are being purified with the help of special bacteria (mining wastewater treatment technology developed in Rhodes University), precious metals are extracted from rock dumps (according to the VASOC technology developed by scientists of the South African Mineral Technology Council MINTEK and also used in Australia and China, a bacterial cocktail separates gold from the used gold-bearing rock) [Cloete, Nel, Theron, 2006] , etc.

The following table provides some insight into the dynamics and structure of R & D expenditures in the field of biotechnology:

Table 2

R & D expenditures in biotechnology and related fields (RAND million)

Research area

Private business

Higher education institutions

Public sector*

Total

2002

2004

2002

2004

2002

2004

2002

2004

Biochemistry

3.2

4.7

16.5

12.2

3.0

12.7

22.7

30.0

Genetics and Molecular Biology

5.4

8.1

13.2

14.8

12.5

25.3

31.1

48.4

Microbiology

9.9

7.1

12.6

26.4

14.4

39.9

38.1

73.4

Genetic engineering

-

10.9

6.0

3.7

-

13.0

6.0

27.6

Other areas of biotechnology

7.7

16.2

17.0

21.7

54.8

42.6

79.5

80.5

in total

26.2

47.0

65.4

78.7

84.7

133.5

177.5

259.9

* Mainly advice on agricultural and medical research.

Source: [Human resources Development Review 2008, p. 150].

Attention is drawn to the avalanche-like, almost fivefold increase in spending on research in the field of genetic engineering. With regard to agrobiology, the powerful Agricultural Research Council (second in budget after the IRGC), which has over 2.5 thousand R & D employees and dozens of laboratories and experimental farms across the country, sets the tone. Given the overall high rate of development of biotechnological research in the public sector and private companies, it is noteworthy that the university sector, which is undergoing administrative and structural restructuring, is somewhat lagging behind.

Interestingly, all South African Nobel laureates have been awarded for discoveries in medicine and biotechnology over the past half-century: Sidney Brenner in 2002 (research on controlled cell death during organ development), Aaron Kluge in 1982 (work on macromolecular biology), Allan McCormack in 1979 (invention of CAT scan: medical scanning and computed tomography) and Max Tayler in 1951 (yellow fever research).

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Among the development programs and projects that have emerged and have been successfully continued since the beginning of the scientific and technical modernization of South Africa, its nuclear project should be highlighted, which is discussed in detail in the monograph of the Russian researcher A.V. Pritvorov, devoted to the implementation of development projects in Southern Africa. According to him, in the research literature, due to the specificity of the nuclear topic, references to the South of Africa are rare, South Africa as a nuclear power is little known to a wide range of social scientists, or, unfortunately, it is not considered worthy of mention when considering modern problems of energy development [Pritvorov, 2007, p. 68].

Meanwhile, the South African nuclear project is very significant for Africa and for the entire world community in the peaceful use of nuclear energy and is very promising for the development of cooperation between Russia and other countries, including those in the CIS, with the states of Southern Africa. This is all the more obvious in the context of the impending global energy crisis. It is noteworthy that almost the only scientific and practical result of the IV meeting of the Joint Russian-South African Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific and Technical Cooperation on November 17-19, 2004 in Pretoria (the author participated in the meeting as an employee of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation) was an agreement on joint research of atomic energy for peaceful purposes. According to it, Russia will supply South Africa with enriched uranium for the Kuberga nuclear power plant under a contract signed between the Russian foreign trade association Techsnabexport and the South African company ESCOM. Our country will also cooperate with South African scientists in the field of theoretical and nuclear physics, for which South Africa will become a member of the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (an international intergovernmental research organization) [AfRo, 2004, N 6, p. 29].

In September 2006, during Vladimir Putin's visit to South Africa, further progress in this direction was outlined. Then he proposed to the South Africans to build a Russian nuclear power plant in South Africa, which corresponds to the plans of both countries to accelerate the introduction of nuclear energy. South Africa plans to increase the share of nuclear power plants in energy consumption from 6 to 20% by 2020. These will mainly be third-generation pressurized water reactors that are widely used in the world, such as the existing 1800 MW Kuberg nuclear power plant, but they will be significantly supplemented (to cover peak loads and meet the needs of hydrogen power) by a new type of PBMR, which will be discussed below [Innovation Towards..., 2006, p. 20-21].

In general, it should be said that South Africa has suddenly found itself in a situation of energy crisis, caused primarily by underestimation of the country's energy capacity in the context of a significant acceleration of economic growth (the country's unified energy system will need from 60 to 90 thousand tons by the end of the next decade). MW of electricity instead of the previously expected 55 thousand) [Innovation Towards..., 2006, p. 18] and delays in their commissioning due to pressure from environmental organizations (two of them, Koeburg Alert and Earthlife Africa, even tried to stop the development of nuclear energy in the country in court).

The transition to the development and practical application of nuclear power plants has given a serious impetus to the development of advanced technologies in South Africa and the improvement of quality and safety standards. About 100 local companies supply equipment for nuclear power plants in Kuberg. In addition, South African scientists have made significant progress in the development of fourth-generation reactors based on ball fuel elements (Pebble Bed Modular Reactor, PBMR, modular reactor with ball backfill, high-temperature, cooled by helium). An experimental reactor of this type is being completed in Kuberg (another one has already been built with the assistance of yuzhnoaf-

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American scientists in Beijing). Starting in 2016, South Africa plans to start commercial production of PBMR, small (average capacity of 170 MW against 1 thousand MW). MW for a standard pressurized water reactor), but with high efficiency and a small amount of waste, easy to manage and highly safe [Innovation Towards..., 2006, p. 18].

Modular power engineering uses autonomous and fairly easily replaceable (like batteries) elements that can be manufactured centrally at the parent plants and delivered to any, including remote, areas where they can work for decades without human intervention. Experts of ESCOM (South African energy corporation - operator of PBMR and the entire power system of the country) believe that a reactor of this type always remains intact, completely safe (even if the staff has to leave the station urgently, it will "stop" itself), because incidents that can lead to radiation release through damage to fuel cells are impossible at PBMR. This conclusion is due to the thermal stability and integrity of graphite fuel assemblies (balls) the size of a tennis ball, of which there are about 400 thousand in the reactor. Each fuel element has a graphite core containing particles of enriched uranium (up to 10% - too little to interest terrorists and potential nuclear weapons manufacturers), enclosed in capsules of solid carbon.

Safety, compactness and ease of operation of PBMR will allow South Africa to continue to widely export reactors of this type not only to developed, but also to developing countries that do not have the skills to operate nuclear power plants. PBMR Pty, the reactor manufacturer, a high-tech South African company with a strong R & D base and 50 doctors of science in the state, plans to install up to 30 such reactors in South Africa in the future and manufacture 75 for export [www.southafrica.info/ess_info/sa_glance/scitech/pmbr]. Significant interest in this highly efficient and environmentally friendly South African nuclear technology has recently been shown, in particular, in the United States, where expert opinions are expressed about the upcoming modular nuclear revolution based on the mass production of modular mini-nuclear power plants.

In addition to nuclear power, the innovative development of the industry will focus on the development of" clean " technologies for coal mining and processing (for example, an underground coal gasification plant is being built in Majuba), biofuels and so-called hydrogen energy, in which many environmentalists see salvation from the coming global warming. Currently, environmentally friendly hydrogen, or, as it is also called, hydrogenic, energy is given great attention in many developed countries, large funds are invested in R & D, but the process of mastering new technologies in this area is only just beginning. In South Africa, it is planned to produce hydrogen from water and biomass using atomic energy (high - temperature PBMR is most suitable for splitting water vapor molecules-a German technology "brought" to South Africa) and solar energy and widely use it, in particular, in transport engines. In the context of the continued growth of world oil prices, the SASOL Corporation's production of synthetic fuels, liquid and gaseous, from coal, established in South Africa, has become profitable (the latter, in particular, may turn out to be the cheapest for the production of hydrogen).

In accordance with the ten-year plan for innovative development of the country, it is planned to conquer up to a quarter of the world market for hydrogen energy and fuel cells with platinum catalysts by 2018 (South Africa has 87% of the world's platinum reserves and already provides the world automotive industry with platinum catalysts for cleaning exhaust gases) [Innovation Towards..., 2006, p. 20 - 22]. New technological challenges are associated with

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the problems of developing appropriate automobile engines based on hydrogen elements and the very process of converting the transport sector to hydrogen. It is assumed that hydrogen will be able to occupy 10-15% of the transport fuel market in the coming decades.

In accordance with the plan to accelerate the innovative development of the economy, state allocations for the creation of venture funds (stimulating the creation of innovative companies), technology parks, and business incubators are multiplying, the research and experimental base of universities is expanding, and the training of specialists, including more and more black people, is expanding (although their qualifications leave much to be desired so far). A significant part of scientific research, both fundamental and applied, is carried out by higher education institutions (21% in 2004/05, the same as the public sector) [http://www.studysa.co.za].

In general, as already noted, at least 20% of the budget is spent on education in the country, and expenditures increase by 8-9% per year, exceeding the GDP growth rate. Significant funds should be invested and are already being invested in the development of bio-and nanotechnologies, aerospace research, energy, and the fight against epidemics (first of all, the AIDS epidemic, which threatens a national catastrophe). It is expected that South Africa will build and launch its own 3 satellites (Sunspace and Information Systems and the IRGC satellite communication station have already built a mini-satellite worth 26 million rand Sumbandilasat, weighing 80 kg and 1.5 m long, which, located at an altitude of 500 km, will be It should have been used primarily for natural and climate monitoring; under an agreement with Roscosmos, it was supposed to be launched from a Russian submarine in the Murmansk region in 2007, but the launch was unfortunately disrupted due to the fault of the Russian side [www.dst.gov.za/media/room/press-releases-1/name], will become one of the world leaders in the pharmaceutical industry, relying on the richest resources of medicinal raw materials (the country ranks third in the world in terms of biodiversity), and will also master the full cycle of uranium enrichment.

Some skepticism is caused, however, by the irrepressible "technological optimism" of the authors of the innovative transformation plan, as if they had forgotten that the scientific and technological progress of mankind generated no less problems than it solved. So, enthusiasts of genetic engineering, which is being intensively implemented in South Africa, in principle cannot but know what serious consequences long-term consumption of its products will lead to for the human body. For example, cereals that have a rat gene implanted in their genetic structure to increase resistance to adverse environmental influences (and rats are known for their ability to survive in any environment). and so on.

A positive factor in the transformation of the "resource economy " into a" knowledge economy " is that today, in contrast to the relatively meager 1990s, the southern part of the country has a relatively small population.-

3 During the apartheid era, South Africa already had a secret rocket and space program aimed at creating nuclear launch vehicles and mini-reconnaissance satellites: its peak development occurred in the 1980s, when Israeli-built rockets (several RSA modifications) were already being tested at the Hautek military training grounds (Overberg cosmodrome) west of Cape Town.-3 based on the Israeli Jericho rocket, a Shavit-type launcher). The program employed up to 1.5 thousand people and over 50 companies. By 1994, the program was curtailed, the further fate of the manufactured equipment is unknown [www.astronautix.com/lvc/rsa 3.htm]. The first South African research microsatellite Sunsat (SUNSAT-1), designed by scientists at Stellenbosch University, was launched into orbit by NASA in 1999; the design of the high-resolution camera designed for the satellite was so successful that the corresponding technology was purchased by South Korea for its KITSAT-3 satellite [www.cellular.co.za/sunsat.hym].

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the African state and business have enough money (thanks to unprecedented long-term economic growth, a wide influx of foreign investment, including in science, which is 15% funded from outside, etc.). To a significant extent, it was possible to overcome the degradation of scientific and industrial and (to a lesser extent) intellectual potential that took place in the first years after the elimination of the apartheid regime in the context of a significant decrease in R & D spending (especially military spending), stagnation and instability, and the flight of qualified personnel and capital. It is important that all stakeholders, and especially the heads of relevant government agencies in South Africa, have already fully realized that innovation is the main source and incentive for economic growth and social progress, and that its development is inevitably associated with high costs and certain risks. However, the "flow of innovations" is observed so far only in a few areas of scientific and technological progress outlined in the ten-year plan for innovative transformation of the South African economy, such as biotechnology (so far more in terms of traditionally strong agrobiology), and some areas of energy (coal chemistry, nuclear energy). There are good prospects for space exploration. A strong research base in the field of mining and processing of minerals (especially gold and platinoids, which are widely used in the latest technologies) remains important for the country.

As noted in the recently published monograph of Russian researchers G. V. Shubin and I. I. Maidanov, devoted to the development of the military-industrial complex of South Africa, this country "can become an important producer of the most modern high-tech military equipment produced under licenses or with the support of Western firms" (Shubin, 2008, p. 156). We are talking about high-tech military equipment and weapons, such as helicopters, fighter jets, attack aircraft, tanks, armored personnel carriers, missiles and related electronics and optics.
The restoration and development of the country's scientific potential on a new technological basis is well funded, and the necessary facilities are actually being built and equipped. At the same time, all the efforts of the state, academic and business communities have not yet yielded and may not yield significant, "breakthrough" results due to the limited human resource base of South African science, the lack of a" critical mass " of highly qualified specialists, the continuing emigration and aging of the remaining scientific and engineering personnel (in 1990, 18.2% of authors of scientific publications in South Africa were over 50 years old, in 2002 - already 46.1%) [www.info.gov.za/speeches - 10.10.2006]. Suffice it to say that by 2018, the number of researchers (in terms of full-time employment) is projected to reach only 20 thousand people, only a quarter higher than the current figure, which is clearly not enough to implement the above-mentioned ambitious plans [Innovation Towards..., 2006, p. 9]. The figures of recent years show an advanced implementation of this plan, but experts note a decrease in academic standards of training specialists for the sake of increasing its quantitative parameters. It also criticizes the general incompleteness of the development of mechanisms that ensure the transition of the economy to an innovative model.

The situation is not much better with the admission of highly qualified specialists to the economy that is experiencing a shortage of qualified personnel. In 2004, out of more than 100 thous. only 20 thousand university graduates (half white, half black) were graduates of engineering and technical faculties, faculties of Law and Business (Management) [Business Day, 28.05.2007], so necessary for innovation activities.

Thus, the human / personnel factor remains the weakest link in its implementation. Activating this factor has become a top priority.

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Successful development of scientific and technological potential, especially human resources, in accordance with the objectives of the ten-year plan also directly depends on maintaining the climate of political stability in the country and significantly reducing the crime rate, which is one of the highest in the world. Now, political stability is in doubt due to the recent split in the leadership of the ruling African National Congress party, caused by the election of J. Zuma, a "dissident" (previously expelled from the post of vice-president of the country) and a populist, as its president, which opens up the prospect of becoming president of South Africa in 2009.

Zuma, a charismatic leftist and trade union darling, is far more popular among the African population than current President Thabo Mbeki, who has a reputation for being a pro-Western liberal. During the years of the latter's rule (since 1999), class boundaries ceased to coincide with racial ones. The program "Black Economic Empowerment" is being implemented - the entry of blacks into economic power: gradual (the example of the economic catastrophe in neighboring Zimbabwe has so far saved us from forcing this policy) the process of transferring shares, land, and leadership positions to representatives of the black population. A lot of black millionaires appeared, "children of the revolution of 1994", very similar in appearance and habits to the "new Russians" of the first bottling, in crimson jackets and with"gold". In fact, most of them are still closer to requesters than to real participants in the production and management process. Approximately ten percent of rich Africans have formed, and a black middle class is emerging. At the same time, however, a systematic solution to the problem of mass poverty, a comprehensive transformation of the entire social sphere necessary for the successful development of the country (the country does not have a single minimum wage and pension, public health insurance, etc.) is replaced by a massive distribution of social handouts-grants, which are already" hooked " by about a third of black people South Africans. As far as crime is concerned, South Africa ranked unenviably first in the world in terms of the number of deaths from gunshot wounds per capita at the beginning of this decade. Proper treatment of HIV-infected and AIDS patients has begun with great delay (the government has long considered AIDS a product of poverty and prevented the purchase of necessary medicines), 4 which now kills about half a million people a year, and the economy suffers great losses.

At the same time, the continued stability of the institutions of political democracy (the post-apartheid elections of 1994, 1999, and 2004 were successfully held) and civil society (the costs of democracy and civil society can, however, be attributed to the dominance of environmentalists from influential non-governmental organizations, which in every possible way hinder the development of the country's energy sector)are favorable for the preservation and multiplication of "human capital" as well as the climate of national reconciliation. In the same row - respect for civil liberties, comparative control and not very high, by African standards, corruption of the bureaucracy, as well as real independence of the judiciary. And, again, the level of economic, educational and cultural development is quite high.

In general, it can be stated that the South African State (unlike the vast majority of other countries on the continent) has the means and practical opportunities to fulfill, albeit with some delay, its obligations to improve the socio-economic and scientific and educational infrastructure. The economic recovery of the last decade, as well as the preparation and holding of the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa, with the accompanying large-scale investments in infrastructure (from high-tech facilities are planned

4 In particular, those that allow the majority of HIV-infected women, and one third of South African women of reproductive age are infected, to give birth to healthy children.

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construction of a high-speed railway) and increased employment suggest that resources to increase the knowledge intensity of the economy and, not least, to mitigate social tensions in the country in the coming years will remain. Further prospects, including for the innovative development of the economy, are less obvious due to the negative factors discussed above. The success of implementing an innovative strategy largely depends on the presence of a forward-thinking, dynamic political leadership that meets high intellectual and moral standards.

In any case, South Africa has already entered the path of post-industrial, innovative development. The coming decade will show how sustainable and successful it will be (including in terms of social consequences: overcoming huge inequality, preventing extinction from HIV infection, etc.). Here, of course, much depends not only on internal factors, but also on the global market situation (the transition from the resource economy to the knowledge economy the increasingly virtual and "Internet-dependent" economy is also fraught with considerable dangers: the colossal scale and turnover of the global financial market, which is increasingly disconnected from the real economy, huge masses of speculative capital freely moving around the world can bring down any open market economy), from the global geopolitical situation, not to mention the natural disasters that lie in wait for humanity...

Other countries of the "world South", and first of all the African continent, are looking forward to South Africa's progress on the path of innovative transformation of the economy ("if South Africa can't cope, then who can?"). South Africa's success or failure on this path also determines their future.

list of literature

Demkina L. A. Some aspects of socio-political development of South African society after 1994, Moscow, 2006.

Korchagin Yu. A. Russian human capital. Development or degradation factor? Voronezh, 2005.

World Economy: Forecast until 2020, Moscow, 2007.

Pritvorov A.V. Experience in implementing development projects in Southern Africa, Moscow, 2007.
Problems of development of South Africa and Zimbabwe, Moscow, 2007.
Chernetsky Yu. A. Mirovaya ekonomika [World Economy]. Course of lectures, Moscow, 2007.
Shubin G. V., Maidanov I. I. Armed forces and Military industry of South Africa, Moscow, 2008.
CIA. The World Factbook - South Africa. 2007.

Cloete T., Nel L., Theron J. Biotechnology in South Africa. Pretoria, 2006.

CSIR focuses on sustainable science for the future. CSIR media release. 20.09.2006.

Human Resources Development Review. Cape Town, 2008.

Innovation Towards a Knowledge-based Economy. Ten-year Plan for South Africa (2008 - 2018). Pretoria, 2006.

The Global Technology Revolution 2020. Santa Monica (CA), 2006.

Kahn M. Science and Technology Policy // South African Human Resources Review. Cape Town, 2008.

South African National Survey of Research and Experimental Development 2005/2006. Pretoria, 2007.

South African Innovation Survey 2005. Pretoria, 2007.

South African National Research and Development Strategy. The Government of the Republic of South Africa. Pretoria, 2002.

AfRo (Russian-African business magazine).

Business Day

Mail&Guardian

Nature Biotechnology

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www.dst.gov.za/media/room/press-releases- www.cellular.co.za/sunsat.hym1/name www.hsrcpress.ac.za

www.link.wits.ac.za

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www.studysa.co.za

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