Most African countries most a income profile. distributions from directly dependent food distribution systems determined in therefore consumption. Food standards higher more secure , but Asia, as a region, easy feed such population not enough, 35 years coming in agricultural products produced regional and global level on research results For Africa. and Asia countries food accumulated the world, potential assessed attempt made article B (sub Saharan Africa), where with existing social, technological and economic organization will be absolute shortage food - problem solved in coming years either through international food injections (on paid or charitable basis). or creating fundamentally new technologies cultivation agricultural crops and new organizational structures.

words: Keywords agriculture, forecast, food production, food consumption, grain, meat, Asia, Africa.

The inability to fully solve the food problem in the context of almost complete globalization of the world economy raises great concerns despite the adoption of the food policy in 2000. The UN Millennium Declaration, which proclaims the elimination of absolute poverty and hunger as its main goal. Assessing the achievements of humanity in solving the food problem, it should be noted that it is not fueled by an absolute shortage of food (with the exception of Africa, where a number of countries will continue to have food shortages by 2050). From 1980 to 2012, with a 1.6-fold increase in the world population, the production of cereals increased 1.6-fold, the production of oilseeds - 3.7 - fold, legumes - 1.8 - fold, fruits and vegetables - 3-fold, meat-2.2-fold, milk-1.6-fold. Hence, the main obstacle is hidden in the distribution system. However, in addition to food distribution inequality, which is formed due to income and/or resource base inequality (within a country or at the international level), there are economic reasons that can be explained by the increasing globalization of the world economy.

First, the upward, often spasmodic dynamics of world food prices in the context of increasing internationalization of international trade leads to an outflow of food resources. Secondly, the changing role of agricultural products, in particular their use as raw materials for industrial needs (bioenergy, chemical industry, etc.), causes their distraction from food needs. This distraction is much stronger in countries that are more integrated into the global economy. Third, the grain sector, which is designed to create resources to fight hunger, is affected by a triple burden - food needs, demand for industrial needs, raw materials for industrial feed production, which acts as a separate rapidly developing industry. The latter has become particularly relevant in connection with the development of intensive types of animal husbandry on an industrial basis.

Over the past thirty years, the world's agriculture industry has undergone revolutionary changes. Quantitative agricultural growth has left the former leaders-the West1 countries - and moved to the fast-growing countries of Asia. Currently, the question of how this vector of movement will affect the countries of Africa is expected to be answered. Will the countries of Africa (primarily sub - Saharan Africa) be able to reverse the historical trend and engage in intensive agricultural growth? (Since intensive growth in the modern period is impossible without knowledge-intensive technologies, we recognize the analogy between the terms intensive and innovative growth). Let's look at what the trend scenario of development is preparing for agriculture in Asia and Africa, and outline those facets of agricultural development in the first half of the XXI century that seem real today.

Two technological methods of production (TSP) in agriculture of the countries of the East (land-saving TSP) and the West (labor-saving TSP)formed in a distant historical retrospect For a long time to come, they will have a decisive impact on reproduction in the agricultural sector of these countries2. The labor-saving TSP, whose efficiency depends on the constant expansion of land areas, and recently on state subsidies, and the land - saving TSP, which functions only in the presence of agricultural overpopulation , in their classical versions will not merge in the next half century, and the vectors of their evolution will not intersect.

Agricultural overpopulation, which has emerged as an immanent feature of a land-saving TSP, will continue to affect agricultural reproduction in the Eastern countries for a long time, since there is no economic mechanism to resolve agricultural overpopulation, which feeds the low cost of labor in agriculture. Having historically emerged as a response to the need for additional labor for growing crops in the agricultural practice of the Eastern countries, which far exceeds the agricultural needs of the Western countries, agricultural overpopulation further contributed to the formation of the smallest economy, low labor costs, and low incomes in the agricultural sector of the Eastern countries.

The size of the area under cultivation per agricultural worker-an indicator that indirectly assesses the degree of agricultural overpopulation-will remain virtually unchanged in Asia and Africa over the next half-century and will remain one to two orders of magnitude lower than in North America and Western Europe (see Table 1). 1). This will be explained not by the absolute, but by the relative shortage of agricultural land in the countries of Asia and Africa, or rather, by the huge mass of the population concentrated in agriculture. The share of the population employed in agriculture on average in all Asian countries is currently more than 50%, and by 2050 it will not fall below 35-37% (the same indicators are typical for Africa), in contrast to Western countries, where this share will be less than 1 % [Deryugina, 2015, p. 33]. The excessive number of agricultural workers will determine much lower labor stock ratios than in Western countries (see Table 1). 1), although in terms of gross fixed assets (fixed capital), Asian countries are by no means lagging behind the countries of North America or Western Europe. And when

¹ This refers to the countries of Western Europe and North America, which dominated world agriculture throughout the second half of the 20th century. Over the past thirty years, they have qualitatively changed their agricultural sector, actively using all advanced high-tech technologies, including resource-saving technologies. Asian countries, which have long occupied the world's leading positions in terms of production volumes, are lagging quite significantly behind this level of knowledge intensity due to the historically established technological method of production.

² For details on two technological methods of production in agriculture in the East and West and on the conditions of their historical formation, see: [Rastyannikov and Deryugina, 2013-2014; Deryugina, 2013].

Table 1

Economic issues specifications agricultural sector productions

Source: 2010 [FAOSTAT]; 2050-calculated data.

¹ Cultivated area (arable and occupied by perennial plantings) per agricultural worker (ha per person). The number of employees is estimated as the number of economically active population in agriculture.

² Fixed assets (fixed capital) per employee (thousand dollars per person; prices in 2005).

³ Gross agricultural output per employee (thousand dollars per person; 2005 prices)

⁴ Gross agricultural output per 1 hectare of cultivated area (thousand US dollars)/ha; prices in 2005).

⁵ Gross agricultural output per unit of invested fixed assets (return on investment) (%).

When comparing the concentration of capital per unit of cultivated area, East and West Asian countries are currently about twice as large as North American countries, and this gap will continue until 2050.

The result of low stock availability in agriculture in Asia and Africa is currently low labor productivity, which, according to the laws of economic efficiency, with low labor costs, has no incentives for growth. In agriculture of the land-saving TSP, which is widespread in Asian countries, there are no mechanisms that would form the "motivation"of economic agents to achieve high labor productivity3, and as a result, it will remain at the same low level until the middle of the XXI century (see Table ).

In contrast to labor productivity, land productivity, which has historically been a target function of the evolution of land-saving TSP and, consequently, agricultural growth in Asian countries, is already higher in the East than in the West. In the future, this ratio will continue, and agriculture

³ The term was proposed by G. A. Murray and expanded by D. K. McClelland.

In terms of land productivity, East Asia will far outstrip all Western countries (see Table 1) .

Capital productivity in agriculture is an indicator that determines the efficiency of capital investment in agriculture. According to this indicator, Asian countries, primarily East Asian countries, are absolutely ahead of North American countries and are approximately at the level of Western European countries (see Table 1) . This indicates that the return on capital invested in land-saving technologies (agriculture in Asia), with a low price and unlimited supply of labor, is much higher than capital invested exclusively in labor-saving technologies (agriculture in North America). By the middle of the twenty-first century, earth-saving technologies, which have received a rich boost due to the development of the biotechnological revolution, will show even greater efficiency, and investments in their implementation will be more profitable than in labor-saving technologies. Agriculture in Western Europe shows and will continue to show high economic efficiency precisely due to the combination of land-saving and labor-saving technologies, while agriculture in North America, which has unlimited opportunities to expand its land area and focuses mainly on labor-saving technologies, will lose out in capital productivity.

For agriculture in Asia and Africa, high capital productivity will be associated with the introduction of biotechnologies in many sectors of agriculture, and first of all in the creation of new varieties of high-yielding seeds that are resistant to drought and climate change, which can significantly increase the yield of agricultural crops.

When long-term forecasting of grain yield, it is necessary to keep in mind the triple assessment of the yield indicator. First, the potential yield, i.e. the maximum yield that can be achieved (in strictly controlled areas), using all scientific developments in the field of genetics, agronomy, management, as well as the necessary mineral fertilizers and irrigation. The global average potential grain yield will be approximately 90 centners/ha by 2050. Secondly, the optimal yield obtained in cases that are close to real agronomic and managerial conditions, but with optimal market components (high producer prices, subsidies). In this case, the global grain yield will be approximately 65 centners/ha by 2050. Third, the average yield that farmers can get: by 2050, according to FAO estimates, it will be 45-50 centners / ha [Looking Ahead in World Food and Agriculture, 2011, p. 394]. The greatest interest is not the amount of potential yield that new technologies can provide, but the average yield, the upper limit of which will be limited by real economic conditions, management, market determinants, and government support. North America and Western Europe will continue to lead the world in grain yields.⁴ The fastest yield growth is expected in the countries of East Asia (China, South Korea, Japan) (see Figure 1). From an institutional point of view, agriculture is best prepared for the introduction of new technologies that increase yields, including due to a large amount of mineral fertilizers (and if technologies are developed, fertilizers obtained from natural resources). from alternative sources).

In the forecast period, the countries of South and South-East Asia will also have a fairly high growth rate of grain yields, but in 2050, the growth rate of grain production will be quite high. they will be almost in

⁴ In North American agriculture, the United States will lead the way thanks to high corn yields, which incorporate all the cutting-edge achievements of scientific and technological progress, including the results of the biotechnological revolution (GM varieties).

Drawing

kg of 100 crops, grain yield/ha

Source: 2010 - [FAOSTAT]; 2050-calculated data.

1) . The upper limit of grain yields in these regions will limit investment resources, which will be insufficient on a per-unit basis.

In no sub-region of Asia do remnants of traditional relations manifest themselves in the same way as in South Asia. Here, the agricultural sector is most clearly divided into sectors of modern and traditional economy, the modernization of the latter in the coming decades is under great question. Low technological level, lack of resources, and inability to implement modern management methods will distinguish the traditional agricultural sector in South Asia, so grain yields will be significantly lower than in East or South-East Asia (see Figure 1) .

The question arises: will the results of the second "green revolution" be fully implemented, similar to the first one that took place in the 1960s and 1970s? It is assumed that the technologies of the second "green revolution", which have so far become widespread among crops in demand on the world market, will begin to be introduced more widely in South and Southeast Asia. This is due to the fact that agriculture will be more integrated into the global market and, accordingly, the change of traditional crops to market crops will continue, which will determine the main increase in yield.

It is the increase in yield that will ultimately determine the increase in grain production. The potential for expansion of cultivated areas is only found in Indonesia (an extensive type of expansion) and in China, where only 24% of the agricultural area is currently under cultivation. In China, an intensive type of expansion of cultivated areas is expected, i.e., thanks to new technologies, agricultural land that was previously economically unprofitable to engage in agriculture will be included in the turnover.

The rapid growth of grain production, driven by the introduction of new intensive (currently science - intensive) technologies, outstrips all the most optimistic forecasts. Gross grain production will increasingly shift to the Asian region. Thus, in the early 1980s, it accounted for 36% of all global grain collections, in the early 2010s-46% [FAOSTAT], and by 2050 this figure will exceed 50%. However, the proportions within the region will shift somewhat. If in 2010, the largest volume of grain production was recorded in East Asia, then by 2050, by the end of the year, the largest volume of grain production was recorded in the United States.

Table 2

Production and consumption grains, millions t

Source: 2010 [FAOSTAT]; 2050-calculated data.

¹ Since Russia had a ban on the export of certain grain crops in 2010-2011, the table shows the data for 2012.

It will be closely followed by South Asia, and South-East Asia will take the first positions in rice production (see Table ).

Currently, rice accounts for about a fifth of the world's grain production. By the middle of the twenty-first century, thanks to the improvement of the food situation in Africa, its share will increase to a quarter. Asia will remain the main rice - producing region, accounting for over 90% of the world's total rice production. Rice production is gradually being redistributed from East Asia, where 41% of the world's rice was grown in the 1980s, to South-East Asia. Thus, rice production in East Asia fell to 31% by the early 2010s, while in South-East Asia it increased from 21% to 30% between 1980 and 2012.

East Asia saw the biggest drop in the role of rice in cereal production. The main contribution to this process was made by China, which is rapidly reducing the share of rice in grain production. So, in 1980, the country produced 36% of the world's rice volume, in 2012 - 28%, in 2050 it will produce 24%. In South-East Asia, which is becoming the world's leading rice producer, there is a gradual change of leaders. If in the 1980s Indonesia was the main rice producer in the region (17% of world production), by the beginning of the 2010s it accounted for only 10%, and Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines occupied the vacant niche. Thus, East Asia, which was still the main rice producer in the region at the end of the 20th century, will take the third place, behind the first - Southeast Asia, and the second-South Asia (see Table 2) .

The global wheat market has undergone radical changes since the 1980s. Previously, the main wheat producers were Western countries (Europe, North America), but by the beginning of the 1990s, these countries began to lose their positions in the global wheat market in favor of Asian countries, in particular South and East Asia, and by the beginning of the 2010s, these two regions were already significantly superior to North America and North America. 2 . In 2050, Western countries will produce less than 37% of the world's wheat, while Eastern countries will produce more than 55%, with India producing about 20% and China 16%. Since the late 2000s. India has joined the club of leading grain exporters. This trend will continue in the future, if the country does not introduce bans on grain exports.

In the structure of grain production, the role of wheat is growing in most wheat-producing regions of the world. Its role in South Asia and East Asia has increased markedly over the past thirty years. There is a relative reduction in the share of rice in grain production and an increase in the share of wheat. In South Asia, the changes are as follows:: 33% (1980), 38 (2010), 42% (2050), in East Asia - 22% (1980), 26 (2010), 35% (2050).

The structure of grain production that has changed over the past 30 years has been determined by shifts in the structure of population consumption. The use of grain crops for food needs was reduced everywhere and their use for industrial purposes was expanded. The demand for agricultural crops as raw materials for the feed industry and for industrial production increased more and more. The demonstration effect in food consumption was manifested in an increase in mass demand for food products of a higher social group of the population, or the population of rich countries , such as meat, vegetables, fruits, fish, and rare grains for this region. The ideal was the type of food (diet) of highly developed Western countries with a high content of meat and dairy products.

On average, over the past 30 years, food grain consumption per capita has remained virtually unchanged at 146.7 kg per person per year. If the current trends continue, the figure will increase to 151.7 kg per person by 2050. Stagnation of food grain consumption per capita was typical for most regions of the world during this period (with the exception of Africa and South-East Asia).

In the aggregate grain consumption in the Eastern countries, the structure of consumption will significantly change - food consumption will decrease and non-food consumption will increase. Although with a large lag, Asian countries repeat the dynamics of the countries of North America and Europe. Currently, food consumption accounts for only 11% of total grain consumption in North America and 21% in Western Europe. In Asia, the average share of food consumption has decreased from 68% to 56% over the past 30 years, including in East Asian countries - from 61% to 46%. Most grain for food purposes is currently consumed in South Asia - up to 75% [FAOSTAT]. In the future, this trend will continue, but probably more slowly, and in 2050 the share of food consumption in total grain consumption will fall by another 3-5 percentage points. A slow decline in the share of food consumption is assumed based on the fact that the UN Millennium Development Goals Program will be implemented to a certain extent. Improving living standards and measures to eliminate hunger will lead to the fact that the share of food consumption will fall slightly more slowly than in previous years, as the consumption of cereals in poor groups of the population will increase faster.

Overall growth in total grain consumption (see Table). 2) will be provided at the expense of domestic production. Aspiration of most developing countries

The demand for self-sufficiency in grain, meat and other foodstuffs will increase even more. On average, the grain deficit in the region will significantly decrease (see Table ).

Currently, the largest flow of world grain imports goes to Asia. In 2010, the foreign trade balance of grain amounted to (- ) 95.1 million tons, and since 1980 it has grown by 50%. However, the average grain deficit in the Asian region in relation to total consumption over the past 40 years has been relatively stable - 9-10%. It is assumed that high growth rates of grain imports will continue in Asia until the mid-2020s, and then gradually begin to fall, and by 2050 imports will fall to 37.7 million tons. The relative dependence of grain consumption on imports will also decrease - the share of grain deficit in total consumption will be only 2% in 2050.

The only grain-surplus region in Asia is Central Asia, namely Kazakhstan. In the forecast period, it will gradually increase grain exports at first, and from the mid-2020s at an accelerated pace.

East Asia will gradually reduce its dependence on grain imports (see Table 2). It cannot be said that East Asian countries will abandon imports, but most likely, import flows will be redistributed, most of which will be carried out within the region.

South and South-East Asia will follow the same trend of reducing their dependence on imports, but these two large regions are already 95-98% supplied with grain from domestic production. In the future, the shortage of grain in them will decrease, and by 2050 self-sufficiency will increase to 98-99% of total consumption.

In general, the Asian region is expected to reduce its dependence on grain imports quite sharply. Agriculture in such countries as China, India, Thailand, and Vietnam will provide an intraregional surplus of grain, which to some extent will replace import flows from other regions. India, Thailand, and Vietnam are currently among the leading grain exporters. If no foreign trade restrictions are introduced, India alone will be able to export 25 million tons of grain in 2050, of which more than half will be wheat. China focuses on self-sufficiency in grain consumption, so the balance of foreign grain trade in the country is mainly maintained at zero, but in lean years with a lack of production, it can import a small amount of grain (no more than 2-3% of total consumption). The same policy will continue in the first half of the 21st century, and domestic grain production will meet its own needs.

Inter-regional purchases of Asian countries will mainly concern forage crops (for organizing their own meat production), industrial crops and crops for the pharmaceutical industry. Donors will include South America (feed), North America (industrial crops) and Western Europe (medicinal plants).

Under the trend scenario, the situation is worst in Africa, where the grain deficit will sharply increase (see Table 2). Even if the goals of the UN Millennium Declaration are partially implemented, population growth in Africa will not allow it to achieve self-sufficiency in food, even at a relatively high rate of its growth. Almost the only real donors are Europe and North America.

In the period 1980-2010, drastic changes took place in the global livestock sector. First of all, the geography of meat production has significantly expanded. In addition to the world's traditional meat producers, such as Europe, North America, and Australia, the regions of East Asia, South America, and, to a lesser extent, Southeast Asia have come to the forefront. In contrast to the countries of Europe and North America, where animal husbandry developed to a greater or lesser extent

Table 3

Production and consumption meat, millions t

Source: 2010 - [FAOSTAT]; 2050-calculated data.

"integration" with the plant-growing complex, which took over the production of feed, in the regions of East Asia and Southeast Asia, the commercial meat sector was created entirely on an industrial basis. In these countries, where the two agricultural sectors - animal husbandry and crop production - have historically been disintegrated, crop production resources have not been sufficient to form a feed base for livestock production. Therefore, the livestock complex emerged only when the international division of labor reached a new level, and feed production was separated into a separate industrial complex. National dietary patterns and conditions of industrial animal husbandry have to some extent limited the type of meat production in East and South-East Asia, which is most focused on pig and poultry farming.⁵ For example, in East Asia, pork accounted for over 60% and in Southeast Asia for over 40% of meat consumption in 2010, and poultry accounted for between 20 and 40% more. In South Asia, due to religious prohibitions, poultry meat is the main demand, in Western Asia - lamb and beef.

Asia now accounts for over 40% of the world's meat production, up from just 20% in 1980. The annual growth rate of total meat production in Asia in 1980-2010 was above 5%. Despite,

⁵ Currently, the development of meat farming in Asian countries is based on the creation of industrial pig and poultry breeding complexes. Beef production, which requires three to five times as much feed, is concentrated mainly in farms in the Americas and large complexes in Europe. For the production of 1 kg of beef, the consumption of 14 kg of feed crops is required, and for the production of 1 kg of pork, 5 kg of feed crops, for the production of poultry-3 kg [World chickens].

It is expected that the growth rate of meat production in the region will slow down slightly, and by 2050, more than 45% of the world's meat production will be concentrated in Asia.

Since the beginning of the 2000s, the world's leading meat producer has been the region of East Asia, or rather, China. China ranks first in the world in pork production, and second in broiler production. Over the period 1980-2012, total meat production in China increased 5.5 times, with an annual growth rate of 5.7% (see Table 3). If this trend continues, China will overcome the negative balance in foreign trade in meat and become an exporter by the end of the second decade of the XXI century. Total meat production in the East Asian region is dominated and will continue to be dominated by pork and poultry meat, which is associated with national dietary characteristics, conditions of maintenance and feed supply. Feedstuffs (corn and soybeans) will largely be imported from abroad, mainly from Brazil and partly from the United States and Canada.

The goal of developing meat production in Asian countries was to provide the population with protein-rich products. The fastest growth in per capita meat consumption was in the countries of East and South-East Asia. In East Asia, the figure increased from 16.2 kg per person (1980) to 56.4 kg (2010), and in China, from 14.6 kg per person to 58.2 kg. By all indications, the growth of per capita meat consumption will continue in the forecast period, and by 2040. East Asia will reach, and in 2050 surpass, the level of Western Europe (see Table 3) .

The countries of South-East Asia, where per capita meat consumption has increased 2.5 times over the past 30 years - from 9.8 kg per person (1980) to 26.4 kg/person (2010), will follow the East Asian trend, but at a lower level (see Table 3). The difference in indicators is due to First of all, the growth of average per capita incomes in most Southeast Asian countries lags behind the same indicator in East Asian countries.

Most Asian countries will provide themselves with meat from domestic production (see Table ). Meat shortages will occur in the regions of South-East and West Asia, as well as in Africa. This deficit will be eliminated mainly by trade flows from South America and partly from Western Europe and North America, where the largest surplus of meat products will be concentrated. Also, China could potentially create a large surplus of meat, which will be distributed within the Asian region.

In connection with the development of animal husbandry in East and South-East Asia, the following aspects attract attention. First, the diversion of resources from the production of food crops to feed crops, in particular corn and soybeans, has sharply increased (and this process will continue). Second, the global demand for industrial feed and feed crops increased, which affected the dynamics of world prices and further pushed the first process. Third, the use of a number of agricultural crops for the production of biofuels and chemical products has led to a new type of competition in the market - not only in relation to natural resources between food and feed crops, but also in relation to the crops themselves between feed purposes and their chemical use.

Now let's talk about what was not taken into account by the trend scenario of the forecast. A person's perception of the future, especially in the long run, is often characterized by underestimation of possible revolutionary technological transformations. As N. Silver notes, "information growth occurs faster than our understanding of how to process the received data develops" [Silver, 2015, p. 15]. Our thinking in the flow of new data is focused on the search for standard patterns, and we often miss, because we can not go beyond simple stereotypes and

standard schemes. And although N. Silver was referring to the field of global information technology, agricultural forecasting is also famous for this sin.

The presented forecast of agriculture is calculated on the basis of existing trends, and it is likely that real indicators in the middle of the XXI century in some regions will exceed the data indicated in the forecast. The growth rate of demand for agricultural products that has been observed in Asia over the past 30 years will gradually decrease. The sharp increase in demand was driven by such factors as: the growing power of these countries in the world market, an increase in per capita incomes, a demonstration demand for food, and the expansion of the range of agricultural products used for non-food purposes (especially in the fuel and energy industry). First of all, social and environmental factors will act as constraints: uneven income distribution, agricultural overpopulation, overexploitation of resources and their degradation due to the demand for qualitatively new products. As well as the cyclical nature of economic growth, in which the upswing phase is followed by a downturn phase.

But, as in any forecast, the agricultural forecast has its own "black swans", but they may not necessarily be black, but have white and gray shades. One of the predictable breakthroughs in the evolution of global agriculture can be the development of new technological solutions for agricultural practices in Africa and the creation of conditions under which their effective implementation will be possible. However, the presented forecast assumes a more realistic option. Even if new technologies are created for sub-Saharan Africa's agriculture, the socio-economic organization of agriculture will hinder an adequate response to these technologies.: the complex system of tillage that is common in large areas of the African continent, the smallest farms based on primitive manual labor, and the communal form of village organization that has been preserved in a number of countries. New technologies are still being developed, and the economic space in which they could be implemented is occupied by informal institutions that are not suitable for transformation, and it is most likely that the revolutionary transformation in African agriculture will be attributed to the second half of the twenty-first century.

One of the unfavorable shocks to global development may be the curtailment of globalization processes due to political tension (cataclysms) or an economic crisis. This will mean that the demand markets for the products of export-oriented fast-growing economies will shrink and, as a result, incomes in these countries will decrease.

Ecological disturbances of the world balance can be predicted by the example of uncontrolled expansion of the livestock complex. According to the calculations of Dutch scientists, 15 thousand liters of water are needed to grow one kilogram of meat. To produce a kilogram of pork, you need 6 thousand liters of water, chicken - 4.3 thousand liters.In crop production, the amount of water consumed is much less than ⁶.

Livestock production directly or indirectly generates almost a third of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, large livestock complexes with a population of more than 20 thousand pigs can be equated to a city with a population of more than 300 thousand people in terms of the amount of waste received. According to economic statistics, the cost of wastewater treatment plants for waste storage and processing reaches one-third of the total cost of the livestock complex. In the process of animal nutrition and decomposition of organic substances contained in manure, it is formed and released into the atmosphere

⁶ To grow 1 kg of beans, you need 4 thousand liters of water, 1 kg of soybeans-2.1 thousand liters, 1 thousand liters of water is required to grow 1 kg of wheat. To grow 1 kg of potatoes, you need to spend 100 liters of water, and 1 kg of rice-4 thousand liters of water [Mir Kur, 2011].

methane (_CH4) and nitric oxide (_NO2). Methane retains 23 times more heat and creates a thermal effect in the Earth's atmosphere than _CO2, which will have a direct impact on global warming.

Thus, if per capita incomes in Asian countries continue to increase and the middle class continues to strengthen, then not only the need for protein-rich food will increase, but also the ability to produce it. In this case, without the creation of fundamentally new technologies for cleaning industrial livestock complexes ⁷ (possibly an ecological complex for the production of feed), it is a controversial task from the point of view of ecology to fully meet the effective demand for meat in Asian countries.

list of literature

Deryugina I. V. Regional features of the development of agricultural economy (influence of intra-and inter-industry integration). 2013. N 1.

Deryugina I. V. Agriculture of the world countries : past and future 1980-2010-2050. Moscow, 2015.

chicken World For the production of 1 kg of meat requires 15,000 liters of water. 30.05.2011 // http://www.mirkur.ru/news/2701.

Rastyannikov V. G., Deryugina I. V. Two technological methods of production in agriculture in the West and East. Part I and II // Questions about statistics. 2013. N 11; 2014. N 1.

Silver N. Signal and noise: Why some forecasts true and others don't.Moscow, 2015.

FAOSTAT // http://faostat.fao.org/site/291/default.aspx (accessed: 23.10.2014).

Perspectives Agriculture: and Food World in Ahead Looking (о 2050. FАО, Rome: Ed. P. Conforti, 2011.

⁷ The same applies to aquaculture complexes, which have their own environmental problems, including the need for fresh water reserves.

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