Keywords: Africa, developing countries, demography, geostrategic rivalry, social instability

The development of the world economy at the beginning of the XXI century was marked by tectonic shifts in the balance of power of the leading economic centers of power. The most important change in the existing economic model is the rise of large developing countries, which have become a kind of locomotives of world development.

NEW POLES OF GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT

In 2006, Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC) introduced the term E7 (as opposed to the G7), which included countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.

In a 2013 PwC study entitled " The World in 2050. BRIC and Other Countries: Prospects, Challenges and Opportunities", Vietnam, Nigeria, South Africa, Malaysia, Poland, Saudi Arabia and Argentina were added to the most dynamically developing countries. According to PwC experts, emerging economies will undoubtedly develop much faster than the G7 countries in the next four decades.

The calculation of GDP growth indicators based on purchasing power parity (PPP) indicates that in the period from 2012 to 2050, the list of countries with the fastest economic growth rates will be headed by the largest African country in terms of population - Nigeria, followed by Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Saudi Arabia and South Korea. Africa.

"In the short term," said John Hawkesworth, Chief Economist at PwC, " the global financial crisis has hit the G7 countries much harder than the E7 countries. It has also prompted a revision of the G7's long-term growth forecasts, especially in the United States and those European countries that previously used huge amounts of public and private borrowing to promote growth."¹. This means that in terms of GDP growth (PPP), the E7 countries can surpass the G7 countries by 2020.

On October 8, 2014, IMF experts reported that China's GDP at PPP exceeded that of the United States by $200 billion.² By 2050, China, the United States and India can undoubtedly become the world's largest economies in absolute terms, and Brazil will be in fourth place, far behind the leaders, ahead of Japan. At the same time, the economies of Russia, Mexico, and Indonesia may surpass those of Germany or the United Kingdom in terms of GDP. Turkey can overtake Italy, and Nigeria can take a higher place in the leaderboard in the long run, as well as Vietnam and South Africa. In addition to the world's largest economies, Indonesia and Malaysia have long-term growth potential.³

GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS

It is noteworthy that the economic leaders of the 21st century are primarily developing countries with particularly large populations: China (1.357 billion in 2013), India (1.276 billion), Indonesia (248 million), Brazil (196 million), and Nigeria (174 million).⁴. In other words, forecasts for the economic growth of a number of developing countries in the first half of this century are based on a positive correlation between the rapid growth of their populations and the growth rate of their economies. But even 10-20 years ago, developing countries with a large population and high growth rates were considered as the most problematic states in terms of solving numerous economic and social problems.

Let us recall the various publications about the phenomenon of overpopulation of the Earth, starting with Thomas Malthus and his book "Essay on the law of population", published in 1798, where the author argued that the population of the Earth is growing exponentially, while its means of subsistence - in arithmetic progression, to the American bi-

The article was financially supported by the Russian State Scientific Foundation. Project N 14 - 07 - 00028 Aggressive non-state actors in geostrategic competition in " Islamic Africa "and some aspects of Russia's security after the"Arab Spring".

Table 1

World population in selected years (broken down by major region)

* The" average "forecast refers to the population size in 2050, taking into account the average rate of decline in fertility; "unchanged" means if fertility continues at current levels. The Difference column shows the numerical difference between the two forecasts.

Источник: World Population Prospects. UN., N.Y., 2006; 2013 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Wash. 2013, p. 7 - 12.

the slogan of Paul R. Ehrlich, who in 1968 declared a "bomb of overpopulation", predicting accelerated population growth now in backward developing countries, which will not keep up with the growth of food production and other resources necessary for human life.

Indeed, since the 1960s, the developing countries of the East and South have been characterized by accelerated population growth, which has been called the "demographic explosion"in the literature. It was caused by two main reasons - a sharp decline in a relatively short period of time (30-40 years) overall and infant mortality due to the use of the achievements of world medicine and the preservation of a sufficiently high level of the birth rate of the population, characteristic of backward agrarian societies.

Rapid demographic growth in developing countries was dangerous because the highest population growth rates (3 to 4%) were found in the poorest countries in Asia and sub - Saharan Africa. It was in these countries that the real threat of famine, increased poverty and unemployment emerged in the second half of the twentieth century, and, as a consequence, the threat of social and political destabilization both directly in these States and beyond their borders.

Nevertheless, gradually the processes of modernization of public structures, changing the model of demographic behavior, also affected developing countries. Factors that had the strongest impact on the decline in the birth rate were the involvement of women in the labor process, the increase in the educational level of the population, and industrialization and urbanization5.

The birth rate in the countries of the "World Periphery" began to decline, and the scientific, technological and" green " revolutions accelerated the development of agricultural production and the growth of the world economy, including in developing countries. The "demographic bomb" never exploded. According to current UN forecasts, by 2100 the world's population will reach 9-10 billion. and it will stop growing.

At the same time, the demographic picture of the world will undergo profound structural changes in the near future.

According to our calculations, based on the data in Table 1, the average annual population growth rate in the group of developed countries in the period from 1990 to 2013 did not exceed, on average, 0.2%, although it fluctuated between 1% in countries such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States (mainly due to immigrants) and negative values in Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Portugal, and the Russian Federation. According to the most optimistic forecasts for the West, the share of developed countries in the world population will be 15.8% in 2025, and only 13.4% ⁱⁿ 2050.6 According to other estimates, by 2025, the-

Table 2

Countries with the highest and lowest fertility in 2013

Source: 2013 World Population Data Sheet.., p. 6-7.

the population of developed countries will decrease not only relatively, but also absolutely and will amount to approximately 1.1 billion rubles. person ⁷.

The picture is quite different in developing countries. The average annual demographic growth rate in this group of countries from 1990 to 2013 was 1.4%, i.e. it was 7 times higher than in developed countries. It is developing countries that currently account for 95% of the world's population growth, and in the next 25 years their contribution will reach almost 100%^.8

Today 2.98 billion rubles. people, or 42.4% of the world's inhabitants, live in the BRICS countries - only China and India account for 37% of the world's population.

It is obvious that in the coming decades, in absolute terms, the increase in the World's population will occur mainly at the expense of these two demographic giants. However, in the 2000s. China, thanks to a strict state demographic policy, managed to reduce the population growth rate to 0.5% , according to international statistics. According to Chinese sources, in 2013, China's population declined by 0.8 million for the first time in many years.⁹

In India, the population growth rate continues to be quite high -1.5% (2013), but also tends to decline.

This is why, after 2025, the focus of global demographic growth will largely shift towards Africa, where the population growth rate currently remains the highest in the world at more than 2.5%.

Africa also has the highest fertility rates-the number of children born per woman of childbearing age (15-49 years) - 4.8 (for comparison: in the world - 2.5, in developed countries-1.6, in Asia and Latin America-2.2).

As can be seen from Table 2, all 10 "leading countries" in terms of fertility are located in Sub - Saharan Africa, but the group of countries with the lowest fertility includes South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan-newly industrialized Asian countries that showed high values of this indicator back in the 1980s. In China, by the way, the fertility rate is only 1.5, which is lower than in Europe (1.6 )and in the United States (1.9). Even in India, fertility is lower than the global average (2.4). This means that Asia, which made a significant contribution to world population growth in the 20th century, is passing the demographic baton to sub-Saharan Africa in the new millennium.

The share of Africans in the world's total population is growing from year to year. If in 1950 they were only 9%, then in 2013 they became 15.4%, and in 2050, according to the average forecast, almost a quarter of earthlings will live in Africa (see Table 1). From 2010 to 2050, Africa's contribution to world population growth will exceed the contribution of all other regions combined and it will amount to approximately 1.3 billion rubles. human. At the same time, the population of Asia will increase by less than 1 billion, the population of Latin America - by 200 million, and the number of inhabitants of the developed world will either remain unchanged or decrease by 100 - 200 million people.¹⁰

FROM THE "DEMOGRAPHIC BOMB" TO THE "DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND"

This raises a natural question about the changing role of the demographic factor in economic development. The example of Asian states clearly demonstrates that at a certain stage the "demographic bomb" turns into a" demographic dividend", which becomes one of the most important determinants of increasing the role of developing countries in the global economy. Why is this happening?

First, the role of highly populated developing countries (DCS) in shaping the global labor market is growing. Today, more than 80% of the world's labor resources are concentrated in the RS, accounting for 90% of the growth of the global labor market11. The second stage of the demographic transition process, which was completed in the developed regions of the world, led to the stabilization of the population in the countries of the North, consolidating the situation with the predominance of older age groups. All that

It requires institutional support for a new reality, namely, changes in the structure and sources of financing of social and pension insurance systems, including raising the retirement age bar.

By 2050, the proportion of people over 60 will exceed 30% in the United States, Canada, Europe, and China, and reach 40% in Japan and South Korea. All this will have a very negative impact on the economic growth of developed countries. In the period up to 2005, the labor force growth rate in the latter countries was 0.5-1% per year, labor productivity grew by an average of 1.7% per year, and the average annual GDP growth rate was 2.2 - 2.7%. Under current conditions, in countries where the growth of the working-age population is negative (a number of European countries, Japan, etc.), and labor productivity is growing more slowly than in developing countries, the economic growth rate will not exceed 1.5% per year12.

Survival of the Northern economies and preservation of the usual stereotypes of age-related behavior, well-being, etc. it is possible only if the problem of lack of human resources of young ages is solved. Specific ways can vary, starting with the importation of the necessary labor force to solving some economic problems by moving the actual production capacity to areas with an excess population.

However, even in this case, the problem is not fully solved and in many respects only for the medium term. The fact is that a number of areas of the South that are considered "young" by inertia are either no longer so (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore), or will cease to be so in the next decade (China). Of the major regions of the world, only Africa (and then only in sub-Saharan Africa) is at the very beginning of the second stage of demographic transition. In other words, the population here is growing rapidly, and mortality rates, especially for children, are rapidly decreasing. The result is a predominance of young people in the population structure.

As of 2013, the median age of the majority of sub-Saharan African countries is between 15 and 19 years ¹³.The proportion of people under the age of 15 today is 41% in Africa as a whole, 43% in sub - Saharan Africa, and 32% in North Africa. At the same time, the proportion of people over 65 years of age does not exceed 4, 3 and 5%, respectively.

In less than 20 years, today's African children will reach working age, and the number of retirees will increase much more slowly, as the life expectancy in Africa today does not exceed 59 years.¹⁴ And although it will undoubtedly increase, the dynamics of changes in this indicator is relatively low, since it depends on a whole range of various reasons - economic, social, cultural, military, etc.Thus, the dynamics of the world labor market in 2-3 decades will also largely be determined by the growth of the working - age population of African states.

Second, the accelerated growth of the population of developing countries in general and the African population in particular will lead to a change in the structure of world consumption in the coming decades. This is not just about food and basic necessities, the main demand for which has already shifted to developing countries. By 2050, the majority of consumers of goods such as cars, household appliances and electronics will live in developing countries, including in African countries.

It is in these countries that the middle class - the main engine of the domestic consumer market development-is growing rapidly. Thus, the latter in quantitative and qualitative terms will increasingly be formed at the expense of the countries of the "World Periphery".

Today, the growth of the Chinese domestic market has become the engine of economic growth in the world. By the middle of this century, the number of people living in Africa will approach 2 - 2.5 billion. In other words, in less than 40 years, the vector of global consumer demand will be significantly shifted towards the Black Continent, which will affect not only the quantitative characteristics of world consumption, but also its structure. To a large extent, the global economy will have to focus on a larger but less affluent consumer. This, in turn, will lead to a profound transformation of the global economy as a whole.

Third, accelerated population growth in Asia and Africa will shift the vector of international trade and global financial flows to the East and South in a decade or two. The growth of the economically active population in developing countries and its decline in Western countries over time will lead to an increase in the share of the former in the production of world industrial products and, ultimately, will contribute to the growth of exports of goods from Asia and Africa to Western countries, which will reduce the share of trade between developed countries themselves.

In the course of rapid population growth in developing countries, key industries are also likely to change - instead of the current outsourcing of production by Western companies, the most dynamically developing economies will be dominated by the export of their own products (in many respects, high - tech), which will be facilitated by the return to the country of highly qualified labor force currently employed by Western companies.

Fourth, there is already a question of whether the countries of the "golden billion" will be able to maintain their technological advantage. There is a high probability that the intensity of

Table 3

Key indicators of social development in the world and African regions

Source: 2013 World Population Data Sheet.., p. 7-18.

technological developments in the West, which create new goods and services, will also gradually decrease. This is due to the fact that the creators and consumers of this category of products are mainly young and middle-aged people, while representatives of the older generation are quite conservative in their choice and do not like technological innovations. However, the process of transition of leadership in R & D to the new "centers of power" of the world economy will be ambiguous and contradictory, since the huge reservoir of scientific and technological achievements accumulated by developed countries will allow them to maintain their leading positions in this area for a long time.

Finally, the increase in Western spending on health care and pension services reduces the investment opportunities of developed countries, which negatively affects their economic growth rates. In fact, we are talking about the fact that in a few decades, developed countries will simply not be able to adequately support the growing army of their own pensioners, whose share is already 17% of the population there, including in Germany and Italy-21% ¹⁵.

The gradual loss of economic positions by the West will be accompanied by an aggravation of the military-political situation in the world, the emergence of regional conflicts and zones of instability. The countries of the "golden billion", despite the weakening role in the world economy, retain in their hands the financial, political, military and informational levers of managing the world economy. All these resources will be actively used in the struggle to maintain the global leadership of developed countries. At the same time, all these far from noble goals will be covered up with slogans of the struggle for democracy and universal justice. These processes are exactly what we are seeing today in North Africa, the Middle East, Ukraine, Hong Kong and other parts of the world.

The second question that arises in connection with the transformation of the role of the demographic factor in world development is related to the time frame. When are the names-

but at what point in time does the" demographic bomb "turn into a"demographic dividend"?

Today, the leading roles in the global economy have been taken by large developing countries, which have mostly passed the stage of demographic transition, i.e., have significantly reduced the birth rate. According to our calculations, an average of 35-40 years pass from the beginning of the decline in the birth rate to the optimal ratio of working and non - working population.

The fact is that at the stage of demographic transition, the working - age population increases faster than the entire population as a whole, which means that such an indicator as the demographic load factor decreases, i.e. the ratio of the number of dependents (children under 15 years of age and the elderly over 60-65 years of age) and the working-age population. It is measured from zero to one. The lower this indicator is, the greater the proportion of citizens who are able to contribute to social production.

In addition to increasing the labor market, the reduction in this indicator contributes to the growth of domestic savings both in the country as a whole (due to the low proportion of pensioners) and in households (children are expensive, fewer children - more women are involved in the social work process), and it is these savings that serve as a source of economic growth. An analysis of the evolution of long series of this indicator in different countries and groups of countries allows us to conclude that certain states made an economic breakthrough during the period when this indicator was at the level of 0.4 - 0.5 and below.

This happened in France and England in the mid-nineteenth century, in the United States in the late nineteenth century, in Germany in the early nineteenth century, in Japan in the 1960s and 1970s, in South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore in the 1980s, and in China in the late 1990sin the 1990s, in India - in the 2000s. At the same time, economic growth accelerates precisely at the stage when the demographic burden factor is reduced by reducing the proportion of children under 15 who enter the working age. In the future, as the share of people of retirement age increases, this indicator begins to grow again. Today, due to the aging of the population in developed countries, it is approaching the level of 0.6, and in the future, if it is not possible to raise the birth rate, it will continue to grow, which will lead to a decrease in their role in the world economy.

Thus, the development of humanity in the coming decades will largely depend on the quantitative and qualitative growth of the population in developing countries.

If this statement is also true for Africa, then rapid demographic growth on the Black Continent in the context of globalization should serve as an impetus, at least, to accelerate economic development, and at most - to the economic rise of the continent as a whole. But this will happen around 2040-2050, when the demographic load factor in Africa will approach the optimal value.

In 2013, this indicator was 0.82 for Africa as a whole, 0.54 for North Africa, 0.88 for West Africa, 0.89 for East Africa, 0.92 for Central Africa, and 0.56 for South Africa ¹⁶. It is noteworthy that North and South Africa, which were the first countries to enter the second phase of the demographic transition, showed the highest economic growth rates at the end of the last century and at the beginning of this century.

AFRICA IN A NEW SYSTEM OF SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC COORDINATES

Today, Africa is at the stage of accumulating human potential. The rapid demographic growth in Africa is still a source of many problems, which are exported outside the continent in the context of globalization.

Africa is the poorest region in the world. Per capita PPP income was $3,010 in 2012, compared to $11,690 in the world as a whole and $35,800 in developed countries. 65% of the African population lives on $2 a day. 290 million Africans suffer from hunger ¹⁷.

At the same time, in Africa itself, there is a huge gap in such an indicator as GDP per capita between individual states. For example, in the small population of the oil-exporting countries - Equatorial Guinea and Gabon - GDP per NAM by PPP in 2013 reached $33.7 thousand and $19.2 thousand, respectively, and in the 70-million DRC-only $747. If all countries of the world are placed in descending order of income, then the last 20 positions in this list will be occupied by sub-Saharan Africa, starting with Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Uganda, where the PPP income per NAM does not exceed $1500 - 1700, to the world's poorest CAR, where the corresponding figure is only $60418.

The majority of people on the African continent (60%) live in rural areas. In sub-Saharan Africa, this figure is even higher at 63% ¹⁹. At the same time, despite the relatively low level of urbanization, the urban population of most African States is concentrated in several large cities, which greatly increases the possibility of social conflicts and revolutions.

Today, Africa accounts for 21% of the world's workforce growth. In the 1980s and 2000, the African labor force grew at an average annual rate of 2.6%. In the period from 2000 to 2012, this indicator slightly decreased and amounted to 2.3%. In absolute terms, the total number of 15-64-year-olds in the Russian Federation

in Africa, the population increased from 432 million to 570 million people between ²⁰⁰⁰ and 2012.20 At the same time, only 5-10% of all new jobs are created in the modern sector, and the vast majority of them are created in the informal sector and low - profit agriculture.²¹

Such a situation in the African labor market, when the demand for labor in the real sector of the economy is very low or absent at all, and the supply of labor is excessively high, indicates significant imbalances in the development of not only the market itself, but also the entire economy of the region as a whole, which is fraught with serious consequences.

The widening gap between the growth of the working-age population and the creation of new jobs greatly increases the real opportunities for providing jobs, food, advanced training, etc.In other words, the reproduction of the labor force on the African continent in quantitative terms far exceeds the existing opportunities for its effective use.

About 70% of the employed in Africa are classified as unprotected workers, i.e. they are family workers or work in the informal economy, i.e. they do not have any social guarantees.

The persistence of a very large share of unprotected employment, combined with slow productivity growth that is not able to provide an increase in the population's income, is reflected in such an indicator as the share of the "working poor". The situation in this area in sub-Saharan Africa is much worse than in all other regions. Between 2010 and 2012 alone, the number of "working poor" living on US $ 1 a day increased by an additional 2.9 million in Tropical Africa, while the number of people living on US $ 2 a day increased by 6.2 million.²²

Over 60% of Africa's employed population works in agriculture (compared to an average of 29% in North Africa). Employment rate for African youth (15-24 years) It is only 47.8%, and in North Africa it is even less -27%. This is partly due to the increased share of young people studying, but in some regions it is young people entering the labor market for the first time who find it most difficult to find a job.²³

It is high unemployment and social unrest among young people that have become the most important catalysts for the so-called "Arab Spring". In modern conditions, young people are becoming the main object of manipulation of public consciousness, because by their nature they are the most active, have a more pronounced protest potential and, at the same time, are naive and susceptible to propaganda. ²⁴ Most importantly, young people are involved in the information space (Internet, mobile phones, social networks, etc.). people were the main driving force behind the "Arab Spring", the Ukrainian and Hong Kong events. In the future, similar scenarios are possible in other African States, especially since the proportion of young people aged ^15-25 years exceeds 30-40% of the population there25.

AFRICAN HUMAN CAPITAL: CHALLENGES TO GROWTH

When we talk about the rapid quantitative increase in Africa's human potential, we should not forget about its quality. Compared to developed countries, it is characterized by relatively low viability parameters and a relatively low educational level. All this hinders its successful adaptation in the present and, moreover, the formation of future projects, environmental conservation and rational use of natural and financial resources.

The illiteracy rate among Africans, although it fell from 70% in 1960 to 38% in 2013, is still the highest in the world. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is home to 150 million people today. illiterate adults. The primary and secondary school - age population now has a 70% enrolment rate in North Africa, compared to just 31% in SSA. Only 5% of the population of the SSA and 22% of the population of the North. Children under the age of 25 are students of higher educational institutions. The average number of years of study in Africa is also the lowest in the world (5.4 years), compared to 16 years in Japan and 20 years in Europe and the United States. Most schools in Tropical Africa have more than 50 students per teacher. At the same time, the system of vocational education is practically not developed, and the proportion of students studying natural science and technical disciplines in higher education is small. The number of scientists per 1 million inhabitants does not exceed 108 in Africa, compared to 5,000 in developed countries.²⁶

The health status of Africans also leaves much to be desired. AIDS continues to be the leading cause of death in Africa, where 67% of all people living with HIV live. In 2013, there were 25 million people diagnosed with AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. More than 1 million Africans die from AIDS every year. The number of African children with HIV reaches almost 2 million. Other infectious diseases, especially tuberculosis and malaria, also pose a serious threat to the population of Africa. About 4 million Africans suffer from tuberculosis, and more than ⁹⁰% of malaria deaths worldwide (1 million) also occur in Africa27.

At the same time, the health infrastructure in Africa is extremely poorly developed. There are, on average, only 3 doctors per 10,000 inhabitants, while in 12 African countries (Benin, Burundi, Chad, Ethiopia, Liberia, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Tanzania, Somalia, Sierra Leone, Togo), 1 doctor-per person.

20-30 thousand inhabitants. Only 5 countries (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and the Seychelles) had a global average of 14 doctors per 10,000 inhabitants.

The provision of hospital beds remains low (11 per 10 thousand inhabitants). The highest rate in the 2010s was in the African continent in such countries as Seychelles (58), Libya (37), Namibia (34), Sao Tome and Principe (33), Mauritius (32), Zimbabwe (31) and South Africa (29), and the highest in the world. low - in Benin, DRC and Senegal, where there was only 1 hospital bed per 10 thousand inhabitants. Health expenditures in Africa do not exceed 5.5% of GDP (in the EU-8.4%, in the US-12.8%, in the Russian Federation-5.4%) ²⁸.

Even the small part of the African labor force that meets the requirements of modern production in terms of its characteristics, i.e. it is a carrier of modern knowledge and is capable of innovation, is mainly used either outside of Africa - in developed countries, where it receives decent remuneration for its work, or in areas of the African economy that do not correspond to the original specialization.

The inability to find work in their own country encourages the migration of African labor. Already, 36 million migrants out of the world's 200 million are Africans. International labor migration is one of the main channels for connecting Africa to the global economy. African remittances reached $45 billion in 2013, accounting for about one-sixth of all official global money transfers.

Along with labor migration, the volume of illegal migration from African countries is growing. According to experts, there are 4-5 million illegal migrants from Africa in Europe alone. Illegal migration is closely linked to criminal activities, such as human trafficking, drug trafficking, and smuggling, and informal money transfer channels are often used to finance terrorist activities.²⁹

The rapid growth of the African population in the context of the economic backwardness of most African States, their social instability, and political instability will directly affect the development of the world economy. In the context of globalization, the world community will simply not be able to isolate itself from African problems, which are largely stimulated by the accelerated growth of the African population, since they are related to the economic, political and social security of the world as a whole.

But it would be wrong to view the role of Africa's population in the world economy of the twenty-first century only in a negative way. In 30 years, Africa will account for more than 90% of the world's population growth and 65% of the world's workforce growth, which means that the Black continent will largely form the global structure of production and consumption.

The quality of human capital in Africa is slowly but steadily increasing, the number of infectious diseases is decreasing, the level of education is increasing, and the involvement of women in the labor and educational process is increasing, including through the use of the Internet. According to our calculations, the African labor market will reach optimal quantitative and qualitative indicators by about 2040-2050.

Time will tell whether the next period of time will be a period of "African economic boom".

¹ http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/index.jhtml

² www.imf.org

³ Ibidem.

⁴ 2013 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Wash. 2013. P. 7 - 10.

^{Abramova I. O.} 5 Populace of Africa in the Global Economy, Moscow, 2010, p. 110. (Abramova I. O. 2010. Naselenie Afriki v novoi globalnoi ekonomike. M.) (in Russian)

⁶ 2013 World Population Data Sheet... P. 7.

^{7. Abramova I. O.} Developing countries in the world economy of the XXI century: New demographic determinants / / Asia and Africa Today. 2011, N 6. pp. 24-29. (Abramova I. O. 2011. Razvivayushchiesya strany v mirovoi ekonomike XXI veka: novye demograficheskie determinanty // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. N 6) (in Russian)

⁸ Calculated by us from: World Population Prospects. UN., N.Y. 2006-2012.

⁹ http://russian.people.com.en/31521/8568071.html

¹⁰ Calculated by us from: 2013 World Population Data Sheet.., p. 6-7.

¹¹ http://www.ilo.org/global/research/global-reports/world-of-work/2014/WCMS_243961/lang-e n/index.htm

¹² http://www.ilo.org/global/research/global-reports/global-employmenttrends/2014/WCMS_23 3953/lang-en/index.htm

¹³ http://www.ilo.org/global/research/global-reports/world-of-work/2014/WCMS_243961/lang-e n/index.htm

¹⁴ 2013 World Population Data Sheet.., p. 7.

¹⁵ Ibid., p. 11.

¹⁶ Calculated by us from: 2013 World Population Data Sheet.., p. 7-8.

¹⁷ Ibid., p. 13.

¹⁸ http://documents.vsemirnyjbank.org/curated/ru/2013/10/ I8382066/world-development-report-2014-risk-opportunity-managing-risk-development-over view

¹⁹ 2013 World Population Data Sheet.., p. 7.

²⁰ http://www.ilo.org/global/rescarch/global-reports/global-em-ployment trends/2014/WCMS_233953/lang-en/index.htm

²¹ Decent Work for Africa's Development. ILO. Geneva, 2008. P. 9.

²² http://www.ilo.org/global/research/global-reports/global-em-ploymenttrends/2014/WCMS_23 3953/lang-en/index.htm

²³ http://www.ilo.org/global/research/global-reports/global-em-ploymenttrends/2014/WCMS_23 3953/lang-en/index.htm

^{Fituni L. L.} 24 Middle East: technologies of protest potential management / / Asia and Africa today. 2011, N 12. pp. 8-9. (Fituni L. L. 2011. Blizhniy Vostok: tekhnologii upravleniya protestnym potentsialom // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. N 12) (in Russian)

^{Abramova I. O.} 25 The new role of Africa in the world economy of the XXI century. М, 2013. С. 236 - 237. (Abramova I.O. 2013. Novaya rol Afriki v mirovoi ekonomike XXI veka. M.) (in Russian)

²⁶ Ibid., p. 290.

²⁷ Human Development Report 2014. Geneva, 2014. P. 112.

²⁸ World Health Statistics. 2013. Geneva, pp. 94-112.

^{Abramova I. O., Bessonov S. A.} 29 "Arab Spring" and cross-border migration / / Asia and Africa Today. 2012. N 10. С. 12. (Abramova I.O., Bessonov S.A. 2012. "Arabskaya vesna" i transgranichnaya migratsiya // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. N 10) (in Russian)

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