On April 20, 2011, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted the All-Russian scientific conference "Russia's Interests and Positions in Asia and Africa at the Beginning of the XXI Century", organized by the Regional Security and International Relations Sector. The conference was attended by researchers and teachers of higher educational institutions in Moscow and other cities of the Russian Federation. More than 20 people made presentations. A wide range of topical issues related to Russia's policy towards a number of key Asian and African countries were discussed.
Opening the conference, A. M. Khazanov, Head of the Regional Security and International Relations Sector of the Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, defined the objectives of the conference: to try to find out what are the real national interests, goals and priorities of Russia in the East that correspond to the interests of the whole society; how our interests interact with the interests of other states in Asia and Africa; what are Russia's current positions in these areas? A. M. Khazanov noted: "We have not yet developed the doctrine of Russia's eastern policy in essence. An important task facing international orientalists is to help the Russian leadership develop such a doctrine. I hope that the conference will contribute to the solution of this important state task."
Deputy Director of the Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences V. Ya. Belokrenitsky emphasized the importance and relevance of the problems discussed at the conference. He noted that the Muslim world is now experiencing a period of rapid revolutionary transformation, and this raises a number of new complex issues for Russian foreign policy.
In his report "Russia's Interests in the Eastern countries and the World Food Problem", A.V. Akimov (IB RAS) spoke about Russia's participation in international projects aimed at improving food security and solving the world food problem. He noted that in addition to participating in multilateral international projects, Russia has taken initiatives to develop international cooperation in solving the food problem. In early June 2009, the first world Grain Forum was held in St. Petersburg. A.V. Akimov made the following conclusion: "Unlike oil and gas exports, which are non-renewable natural resources, agricultural products are produced on the basis of using renewable natural resources, which are available in Russia in abundance, and modern scientific and technological progress in the agro-industrial sector opens up prospects for turning this sector of the economy into a high-tech branch of the economy."
A. L. Khlebnikov (Lobachevsky Nizhny Novgorod State University) in his report "The role of soft power in the strategy and tactics of Russia's Middle East Policy" identified three main directions of Russia's Middle East policy at the beginning of the XXI century: activation of cooperation in the military-technical sphere; emphasis on protecting the interests of Russian companies (primarily in the fuel and energy sector) on the BV market; strengthening its economic and cultural presence in Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, and Egypt. The speaker stressed that, despite the successful cooperation of Russia with
in the field of military-industrial complex and fuel and energy complex, there are practically no mechanisms of public diplomacy. We are significantly inferior to European states and China in this area, which will inevitably lead to a weakening of our positions in other areas. There is a growing need to develop a public diplomacy strategy for Russia. We need a unified approach designed to last for many years, which should be based on the cultural and historical component.
V. V. Evseev (Center for Socio-Political Studies). research) in the report " Russian-Egyptian military-technical cooperation: state and prospects" analyzed the results of long-term cooperation between the Russian Federation and Egypt in the military-technical sphere. The speaker noted that Egypt currently has a significant amount of Soviet military equipment. But Egypt's current financial and economic situation remains extremely difficult. Mass protests that took place in January-February 2011 not only caused economic damage to the country, but also sharply reduced the revenue from tourism. In February, in the vicinity of the city of El-Arish, as a result of a terrorist attack, the operation of the pipeline, which annually delivered 1.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Israel's Ashkelon, was stopped for a long time. Strikes are still ongoing in the country. Under these conditions, the process of technical re-equipment of the armed forces is possible only at the expense of gratuitous assistance from the United States (until recently, it was 1.5 billion dollars a year). This greatly hinders both the development of its own military production and the diversification of Egypt's military-technical ties with foreign countries.
The speaker made the following conclusion: "The current level of Russian-Egyptian military-technical cooperation is rather low due to the extremely limited financial resources and the transition of the Armed Forces to Western models of weapons and military equipment. In fact, it is limited to the supply of spare parts, participation in the modernization of certain types of weapons and training of Egyptians in Russian military educational institutions on a commercial basis. Nevertheless, there are still some opportunities for the purchase or licensed production of Russian air defense systems in Egypt. Apparently, the organization of joint ventures in this area is more realistic, which implies the transfer of some military technologies."
In his report "Russian-Jordanian Relations: Achievements, Problems, and Prospects", Alexander Demchenko (Institute of Strategic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences) analyzed trade and economic ties, military-technical cooperation, and humanitarian cooperation between Russia and Jordan. He pointed out some difficulties in economic cooperation, as evidenced by the fact that the peak of contracts, projects, and new ideas occurred in 2005-2007. Trade and economic relations are built mainly on the basis of military-technical cooperation. Implementation of agreements in this area is slow due to problems in the Russian military-industrial complex, the need for large financial investments in the creation of joint ventures, as well as purchases of military equipment by Jordan on Russian loans.
In her report "The role of North and South Sudan as strategically important economic centers in the Arab and African world and Russia's Interests", G. I. Smirnova (Institute of Political Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences) emphasized the favorable economic and geographical position of Sudan and its richness in natural and human resources. After the country was divided into two States on January 9, 2011, most of the oil fields remained in the south, and the pipeline system runs mainly through the territory of Northern Sudan to the port on the Red Sea coast. Great opportunities are opening up for Russia now. According to the speaker, Russia could provide significant assistance to North Sudan in conducting geological exploration, developing the manufacturing industry, the agricultural complex, and carrying out irrigation and land reclamation works. In return, it could receive high-quality cotton for its textile industry, as well as other agricultural products from traditional Sudanese exports. The main areas of cooperation with South Sudan may include: geological exploration, transport development, construction, agriculture, food industry, and personnel training.
A. S. Matveev (Lobachevsky Nizhny Novgorod State University) in his report "The policy of the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran in relation to the Transcaucasian States: common interests and different approaches" conducted a comparative historical analysis of the policy of the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran in relation to Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The speaker concluded that Iran is pursuing a cultural, religious and ideological policy in Transcaucasia in order to create a positive image of Iran. According to the speaker, Russia needs to develop economic cooperation with the countries of Transcaucasia. Currently, cooperation with the countries of the region is carried out at the following stages:-
at the minimum level. The creation of a single customs space could contribute to its development. However, not all States in the region are ready for this. In addition, the role of local clans associated with government circles is very important, which makes the opportunities for Russian business development in the region much worse than for the development of Armenian and Azerbaijani businesses in Russia.
Sergey Rybalko (State University-Higher School of Economics) in his report "Assessment of the evolution of Turkey's role in the natural gas market from the point of view of Russia's economic interests" showed that Turkey is currently making great efforts to qualitatively change its role in the international natural gas market - from a consumer to a transit country. even the gas supplier. The Nabucco project involves the construction of a gas pipeline to deliver gas through Turkey to Europe. The Blue Stream 2 project - the second line of the pipeline under the Black Sea - will allow Turkey to increase gas exports to Europe. As the speaker noted, Turkey's policy on the international natural gas market affects Russia's interests. By solving its own geopolitical and economic problems in the international energy arena, Turkey naturally falls into the zone of Russia's interests as a key supplier of natural gas to Europe.
R. R. Sikoev (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "The Afghan vector in Russia's foreign Policy" gave a brief historical digression of relations between Russia and Afghanistan since 1764, when Bogdan Aslanov was sent to Afghanistan by order of Catherine II, who, however, failed to establish diplomatic relations. Speaking about today, the speaker said: "The central question that concerns many both inside and outside the country is: what will happen in Afghanistan in 2014 after the withdrawal of the main forces of the international coalition?" The speaker expressed the opinion that even if events develop according to the worst-case scenario (the Taliban defeat government forces and capture Kabul), the internecine war will not end, but will only move into another, longer and bloodier round of escalation of hostilities.
E. Y. Arapova (MGIMO University) In her report "Russia's Strategic Interests in the context of Joining the East Asian Summit", the Russian Foreign Ministry stressed that as a result of deepening cooperation with East Asian countries, Russia expects a significant increase in trade turnover and investment, contributing to the development of infrastructure and the transition to an innovative model of development of the Russian economy. The report highlighted and analyzed priority areas of Russia's economic cooperation with China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, India, and the ASEAN countries. The speaker noted three strategically important bases for developing cooperation between Russia and East Asian countries: energy, transport and high technologies.
V. P. Kurbatov (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "China: a Rapid Offensive in All directions" analyzed the achievements of the People's Republic of China during the 11th five-year plan (2006-2010). To overcome the crisis, an additional $ 585 billion was invested in the economy. The Chinese government managed to maintain the confidence of foreign investors, and the total volume of foreign investment in 2010 reached $ 105.74 billion. In Russia in the same year, it amounted to $ 14 billion. dol. The speaker stated that Russia has become one of the most important suppliers of energy resources to China. On January 1, 2011, an oil pipeline was launched, through which 42 thousand tons of oil are delivered to China every day. Under the 20-year agreement, China will receive 15 million tons of oil per year, i.e. China will receive 300 million tons. In addition, China is interested in guaranteed coal supplies from Russia in the amount of 15 to 20 million tons annually. Given that the volume of imports of industrial products from Russia is gradually falling in bilateral Russian-Chinese trade, the speaker said, it is not difficult to conclude that Russia is gradually turning into a fuel and raw materials appendage of the PRC. This will be especially noticeable after China slows down the construction of its nuclear power plants.
Yu. V. Chudodeev (Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "Globalization processes and prospects of partnership between Russia and China in the Asia-Pacific region" considered the problems that Russia and China face in the era of globalization. According to the speaker, " the gap in economic power and the change of roles in the Russian-Chinese exchange of new and high-tech products hurts our self-esteem and is a definite challenge to Russia. The natural Russian response to this serious challenge can and should be our development-both economic and scientific and technical." After analyzing a number of difficulties that exist in relations between the two countries, the speaker concludes that globalization opens up significant opportunities
for Russian-Chinese cooperation. These are plans to create a grandiose energy and transcontinental bridge from Russia to Japan, China, North and South Korea, and in the future to Southeast Asia. The realization of Russia's obvious advantages - the availability of energy resources, a vast territory, and the ability to perform effective transit functions - allows it to firmly enter the system of economic relations in the Asia-Pacific region on a mutually beneficial basis.
Dmitry Mileev (IB RAS) in his report "The Russian Factor in relations between Japan and Europe" convincingly showed that although there are problems in Russian-Japanese relations (the issue of Japan's territorial claims to the Southern Kuril Islands), this cannot be an obstacle to the development of a dialogue, provided that both participants are interested in the subject of discussion. According to the speaker, a compromise based on concessions and the transfer of the Southern Kuril Islands to Japan does not meet the interests of the Russian Federation, as it worsens our strategic positions in the region, damages the country's economy and international prestige, opens the way to a reassessment of the results of World War II and the role of the USSR in it, and creates
N. K. Semenova (IB RAS) in her report "Formation of the Asian Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation in the SCO zone" emphasized that in the context of globalization, fuel and energy issues are becoming part of international relations as a fundamental problem of national security. According to the speaker, the SCO can become an international mechanism for coordinating mutually beneficial use of energy resources in the future. A unique feature of the SCO is the absence of third countries on the way to transport energy resources. Taking into account the observer countries, we can talk about the interaction of the" axis " of producers (Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iran) and the "axis" of energy consumers (China, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, India, Pakistan, Mongolia). This makes the SCO a self-sufficient energy system, both nationally and globally.
A.V. Karimulpina (State University-Higher School of Economics) in her report "Trade and Economic cooperation between Russia and Singapore: problems and prospects" noted that Russia's economic presence in Singapore, however, as in Southeast Asia as a whole, is still insignificant, but about the intensification of foreign economic relations between the two countries. The two countries are witnessing the actively developing organizational framework for such cooperation. For example, the Russian-Singapore Business Council was established in 2009. According to the speaker, the most relevant issue for the Russian side is scientific and technological cooperation with Singapore. The experience of this country in building a comprehensive innovation system that includes organizational and physical infrastructure, training of personnel, support for innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, developed venture financing, established mechanisms for commercialization of R & D, and developed legislation in the field of intellectual property could be very useful for Russia.
E. N. Korendyasov (Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "Russia's interests and positions in Africa at the beginning of the XXI century" analyzed the main problems and difficulties that arise in the development of cooperation between the Russian Federation and African countries. For Russia, the main obstacle is limited material and financial resources, underestimation of the real potential of Russian-African cooperation, the lack of a clear state program for Russia's participation in promoting African development; for Africans, concern about maintaining priority relations with Western economies, uncertainty about the professionalism and reliability of young Russian businesses. According to the speaker, the practice of Russian-African relations in the period 2000-2010 confirms the contradictory nature of their evolution. On the one hand, there is an expansion of interaction and partnership. On the other hand, the scale and depth of relations lag behind the available opportunities; there is a lack of sufficient interest in the development of relations and their attractiveness to the political and entrepreneurial structures of both sides.
Yu. S. Skubko (Institute of Africa), in a report on Russia's economic relations with South Africa, noted that Russia's serious penetration into the economy of the continent's most developed country is not observed today. Both South Africa and Russia have huge coal reserves for hundreds of years, there is practically no oil in South Africa, and our production will begin to decline in the coming years. In South Africa, SASOL Corporation has developed and successfully operates a technology for processing coal into liquid fuel and coal gasification. At current world prices, this process is already cost-effective. SASOL builds or plans to build its own factories even in Uzbekistan.
T. N. Deitch (Institute of African Studies) considered Russia's capabilities in Africa in the light of China's "offensive" in the continent's countries. She analyzed the current positions of China and Russia in Africa. "Although Russia's diplomacy in Africa has intensified in recent years," she said, " comparing it in this area with China is not in our favor. The Chinese leadership, including President Hu Jintao, regularly visits African countries. Thus, the Foreign Minister traditionally begins the year with a visit to the continent: in February 2011, he visited Zimbabwe, Togo, Ghana and Chad." According to T. N. Deitch, the priority countries for Russia's interests in Africa are South Africa, Nigeria, and Angola. It is significant that there are many graduates of our universities in Africa who hold high government positions. Africans show interest in developing relations with Russia. Given the traditional friendly ties, a decisive breakthrough in expanding mutually beneficial cooperation is possible, and only the combined efforts of the state and business are needed.
N. N. Tsvetkova (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in her report "Potential areas of application of Russian investments in Africa: The Republic of Cape Verde" noted that the opportunities for cooperation between Russia and African countries are largely not realized. Cooperation with African countries can become mutually beneficial, expand sales markets and attract capital for Russian companies.
A. A. Arkhangelskaya (Institute of Africa) in her report "Russia-South Africa in the BRICS format" analyzed the current state of relations between Russia and South Africa. There is a clear imbalance between the political and economic relations of both countries. A fairly high level of political interaction has been maintained since the Soviet Union supported the struggle of the black population against the apartheid regime. But from the point of view of developing trade and economic cooperation between Russia and South Africa, the first ten years after the black majority government came to power can be considered a lost decade.
The situation began to change after Vladimir Putin's visit to South Africa in 2006, when the Treaty of Friendship and Partnership was signed. On November 12, 2010, at the G20 summit in Seoul, South Africa expressed its desire to join the BRIC. December 21, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev Medvedev and Indian Prime Minister M Mingh adopted a joint statement in which they approved the idea of South Africa joining the BRIC, and in April 2011 it was adopted. As the speaker noted, South Africa is characterized by low economic indicators compared to other BRICS countries. However, Russian economists also consider the presence of the Russian Federation in this group of developing countries artificial, since Russia does not have a surplus of labor, which largely ensures the BRICS high economic growth rates.
In general, the conference "Russia's Interests and Positions in Asia and Africa at the beginning of the XXI century" should be considered fruitful. It analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of Russia's foreign policy in the East, as well as our successes and failures, and made a number of original ideas and recommendations for strengthening Russia's position in Asia and Africa.
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