N. A. ZHERLITSYNA

Candidate of Historical Sciences

Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences, RUDN University

Keywords: Maghreb, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Islamic extremism, terrorist threat, security problems

Over the past few years, new challenges and threats in North Africa have attracted the attention of the international community. A series of Arab revolutions, socio-political upheavals, political chaos, attacks of international terrorism and humanitarian crises related to illegal migration threaten the unity, territorial integrity and independence of a number of States in the region. North Africa is at the peak of instability and conflict.

With political instability in Arab countries, social tensions are growing. In the face of rising unemployment and high expectations of the population, the authorities need to stabilize the economy and implement reforms that can ensure the creation of new jobs and comprehensive growth in the future. Government spending has increased due to additional spending on food and energy subsidies, while political unrest has hit much-needed private investment, and government reserves have shrunk.

CHALLENGES AND THREATS

The Maghreb countries found themselves in a difficult situation. Oil importers - Morocco, Tunisia-faced double pressure: the costs of importing energy and food are combined with the global economic downturn. In Algeria, whose economy is heavily tied to oil and gas, which account for the lion's share of exports, a significant reduction in income could lead to an acute crisis and undermine the oil-for-public-peace system. The crisis is the most favorable ground for the emergence and growth of radicalism.

The expansion of hotbeds of tension, in particular in Libya and the Sahel, creates favorable conditions for the expansion of the activities of terrorist organizations. The Libyan crisis has disrupted the regional balance in North Africa, exposing conflict situations that were previously latent and ensuring virtually uncontrolled penetration of weapons across borders. The armed conflict in Libya has become one of the main sources of extremism in Africa. The consequences of this conflict can have a dangerous impact on the internal situation in the Maghreb and sub-Saharan Africa, where poverty and social problems create the conditions for the emergence and growth of radical sentiments.

Libya is becoming a new magnet for the jihadists who are gradually being driven out of Syria. The Islamic State (IS) is considering moving its headquarters to this country, where there are already from 5 to 6 thousand fighters of this organization, ¹. The evidence points to a radical change in IS tactics: the extremists gained a foothold on the Mediterranean coast, and then began advancing into the central regions of the country in order to seize oil-producing infrastructure.

If this plan goes through, IG will gain access to Millie-

ard revenues from the sale of oil. This is a strategic decision of the IG, which is to create in Libya the same kind of" stronghold " as in Syria in the province of Raqqa. Another significant fact: members of terrorist cells are now trained in training camps in Libya, and not in camps in Syria or Iraq, as was the case before.

After the influx of fighters from different parts of the world, the IS has become a major terrorist organization of a multinational nature: one after another, various extremist groups operating in Africa swear allegiance to the IS. Terrorists from armed groups operating in the Maghreb region are about to announce the creation of an Islamic "caliphate" based on IS cells in North Africa.

The new leader of the Islamic State in Libya, Abdel Baqer Al-Najdi, issued threats against the governments of the Maghreb countries, calling them " lackeys of the old colonialism." Another terrorist named Al-Harib al-Jazairi called on Muslims in the Maghreb to "stand up to the military and the tyrants" who rule them.²

THE BURDEN OF A REGIONAL LEADER

The wave of the "Arab Spring" bypassed Algeria: the Algerian military, which has many years of experience in the armed struggle against terrorism, was able to keep the situation under control. The Algerian army is traditionally strong, armed with modern equipment and significant funding. But even today, the country remains at the epicenter of the fight against terrorism: on the eastern border with Tunisia, destabilized by the events of the "Arab Spring", militants of the radical Islamist group Ansar al-Sharia are operating, in the south-east in neighboring Libya, the chaos of civil war reigns, allowing Islamist radical groups to rampage uncontrollably. On the southern borders of Algeria in neighboring Mali, torn apart by internal conflicts, militants of the Ansar al-Din and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) groups have become more active.

Armed attacks by Islamists are taking place in various regions of Algeria. Summer 2015 ISIS has released several videos in which it has officially declared war on Algeria. In addition, there is a group such as Jund al-Khalifa in the country, which has already been marked by several serious attacks: it used to be part of Al-Qaeda, but now it has declared its commitment to the IS. There are also several groups in the Tell Atlas Mountains that have also pledged allegiance to the Caliphate. It is not possible to eliminate them, moreover, in mountainous areas, the local population provides them with assistance.

Currently, the Algerian security authorities have focused their efforts on neutralizing threats from both armed groups operating inside the country and extremist movements that have established bases in the vast African Sahel and Sahara. In this situation, it was decided to strengthen the border group-a new military district was formed on the border of Algeria and Libya, helicopter units and rapid reaction forces were deployed there. The border with Tunisia has been strengthened: weapons shipments for militants break through from there - they are not always intercepted. It was decided to deploy an additional 25 thousand military personnel on this border, and thermal cameras were installed at 60 checkpoints. In addition, it is planned to create three new military zones, which will allow the Algerian military to ensure control in all territories adjacent to the six neighboring states. It is planned to spend more than $20 billion over several years to strengthen security.³

Recently, the general system of travel through Algeria has been sharply tightened. Due to the fact that Moroccans are actively joining the ranks of ISIS in Libya, in February 2016 Algeria banned transit flights from the country to Benghazi. The Algerian government army and security forces managed to eliminate 157 terrorists in 2015, including 10 group leaders, including one of the leaders of the Islamic State in Algeria, Khaled Abu Suleiman. These results show, as stated by the country's Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, R. Lamamra, that "the effectiveness of the security forces and the army of Algeria in eliminating terrorist cells" ⁴.

Compared to other countries in the region, the phenomenon of youth recruitment by terrorist organizations is less common in Algeria. This was achieved, in particular, due to the fact that the Ministry of Defense has created a mechanism for the exchange of information between organizations involved in the fight against terrorism. Since the recruitment of young people takes place mainly through social media and poses a danger to the entire society, Algeria has recently strengthened its online monitoring system. Proposals were put forward to amend the Code of Criminal Procedure, which would enable the relevant authorities to be even more effective in combating online recruitment of young people. As a result, the number of young Algerians who have joined terrorist organizations abroad does not exceed two hundred.

The representative of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Algeria, M. Talbi, spoke about an effective strategy to combat terrorism on the national radio. "As for the collection of funds in mosques, where it is possible to collect quite large amounts ...there is a need to monitor the use of these funds, "Talbi said, assuring that this issue is"under control". He stressed that the Algerian authorities had given mosques "strict instructions on how to collect funds." ⁵

In addition to military efforts, the Algerian authorities have recently resorted to diplomatic levers. The Algerian leadership sees its country as the dominant state in the Maghreb and considers the Sahel region as a zone of its strategic interests. Strengthening the country's leading position here in every possible way is one of the main priorities of Algeria's foreign policy.

The official position is as follows: of all the countries in the region, only Algeria is now able to assume leadership and use its influence to stabilize the situation, primarily in Libya. Algeria actively mediates between the warring Libyan parties, participates in international efforts to resolve the Libyan crisis, supports the establishment of a dialogue between all parties to the conflict, with the exception of terrorists, and supported the idea of creating a government of national unity. At the same time, the country's leadership does not accept foreign military intervention in Libya and does not want to participate in intervention in a neighboring country in order to "clean up" it from radical Islamists. Algeria strongly opposed the NATO bombing campaign in Libya in 2011 and is now doing everything possible to prevent external intervention in Libya, noting that this will only worsen the situation.

MOROCCO-A MODEL OF STABILITY?

There is an opinion that Morocco is a model of stability in a conflict-torn region. But if you open the news feed with the tag "Morocco", it becomes obvious: the authorities repeatedly report on the arrests of people and entire groups suspected of terrorist activities. While in 2003 terrorism cases in the Rabat court accounted for 7% of the total number of cases considered, in 2015 this figure increased to 21%^.6 Morocco and Tunisia are major suppliers of fighters to the Islamic State and, accordingly, the largest African recruitment centers for this terrorist organization.

In September 2014, the US State Department released a list of members of the anti - IS coalition-Morocco was the only Maghreb country mentioned in it. Although the Kingdom's Foreign Minister, S. Mezouar, said that Morocco's participation in this fight will be limited to the intelligence component, the country faced the risk of terrorist retaliation on its territory.

The international community is particularly concerned about the attempts of the Islamic State terrorist organization to gain a foothold in Morocco. The radicals use the Kingdom's geographical proximity to Europe to draw Europe into jihad in one form or another.

Moroccan intelligence agencies claim that the Jund al-Khalifa terrorist group, linked to the Islamic State and operating in Algeria, is taking active steps to spread its influence in the country. Members of the group planned to carry out a series of terrorist attacks in Morocco and Spain, including against Europeans. The group's weapons were smuggled out of the Melilla enclave. Spanish and Moroccan intelligence agencies are working together to disrupt the smuggling network.

Members of terrorist groups are recruiting new fighters for the war in Syria, Iraq and Libya. The head of the Central Bureau of Judicial Investigations of Morocco, M. Hyam, reported that 1,354 Moroccans have joined IS, of which 156 have already returned to Morocco. 286 Moroccans were killed in Syria and Iraq, and 185 Moroccan women and 135 children joined the terrorists.⁷

The Sidi Moumen slum on the outskirts of Casablanca is a typical breeding ground for violent extremists, including suicide bombers. The radicalization of a certain segment of Moroccan society is a natural result of unresolved social problems: poverty, social inequality, illiteracy and youth unemployment.

Economic growth in Morocco declined by an average of 3.7% between 2011 and 2014. Unemployment is stable at 9-10%⁸. Morocco will be able to resist the threat of extremism only if it achieves socio-economic stability, and for this it will have to switch to a modern economy focused on industrial production.

The Moroccan experience of repelling terrorist threats is currently one of the most effective in the Arab world. At the end of 2014, the Moroccan Government announced a new security policy, an important part of which was Operation Hadar (Vigilance), aimed at combating the terrorist threat. As part of this campaign, the Moroccan Government has passed a law that makes it a crime to join or attempt to join terrorist groups abroad. Terrorists are usually sentenced to

5-15 years of imprisonment, as well as to large fines from 50 thousand rubles. up to 500 thousand dirhams ($5 thousand and $50 thousand, respectively). Border control is being strengthened, especially with regard to jihadists returning from hot spots.

In March 2015, a new security agency was created to combat various types of crime and terrorism - the Central Bureau of Judicial Investigations (BCIJ), which reports to the Main Directorate for Control over the National Territory - one of the key intelligence services of the kingdom. This structure is already called the "Moroccan FBI".

Thanks to the preventive measures taken, Morocco's security forces have managed to neutralize 30 extremist cells and networks for recruiting Islamists since 2013. In an interview with the Moroccan Minister of Communications, M. Al-Halfi, it is reported that the country's security services have eliminated about 140 terrorist cells from 2002 to the present. According to the Minister, during this period, it was possible to arrest approximately 2.2 thousand suspects of involvement in terrorist activities9. Emphasizing the special role of the security forces, King Mohammed VI of Morocco increased the average salary of Moroccan police officers from 250 to 500 dirhams per month.

Morocco is one of the key allies of European countries in the fight against the spread of terrorism in Europe. Thanks to the cooperation of Moroccan, French and Spanish intelligence services, one of the alleged masterminds of the terrorist attacks of November 13, 2015 in Paris, Abdelhamid Abaaoud, was detained, and a network of terrorist cells in the cities of Nador and Ceuta was eliminated.

"Thanks to the data we provided, Spain, Italy, France, Belgium and the Netherlands were able to thwart the planned terrorist attacks," A. Hiyam, director of BCIJ¹⁰, said in a recent interview. Given that 90% of Belgian citizens traveling to war zones in Syria and Iraq are from Morocco, cooperation between the security agencies of these two countries has recently significantly strengthened. Moreover, it is Morocco that acts as a "senior partner" who can share unique experience in the field of information and telecommunications, as well as in matters of identification and fingerprinting.¹¹

The success of the Moroccan approach to combating terrorism is largely due to the fact that the measures taken are integrated. They are aimed at both forceful opposition to jihadism and humanitarian actions: encouraging moderate religious views, developing a system of traditional Muslim education, rehabilitating and integrating repentant radicals.

"We admire the efforts of the Moroccan authorities to develop the Islamic education system: an example of this is the creation of the King Mohammed VI Institute for Training Imams, which opened in the spring of 2015. The work of Moroccans with their diaspora abroad is also of great importance," said I. O. Abramova, Director of the Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who participated in the work International Security Forum in Marrakech 12-13 February 2016 ¹²

A special role in this struggle is assigned to the religious authorities of the kingdom. Thus, after the terrorist attacks in Paris in November 2015, the Supreme Council of Ulema of Morocco issued a fatwa stating that " Islam does not allow any person or group of persons to declare jihad at will... Jihad is a force that Muslims can only resort to when absolutely necessary, when they have been attacked by their enemies and all peaceful means have been unsuccessful." There are also two verses from the Qur'an: "Do not attack, God does not love those who attack" and " Whoever kills a person not for killing or spreading wickedness in the land, it is as if he killed all people."

TUNISIA-THE "SICK MAN" OF THE MAGHREB

The Tunisian Republic celebrated the fifth anniversary of the Jasmine Revolution with a week of protests under the slogans for improving living conditions and creating new jobs. The protesters noted the lack of economic progress, continued high unemployment and demanded that the authorities make decisions, in particular in depressed areas. Falling exports and investment, purchasing power, galloping inflation and the collapse of tourism, an important sector of the Tunisian economy, are undermining the population's hopes for rapid change.

According to official data, the unemployment rate in Tunisia in 2015 it made up 15.4%, while 31.2% of the unemployed population are university graduates. The lack of opportunities to find a decent job, a sense of isolation from society, and as a result, the emergence of social despair, according to experts, push the young population of the country to join terrorist groups fighting in Syria, Iraq and Libya.

* The Jasmine Revolution-Tunisian unrest (2010-2011) - a wave of nationwide discontent with the policies of Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, which led to his resignation on January 14, 2011 and the beginning of the revolutionary events in the Arab world known as the" Arab Spring " (approx. author's note).

According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, at the moment, from 3 to 6 thousand Tunisian citizens are fighting on the side of terrorists in war zones. The country's President, Beji Caid Es-Sebsi, said that there are many IS militant camps within a 70 km radius of the Tunisian border, where local youth are trained.¹³

Thus, despite the international community's interpretation of the results of the parliamentary and presidential elections in late 2013 as Tunisia's choice in favor of democratic development, the situation in Tunisia remains very fragile. Internal challenges and unresolved problems are complemented by new external threats to the country's security.

The Tunisian Republic is one of the first countries to experience a new and tougher onslaught of extremism: it was caught in the grip of radical Islamist groups. Tunisia has a nearly 500-kilometer border with Libya, whose territory has become a haven for extremists, including IS militants, amid the ongoing powerlessness and chaos. In 2015, terrorist attacks in Tunisia killed a total of 72 people, including 59 foreign tourists and 13 security agents. In the face of a severe crisis, the country is forced to allocate 20% of its 2016 budget expenditures to security and defense ¹⁴.

The March 7, 2016 attack by IS militants on Ben Gardan, a town bordering Libya in southeastern Tunisia that is home to 80,000 people, expanded the area of armed conflict that has so far been confined to the other side of the border. As a result of the terrorist attack on the border posts and barracks of the National Guard, 7 civilians and 13 Tunisian security forces were killed, 19 people were injured.

Law enforcement forces, according to official data, managed to eliminate at least 49 militants. "We have almost survived the occupation of the Islamic State. It was scary: we thought that Ben Gardan would be handed over to the militants, " said Mohsen Lechihib, head of the Tunisian General Labor Union in the city.¹⁵

The country's authorities responded to the attack by restoring a state of emergency and imposing a curfew. So far, anti-terrorist special operations are being conducted in many regions of Tunisia to search for and eliminate terrorists, and dozens of people suspected of having links with terrorist organizations have been arrested.

The events in Ben-Gardan have shown that Tunisia is hardly capable of dealing with an open terrorist threat on its own: this is not even a Tunisian-Libyan problem, but a regional one that requires joint multilateral efforts. And the main ally of Tunisia in this struggle is Algeria.

"The security of Tunisia and its borders is the security of Algeria, just as the security of Algeria and its borders is the security of Tunisia," Algerian Interior Minister N. Bedoui said, commenting on the events in the neighboring country16. Algeria and Tunisia have a constant security cooperation in order to combat terrorism, the countries have a common position on the Libyan settlement, they are in favor of a political solution to the situation, strongly rejecting the military option.

Both countries support the establishment of a government of national unity in Libya, as well as efforts aimed at finding a political solution in this country by bringing the points of view of the Libyan parties closer together. Tunisian experts warn: "military intervention against Libya may lead to civil war in Tunisia" and argue that this is the inevitable influx of hundreds of thousands of Libyan refugees, the desire of the Islamist Ennahda party for revenge. "Ennahda leader Rashid Ghannouchi will not hesitate to set Tunis on fire. He has the audacity, envy, money, weapons, mercenaries, foreign allies, and a secret army ... " ¹⁷.

Clearly aware of the vulnerability and fragility of civil peace in Tunisia and the disastrous consequences of a negative scenario, major Western Powers and international organizations support the republic both in word and deed. It is in this vein that Tunisians took the award of the 2015 Nobel Peace Prize to the Tunisian "quartet" * of the national dialogue. "The EU is ready to continue to accompany the Tunisian Republic in its difficult democratic transition period," said Commissioner I. Hahn ¹⁸.

The EU has announced that it will provide 23 million euros in aid to the Tunisian government to support reforms and modernization. In 2016, the amount of economic support from the EU may reach 500 million Tunisian dinars (about $250 million). The EU's assistance to Tunisia will not be limited to the financial sphere only, but also the implementation of projects in the field of vocational training is planned.

During a joint visit to Tunisia with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, World Bank Chairman Jim Yong Kim said that the World Bank is ready to provide decisive support to the World Bank.

* The Tunisian Quartet is a group of four organizations (the Tunisian General Confederation of Labor, the Tunisian League for the Protection of Human Rights, the Tunisian National Order of Lawyers, and the Tunisian Confederation of Industry, Trade, and Handicrafts) that became the central force for building a democratic state in Tunisia after the 2011 Jasmine Revolution.

support for the stabilization of the situation in Tunisia during its difficult transition period. "Now we need to focus on creating jobs for the most vulnerable group of the population - young people, as well as ensure acceptable growth rates in the most needy regions of the country," he said ¹⁹.

France, as Tunisia's closest European partner, also promises to provide support. "Tunisia has made a bold choice in favour of freedom, democracy and pluralism. France is committed to partnering with Tunisia and will finance projects to create new jobs for young people in the North African republic. We will use all the levers to restore positive dynamics in the issue of professional training and employment of the population. In addition, we intend to continue the program of training Tunisian youth in higher educational institutions in France, " said French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault ²⁰.

Along with supporting the Tunisian economy, countries around the world provide assistance to the republic in the military confrontation with the terrorist threat. Thus, the United States provides Tunisia with a loan of $24.9 million to develop an electronic border control system with Libya, conduct training in the Tunisian army and National Guard21. Germany supplies modern equipment to ensure the protection of the Tunisian-Libyan border.

* * *

Thus, of the three Maghreb countries facing the growing threat of terrorism, it is Tunisia that has the most vulnerable position due to the economic crisis, the continuing sympathy of almost half of the population for Islamist parties, and the weakness of the national army and special services.

Algeria is quite actively and successfully fighting terrorism, but factors such as the difficult economic situation due to low oil prices and the state of health of 79-year-old President Abdel-Aziz Bouteflika may pose a threat to its stability.

Morocco, which is pursuing political and socio-economic reforms, is exerting a stabilizing influence on the region, as well as making efforts to spread the values of moderate Islam in North Africa and in the African Sahel.

The globalization of the problem of terrorism puts on the agenda the question of combining efforts to counter this threat. Individual steps taken by Arab countries to combat terrorism have not been decisive. "We need a unanimous, global approach if we are to effectively fight terrorism," said UN Chief Ban Ki-moon, stressing the need for a "new global partnership against violent extremism." ²²

^{Hassan H} 1. Isis is expanding its international reach // The Guardian. 07.12.2015.

² Daech change de tactique // Al Huffington Post Maghreb. 10.03.2016.

^{Merkulov A.} 3. Algeria strengthens security measures / / TASS-online. 17.02.2016.

⁴ 157 terrorists were eliminated in Algeria in 2015 / / TACC-online. 16.01.2016.

^{Caputo S} 5. Immuni dal terrorismo: il segreto dell'Algeria // II Giornale. 26.11.2015.

⁶ A la cour d'appel de Rabat, un jugement sur cinq concernait en 2015 une affaire de terrorisme // Al Huffington Post Maghreb. 18.02.2016.

^{Mamed-zade P} 7. Security forces arrested terrorists in Morocco / / TACC-online. 21.07.2015.

^{Looney R} 8. Morocco Is Running Out of Time // Foreign Policy. 09.07.2015.

^{Mamed-zade P} 9. A terrorist cell has been neutralized in Morocco / / TACC-online. 28.01.2016.

^{Mamed-zade P} 10. Morocco and Spain are effectively cooperating in the fight against terror...

¹¹ Ibid.

^{Mamed-zade P} 12. International Security Forum / / TACC-online. 14.02.2016; see also: Abramova I. O. Afrikanskaya initiativa po borbe s mezhdunarodnom terrorizm [The African Initiative to Combat International Terrorism]. 2016, N 5. (Abramova I.O. 2016. Afrikanskaya initsiativa... // Aziya i Afrika Segodnya. N 5) (in Russian)

^{Ben Abdessamad J} 13. Quelle destinee pour les Tunisiens "djihadistes" de retour de Syrie? // Tunis-Hebdo. 28.09.2015.

¹⁴ For more information on the dynamics of military expenditures in Africa, see: Fituni L. L. Aggressive non-state actors - a new threat to the development of Africa / / Scientific Notes of the IAfr RAS. 2015. N 1 (32). P. 15. (Fituni L. L. 2015. Agressivnie negosudarstvennie aktory-novaya ugroza razvitiyu Afriki / / Ucheniye zapiski Instituta Afriki RAN. N 1 (32)) (in Russian)

¹⁵ Islamic State targets north Africa // Lead. Economy. 17.03.2016 - http://www.vesti-finance.ru/articles/68685

¹⁶ Algeria went over to martial law after the terrorist attack in Tunis / / In-detail.Russian Federation - http://в-деталях.russian Federation / algeria-raised-the-alert-level-in-arms/248316 / 09.03.2016.

^{Mezri Haddad} 17. Libye-Tunisie: une guerre n'arrive jamais seule // L'Expression. 14.02.2016.

^{Merkulov A} 18. The World Bank has declared its readiness to provide decisive support for the stabilization of the situation in Tunisia / / TACC-online. 28.03.2016.

¹⁹ Ibid.

^{Merkulov A} 20. France will finance the creation of new jobs in Tunisia / / TACC-online. 18.03.2016.

^{Merkulov A.} 21. The United States will provide Tunisia with a loan of almost $25 million for the border control system with Libya / / TACC-online. 25.03.2016.

²² Ban Ki-moon: a global approach is needed in the fight against terrorism / / TASS-International Panorama - http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/3161650

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