On December 3, 2014, the Center for Research on Russian-African Relations and Foreign Policy of the Institute of African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences organized a round table "BRICS and Africa: state and Prospects of cooperation". The meeting was attended by researchers from the Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Peoples ' Friendship University of Russia, the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, the Higher School of Economics, and the Moscow State University. Hopkins University (USA), the A. M. Gorchakov Public Diplomacy Foundation, and other Russian and foreign research centers. 25 reports and presentations were made.
In the opening speech of the Deputy. Director of the Institute of Africa Dmitry Bondarenko noted that BRICS has taken an important place in the system of modern international relations and requires increased attention from the scientific community. Dmitry Bondarenko called for a balanced approach to BRICS assessments, analyzing both the pros and cons of its activities, and stressed the need to see differences between the policies of BRICS as a whole and individual member countries of the group, in particular on the African continent. Today, rather, there are projects of individual BRICS countries in various African countries. A unified image of BRICS as an organization has not yet emerged in the minds of Africans.
The participants of the meeting analyzed the results and prospects of BRICS development. Speakers noted the success achieved by the association in its first five-year cycle, which proved to be more significant than the most ardent supporters of the association had expected. The BRICS Business Council and Banking Forum have been established. A new development Bank with a capital of $ 100 billion will soon start operating. and the Pool of foreign exchange reserves is also in the amount of $ 100 billion. As noted by E. N. Korendyasov (IAfr.), BRICS has received wide international recognition. It has become an important factor in the intensification of partnership between the participating countries and the most important global center for finding ways and tools to reform the outdated financial and economic system, which stubbornly refuses to take into account the new role and weight of rising countries in the global economy. The Euro-Atlantic bloc has replaced skepticism in BRICS assessments with concern. However, in the coming decade, the BRICS will have to face more difficult challenges and more challenging environments. It is necessary to achieve sustainable development rates, implement the urgent restructuring of economies, and overcome the stubborn intransigence of developed countries in creating a new architecture of the international financial system and global governance based on due consideration of the increased weight and influence of emerging economies.
Among the problems that BRICS is trying to solve are sustainable development, financial and economic management, investment, trade, technology and innovation, health, agriculture, environment, climate change, food security, etc. She stressed that, given the new role of BRICS as the engine of the global economy, its leaders are striving to achieve international recognition. The BRICS "agenda" includes reform of the UN Security Council, responses to crises and conflicts in various parts of the world. All these issues are important for developing countries, whose interests are protected by the BRICS. BRICS has 20 formats of cooperation: from annual summits, of which there have already been six, to working groups on information on international security, health, agriculture, science, technology, etc. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2039, the BRICS countries will be able to surpass the six leading industrial powers if they develop at the same pace as in the 2000s. However, in the new decade, all BRICS countries, with the exception of South Africa, slowed growth by more than 2% each. This is especially true in Brazil and Russia. There are rather pessimistic forecasts regarding China as the engine of the global economy due to the decline in the growth rate of its economy. Increased geopolitical risks were a negative factor in 2014. The forward movement of the new actor is also hindered by such problems in the BRICS economies as the raw material nature of exports from Russia and Brazil.
E. V. Morozenskaya (IAfr) also attributes the slowdown in the BRICS countries ' GDP growth rates to changes in the industrial and financial policies of developed countries, accompanied by the return of capital from emerging markets. Along with this, there was also a slowdown in the growth rates of sub-Saharan economies. However, in the medium term, according to the IMF forecast, their growth may slightly accelerate while maintaining the existing structure of the economy and exports. The situation may be affected by the strengthening of China's position against the background of a further increase in differences in the economic growth rates of the BRICS countries.
The participants ' reports analyzed the problems associated with increasing trade, economic, scientific and cultural cooperation on a bilateral and multilateral basis between the BRICS member states. V. Yurtaev (RUDN University) noted that education was one of the BRICS priorities. BRICS emphasizes the special importance of working together in the field of education as part of a common effort to create a "knowledge economy", develop human capital, and develop and implement high-tech technologies. The slogan "Live with each other" and the network principle of interaction in the BRICS format become the quintessence of this. The goal of creating a BRICS Network University (BRICS SU) set at the Brazil Summit (2014) is one of the key projects for the strategy of economic cooperation. The goal of the project is to accelerate the crystallization of network interaction centers in partner countries based on universities with a strong scientific, technical and technological component. The Russian concept of network interaction development considers the BRICS countries as an integral part of the cultural and humanitarian component of interaction.
The New BRICS Development Bank (NDB) is designed to facilitate the mobilization of resources of the participating countries for sustainable development projects. Given the growing economic potential of the founding countries, the NDB has every chance in the long term to become an international development institution comparable in terms of capital and scale of lending activities to the institutions of the World Bank Group, especially if the number of member countries (shareholders) and subscription capital of the bank expands. The real competition between the NDB and IBRD lending activities will be especially strong if the revision of the IBRD member countries ' quotas is further delayed and significantly adjusted. According to speakers V. V. Pavlov (IAfr) and V. V. Klishina (Societe Generale Group Bank), the investment strategy of the NDB will consist in forming its loan portfolio for priority financing of projects that contribute to the development of national economies and deeper integration of the BRICS countries, when such projects will not be able to attract sufficient private capital and loans from national development banks of these countries or other development institutions whose permanent members They are the host countries of BRICS.
Assessing the possible prospects of BRICS, E. A. Bragina (IMEMO RAS) compared it with another association - India, Brazil, South Africa (IBSA). It was noted that both associations have an intercontinental character, the participating countries occupy leading positions in their regions, although the scale of influence varies significantly, and at their summits they always support the ideas of South-South cooperation. At the same time, IBSA emphasizes more clearly than BRICS that its principles do not contradict contacts with the countries of the North. Both groups are politicized, but IBSA is characterized by more harmonious relations between the participants than BRICS, where the role of the PRC is growing quite clearly. According to the speaker, the formation of an increasing number of international associations under certain conditions can fragment the world economy, deforming the modern process of globalization.
The presentations addressed various aspects of BRICS relations with African countries.
Noting the rapid growth of bilateral cooperation between BRICS member states and African states, Z. S. Novikova (IAfr) noted the BRICS desire to vigorously seek favorable conditions for access to the continent's natural resources, investment and commodity markets. Thus, there is an acute interest of China in the development of bauxite and energy resources in Africa, due to the rapid development of the aluminum industry in the country in the absence of a sufficient raw material base and the necessary energy supply for production. China is making active efforts to introduce bauxite mining in Guinea. However, many aluminum plants in China run on coal and are unprofitable due to high energy costs, which pushes Beijing to move aluminum production to the African continent.
The problem of the growing presence of BRICS companies in the African markets, primarily China and India, was considered. N. N. Tsvetkova (IB RAS) noted that the BRICS Asian countries have developed their own TNCs operating in innovative sectors of the economy, in particular in the field of ICT; they have "new generation"billionaires. The development of the high-tech ICT sector can serve as one of the most important factors in maintaining the BRICS Asian countries ' economic dynamics, economic growth rates, although less high than in the recent past, but higher than in developed countries, and maintaining their role as "breakthrough" economies. ICT companies from India and China are expanding their presence in Africa. A number of African countries have a comparative advantage in hosting IT and BPO (business process outsourcing) outsourcing businesses. Africa sees BRICS ' attention to the continent's countries as a milestone in diversifying sources of financing for development and an effective factor in reducing dependence on traditional partners and expanding opportunities for maneuvering in the international arena. Referring to the experience of the European Union, African leaders are seeking to create their own financial and credit structures with the help of BRICS, promote development, and provide preferential conditions for the exchange of goods, services, and technologies.
The speakers noted the important role of the BRICS countries in addressing such problems in Africa as sustainable development and transfer of innovative technologies. The sixth BRICS Summit in Fortaleza (Brazil) in 2014 adopted a multilateral agreement on cooperation in innovation aimed at supporting investment in advanced technologies, sustainable energy, infrastructure, and agribusiness. According to L. N. Kalinichenko (IAfr.These decisions continued the line outlined at the fifth BRICS summit on joint financing of projects in the field of "green" economy and infrastructure, including in African countries. The BRICS countries, primarily China, provide financial, technical, technological and other assistance to African countries in the creation of hydroelectric power plants, parks of wind generators, solar installations, enterprises for the production of biofuels, and training of qualified personnel. During the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to South Africa in 2013 to participate in the BRICS summit, an agreement on cooperation between Russia and South Africa in the field of solar energy development was signed. Russian companies are also planning to build solar and diesel-solar power plants in other regions. Using green technologies tested in the BRICS countries, African countries have a chance to reduce the consequences of industrialization that are irreparably harmful to the environment.
G. I. Smirnova (Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences) spoke about BRICS cooperation with Africa in solving the problems of food security of the continent's countries on the example of the Republic of Sudan. The BRICS readiness to cooperate with African countries in the field of agriculture opens up development prospects for the Republic of Sudan. China provided assistance in solving the food problem in the Sudan. Promising for the development of agricultural production
In Sudan, there may be an expansion of cooperation with Brazil. As a leading country in the field of tropical agriculture and the third largest food exporter in the world, Brazil positions itself as an important partner for African countries in achieving food security.
The issues of cooperation between Russia and South Africa in the field of nuclear energy were discussed. Thus, Yu. S. Skubko (IAfr. In September 2014, the Russian company ROSATOM and South Africa's ESCOM concluded a framework agreement providing for Russia's participation in the construction of a number of large nuclear power plants in South Africa using second-and third-generation technologies modified after Fukushima, similar to those used by France in the construction of the only operating nuclear power plant in Africa - in Kuberga. South Africa uses French nuclear technologies, France has trained relevant specialists, and France is ready to build new nuclear power units in this country. It is possible to compete with it only at the expense of 100% lending, for which Russia currently does not have enough funds. Whether the BRICS Development Bank will lend to this project largely depends on China, which is a competitor to Russia in this area. Meanwhile, South Africa has a project frozen in 2010 for financial reasons to create modular nuclear reactors of the fourth generation-small, safe, easy to produce and operate. In the interests of innovative development of both Russia and South Africa, it seems appropriate to jointly resume this promising project.
The military-technical sphere of BRICS cooperation with Africa was also considered. Military-political and military-technical ties are designed to become an essential component of cooperation within the BRICS. E. N. Korendyasov stressed that all BRICS countries are actively implementing programs for the modernization of the armed forces. The volume of purchases of modern weapons systems and military equipment has increased dramatically. BRICS is one of the key players in the global arms and military equipment market. The countries of the association account for up to 35% of global arms exports and over 20% of imports. The predominance of the Russia-China-India triangle in the arms trade is likely to continue until the end of the 2020s. But even now, there is a clear trend towards a reduction in Russia's share in arms imports by India and China. At the same time, Africa is the only region where all BRICS countries seek to increase military - technical cooperation.
The speeches also touched upon such an aspect of BRICS cooperation with Africa as the participation of the group's member countries in resolving conflict and crisis situations on the continent. This problem was considered by G. M. Sidorova (IAfr). on the example of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are more or less involved in the resolution of this conflict situation within the framework of the Peacekeeping Mission in DR Congo. Russia provides military observers, while the rest of the countries have blue helmets. The head of the Mission's military contingent is Brazilian General Carlos Alberto dos Santos Cruz. In 2013, it included an Operational Intervention Brigade (OSB), which included three military contingents from South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi.
Speakers paid great attention to assessing the motives and degree of interest in the further formation and development of BRICS of each of the participating countries.
Alexander Borzov (RUDN University) presented a report on Brazilian politics. Brazil claims to be a bridge between BRICS and Latin American countries. Within the framework of the BRICS summit, the BRICS-UNASUR summit was held in Fortaleza, where the leaders of Cuba, Costa Rica and Mexico were present. During the discussion, development issues were discussed, including the debt crisis in Argentina, and new opportunities that will appear in connection with the creation of the BRICS Bank. Brazil is also attracted by the opportunity to enter the Asian markets of goods, services and investments, and convert its growing trade and economic power into a factor of increasing its international influence. At the same time, there is a certain caution of Brazilian diplomacy in the Brics direction. The reason is the fear expressed by the opposition to the current regime that a bias towards cooperation within the BRICS framework could damage strategically more important relations with the "main partners" - the United States and the EU. At the same time, the decisions of the Fortaleza summit were extremely important for the outcome of the presidential elections in Brazil. President Dilma Rousseff, who won the second round, continues her foreign policy, which implies a course independent of the United States, including expanding cooperation within the BRICS.
Russia is a consistent supporter of consolidating the BRICS, turning it into a full-fledged mechanism for coordinating and coordinating positions on current and strategic issues of world politics, and institutionalizing the BRICS. To this end, the Russian side proposes to adopt the association's development strategy and a joint investment cooperation roadmap (E. N. Korendyasov).
V. A. Usov (IAfr) noted that Indian politicians and experts do not question the importance of India's participation in BRICS, the value of which, in their view, has greatly increased after South Africa joined it. The results of the parliamentary elections in India in the spring of 2014 and the transition of power to a new government led by Narendra Modi marked an important milestone in the modern development of India, practically ending the virtual monopoly on power of the Indian National Congress party, which led the country with short breaks for more than 50 years. Despite the postponement of the India-Africa summit from 2014 to 2015, experts believe that with the coming to power of the Modi government, Indian-African cooperation has received a good impetus for further development. Since the beginning of the XXI century. India is firmly among Africa's main partner countries. It has invested heavily in developing the continent's mineral resources, improving its infrastructure, and developing human capital. India's main advantages in Africa over other BRICS countries are its advanced information technology and service sector. An indicator of the success of Indian policy in Africa can be considered the level of trade turnover, which increased from $ 3 billion to $ 70 billion between 2001 and 2013. USA. Simultaneously with the sharp growth of economic ties, a new approach of the Government of India is being formed
to the Indian diaspora. The Indian diaspora is now perceived as a valuable resource and competitive advantage for India. The new approach was initiated at the turn of the century by the Bharat Janata Party, which became the backbone of the Modi-led government and triumphantly returned to power in May 2014, 10 years after losing the 2004 parliamentary elections.
China sees BRICS as a new, alternative source for investing its foreign exchange reserves, as a tool for increasing stability in the international arena and strengthening the opportunities of developing countries. The future of the BRICS is largely determined by China's capabilities. In economic terms, according to T. L. Deutsch, China occupies a leading position in the group: it has the highest credit rating and the largest share in total GDP. The economic dominance of China in the group is reflected in the volume of contributions to the Pool of foreign exchange Reserves: investments of China - $ 41 billion, Brazil, Russia and India - $ 18 billion each, and South Africa - $ 5 billion. China also plays a leading role in the creation of the NDB, which may help accelerate the reform of its financial system, as it will allow commercial banks to expand their activities abroad. China has become the main partner for the BRICS countries. It has enjoyed strong growth rates for three decades, but today the Chinese economy is experiencing a downturn, which may have negative consequences for the BRICS, as well as for Africa, given Beijing's important role on the continent.
The Republic of South Africa expects to use its participation in the group to establish itself as a regional and continental power, as well as to expand the position of South African companies both on the continent and in other BRICS countries. At the round table, Alexander Shelepin (HSE) presented an analysis of the results of South Africa's BRICS presidency, which formally began with the summit in Durban on March 15-17, 2013 and ended in 2014 with the BRICS Heads of State and Government meeting in Fortaleza. To assess the effectiveness of the presidency, a model was used to balance the external conditions and national priorities of the chair country in informal institutions such as BRICS, G20, and G7. Studies have shown that significant factors in the effectiveness of the South African presidency were the commitment to implement the decisions and action plan agreed at the Durban summit, as well as the desire to use BRICS to achieve the development goals of African countries and the leadership potential of South Africa on the continent.
BRICS causes a mixed reaction in the international arena. According to A. Y. Urnov (IAfr), the formation of BRICS from the very beginning did not fit into the American concept of a unipolar world. The existence of this association hinders the implementation of Washington's global hegemonic plans. However, in official documents and statements, Americans try to avoid the topic of BRICS. There is no doubt that the United States will do everything possible to undermine BRICS, incite contradictions between its participants, and create difficulties for the implementation of BRICS plans, including in the matter of the NDB's activities. According to most estimates, out of the five BRICS members, the United States has the most relaxed relations with South Africa. At the same time, the IMF welcomed the decision to establish the BRICS Bank and expressed its readiness to cooperate with its structures.
O. S. Kulkova (IAfr) noted that political and expert discussions in the EU on the role of BRICS in Africa and prospects for interaction with the group are conducted within the framework of three main paradigms: deterrence, competition and cooperation. At the same time, if earlier there was more skepticism and criticism on the part of the EU about the BRICS activities, now, despite the continued caution in their assessments, the leadership and expert community of the EU countries seem to realize that the BRICS countries need to be considered, as well as to look for ways of interaction. At the current stage, the EU recognizes the important role that the BRICS countries play in Africa. The position of the EU leadership on this issue is determined by the fact that BRICS is an influential network structure, whose importance in the global economy and politics is growing rapidly. It should be emphasized that the EU and each of the BRICS countries have developed a strategic cooperation relationship. However, the geopolitical situation that has changed in recent years compared to the beginning of the 2000s has set the EU the task of revising relations with the BRICS countries and filling them with new practical content.
The round table participants ' views on the content of BRICS-Africa relations at the current stage and possible prospects for BRICS cooperation with the continent's countries led to the following conclusions.
Over the past period of BRICS activity, its cooperation with Africa has achieved some success. This was largely due to the relatively high development rates of both the BRICS and African countries. In addition, BRICS has embodied the objective trend towards a multipolar world, becoming a center of attraction for African countries that have become disillusioned with the Washington consensus philosophy and are striving for coordinated financial regulatory reform and transformation of global governance institutions based on a new balance of power.
However, the situation is changing. The BRICS economies ' growth rates have slowed. The threats of unmanageable processes in the system of international relations and the aggravation of contradictions along the lines of "North-South" and "West-East"have increased. This gives grounds for forecasts that BRICS will not be able to achieve its goals, which was reflected in a number of speeches, in particular by I. Natuffe (Canada, visiting researcher at the Institute of Africa), who expressed concerns about the future of BRICS as a cohesive and effective association.
Under the current circumstances, the BRICS countries are reviewing their development strategies. Russia starts implementing the "new industrialization" program. India also emphasizes the acceleration of industrial development, considering the role of the service sector (over 40%) to be excessive, which in the context of growing urbanization is not able to provide jobs for displaced people from villages to cities. In China, the domestic market and a growing middle class are increasingly influencing the growth and structural evolution of the economy. Brazil is becoming an important driving force in Latin America. The question arises as to whether new economies will be able to recognize the increased responsibility and participate constructively in the governance of the international economic and financial systems.
Russia is optimistic about the future of BRICS. Its strategic calculations for this merger are still justified. At the initiative of the Russian Federation, a strategy for developing multilateral cooperation of the BRICS countries and a roadmap for investment cooperation are being developed. These proposals will form the basis for the 7th BRICS Summit in Ufa on July 8-9, 2015.
Although today the BRICS countries are more likely to be competitors and sometimes rivals in Africa, they intend to strengthen cooperation and expand its areas, using their own advantages in implementing sustainable development projects. Taking into account the growing role of Africa in the global economy and politics in the medium term, the BRICS countries intend to keep in the center of their attention the development of cooperation with the countries of the continent on the basis of mutual interest.
African countries highly appreciate the opportunities offered by cooperation with BRICS, which provides a winning alternative to Africa's politically driven relations with traditional Western partners and helps it address sustainable development challenges.
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