Recently, a well-known African scholar, Professor, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Deputy Director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University, Leonid Vladimirovich Geveling, was invited to one of the online magazines of the Internet to answer users ' questions about Africa. Many questions were asked, and the scientist tried to answer all of them in detail. The result is a rather colorful, but nevertheless very interesting picture. From it, you can get an idea of what issues and problems, one way or another related to the current situation on the African continent, are of interest to the average Russian citizen - from among those whom we call "the man from the street".

Given that the majority of our magazine's readership is made up of specialists in Oriental and African studies, we considered it appropriate to publish a" paper version " of L. V. Geveling's communication with Internet users, omitting the repeated questions and answers on the subject, as well as those of limited interest.

WHAT'S NEW ON THE BLACK CONTINENT ?

Alexander Kondrashev:

- Could you briefly describe the current economic situation in Africa and its main regions?

- In recent decades, the economy of African countries has experienced significant ups and downs. From the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s, the economies of sub-Saharan Africa experienced a severe downturn. Until the mid-1990s, there was stagnation. Then there were changes for the better. The macroeconomic situation has improved, economic growth has accelerated, and the inflation rate has decreased. Reproduction processes have become more stable. According to the calculations of the Russian scientist-Africanist Professor V. Melyantsev, the average annual GDP growth rate in Tropical Africa in the 1980s was 1.6%, in the 1990s-2.5%, and in the period from 2000 to the present - 4.9%.

In the pre-crisis years, Africa's economy grew at an accelerating pace thanks to improvements in business management and more sober economic policies. The favorable situation on the world markets, where prices for mineral raw materials and agricultural products from Africa were growing, also played a role. Investment in the continent's economy has increased slightly. However, there were still many factors holding back economic growth. A real structural and technological adjustment had not taken place by 2009. The economic infrastructure still leaves much to be desired. African Governments are not too concerned about creating a good investment climate and attracting external financial resources.

- In addition, I am interested in whether it is growing in African countries (and in which ones?) standard of living in recent years? And if it grows, will it become a general trend for the entire continent?

- Despite some success of sub-Saharan African States in economic construction, by the middle of this decade, the average annual growth rate of per capita GDP there did not reach the 7% required to overcome poverty. On the eve of the current crisis, the per capita GDP of sub-Saharan Africa, unfortunately, did not even reach the level of thirty years ago. The economic situation of the majority of the population remained extremely difficult, although in some strata of society the level of income increased markedly, as did the level of satisfaction of the needs of the wealthy part of the population. First of all, these processes were typical for countries with large oil reserves, but a small population. It is regrettable to recognize that the crisis, as it spreads in Africa, will inevitably lead to a decline in the standard of living of many Africans.

N:

- Which sectors and states of Black Africa show the best success in economic development? And how are they affected by the current crisis?

- In Africa, the manufacturing industry, construction, electricity generation and some other industries are developing quite rapidly. However, there are certain difficulties in their development. For example, the share of manufacturing in GDP has been steadily declining almost everywhere over the past 10 to 12 years. One of the reasons is the exceptionally aggressive economic strategy of Asian firms, which has flooded Africa with cheaper and often higher-quality imported goods. In a number of African countries, the local textile and food industries were simply stifled. Competitive information

the struggle with Arab, Indian and especially Chinese producers was lost by the Africans. As a result, many factories have closed, and unemployment has risen significantly in some States...

Now about the countries that have shown success in the economy. Two blocks of States can be distinguished here. The first is the countries that export oil-Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, Gabon and some others. They consistently showed high growth rates. The second block consists of countries that did not supply oil and gas to the world market, but managed to diversify their economies. These are Ghana in West Africa, Uganda and Tanzania in East Africa, Namibia in South-West Africa, Botswana in South Africa and the small state of Mauritius, located in the western Indian Ocean.

Joe:

"Why is everyone so poor in Africa?"

"Well, that's not quite true. If you recall a sad joke, then "the poorest countries are ruled by the richest people." Some members of the African elite could easily take a worthy place in the annual list of billionaires published by Forbes magazine. Consider the former Zaire leader Mobutu or the Nigerian dictator Abacha. In the form of bribes, illegal entrepreneurship, and outright embezzlement, both leaders have accumulated billions of dollars. Unfortunately, there are many such" politicians " in Africa. I described such a public in detail in my book Kleptocracy (The Power of Thieves),* which examined the African model of political and economic corruption, as well as the spread of the shadow economy and organized crime on the continent. And poverty is often the other side of wealth. In sub-Saharan Africa, by the middle of this decade, the number of critically poor people (i.e., those who spend less than $ 1 a day) exceeded 300 million. The number of people on the African continent whose daily per capita consumption is between $ 1 and $ 2 is at least 230 million. As a result, approximately 2/5 of the population is forced to lead an essentially beggarly lifestyle. And we are talking about the pre-crisis period. Huge income differentiation and deep social inequality are the grim companions of Africa's social development.

Even last fall, Africans had a tentative hope that the economic crisis would pass the continent's countries. It was believed that the banking system in Africa (except for South Africa and North Africa), which is relatively poorly connected to the global economy and is very conservative, would withstand the "crisis storms". The state almost everywhere strictly regulates banking activities, so there is practically no dubious mortgage lending, the derivatives market does not function, and local investors have not acquired dubious "financial products".

However, the hope that "will carry", was not justified. Already at the end of last year, African countries fully felt all the threats of the current crisis. First, the demand for raw materials, which serves as Africa's main economic trump card, began to fall sharply. Moreover, this affected both mineral and agricultural raw materials. Even relatively rich countries have had to adjust their economic strategies and recalculate their budgets. For example, the budget of Nigeria was initially calculated based on the cost of a barrel of oil at $ 61, and the price, as we know, fell much lower. In the future, money transfers to the home countries of African migrants will probably decrease, and financial and economic assistance from Western and rich developing countries will decrease. There is a danger that even humanitarian aid will be seriously reduced, which can lead to sad consequences-hunger, disease and chaos in the economy.

Novel:

- I have heard that in a number of African countries, revenues from mineral extraction (except for oil in Angola and partially diamonds in the south) go almost entirely to the pockets of developed countries in Europe and the United States. Is it true?

- This situation really took place, but, perhaps, only in the first years after the declaration of independence of African countries. For example, the leading oil companies (Shell, British Petroleum, etc.) were in the "state within a state"position in African countries. Often, they paid only small rent payments and contributions for the exploitation of natural resources to the treasury. This situation began to change as the political sovereignty and economic independence of African States strengthened. The local elite also began to claim a share of the economic pie. Improved control of law enforcement agencies, the media, and non-governmental organizations has become a deterrent to squandering public resources. The greed of multinational corporations and local kleptocrats was also limited by international law and influential international institutions.

- Is there any prospect of the appearance of "African tigers" like "Asian", at least one or two (except for South Africa)? In general, what post-independence sub-Saharan countries can be considered relatively successful economically and politically - and why? I've heard that one of the most successful and successful ones is a Bot-

* Geveling L. V. Kleptocracy (Socio-political dimension of corruption and negative economy). Moscow, Gumanitarii Publ., 2001.

Swann's opinion that Mozambique and Namibia are developing dynamically after the end of the civil war - is this true?

- Both Botswana, Mozambique, and Namibia really showed good economic results - by African standards - until recently. As for the "African tigers", in the 1980s they hoped to see, for example, Ghana. However, these hopes were not realized. In other words, the" economic tigers " that are common in Asia are not yet found in Africa...

Elena:

- Is it possible that some of the African countries will suddenly start showing high economic growth rates?

- It is difficult to assume that this can happen in a crisis. Although in Africa there are sparsely populated countries with huge reserves of valuable mineral raw materials. So they can suddenly get ahead. Recall that, for example, Gabon, where the population is small and there is a lot of oil, at one time showed rapid GDP growth, the per capita level of which was very impressive. This, of course, does not mean that the people of Gabon became rich and lived well. The national wealth of the country was largely "redistributed" by representatives of local elites...

But theoretically, such "breakthroughs", of course, can happen.

Sergei:

- Tell us about China's expansion in the South African region. What consequences can it have?

- China is pursuing an extremely active economic policy in Africa. In the first half of the 20th century, ethnic Chinese who were not citizens of the PRC operated in African countries, especially coastal ones. And since the 1980s, Chinese people from mainland China have also been working there.

The trade turnover of African countries with China now significantly exceeds the $ 100 billion threshold and is not comparable to the trade turnover of Russia and many other countries. The Chinese have penetrated literally all the pores of the African economy. This includes the production of many types of industrial products, construction, creation of infrastructure facilities, trade in consumer and other goods. Some African states, their leaders and business circles are even afraid of the economic expansion of the Chinese and seek to limit their presence. This is not always possible, because the Chinese have a clear investment program and a well-established system of contacts with local politicians and businessmen. Beijing "on behalf of the Chinese people" makes generous gifts to African countries. "Gifts" are usually public buildings or roads. China is going to settle in Africa in earnest and for a long time. In addition, taking into account the lessons of the crisis, the PRC decided to replenish and update its strategic reserves of raw materials. And Africa in this sense is a great investment.

V.:

- Are there any prospects for the agricultural sector of African countries due to the growing popularity of biofuels?

- The agricultural sector of African states is very backward by today's standards. Modern methods of doing business and the latest technologies are not used there - with rare exceptions. Agriculture in African countries works more for export, focusing on the cultivation of coffee, cocoa, tea and other similar crops. A small number of food products are produced to cover their own needs. It is still too early to talk about industrial biofuel production in Africa...

Vladimir:

- Will economically developed countries move the production of certain goods and products to Africa in order to reduce their cost?

- It is also too early to talk about the mass transfer of production facilities to Africa in order to reduce the cost of finished products. This process should have such prerequisites as a well-developed economic infrastructure, a sufficiently large number of well-trained personnel, a high quality of business management, as well as an appropriate culture of industrial production.

Alexander:

- Is it possible in the foreseeable future to provide large-scale support to African countries from wealthy African-Americans and Afro-Latinos, similar to the support provided by the Jewish diaspora to Israel? If so, can this phenomenon dramatically change the economic situation in Africa?

- In principle, this is possible. It is known that Liberia as a sovereign state appeared in the XIX century. It is thanks to the return of African Americans to their native African soil. But right now, I don't think this trend has a good perspective. Unlike the Jewish diaspora, which really actively helps Israel, the African diaspora, both in economic and financial terms, unfortunately, is quite passive.

V.:

- What are the origins of political instability on the African continent?

- Although the number of armed conflicts in Africa has significantly decreased, the social development of countries here is really not particularly stable. If in the XIX and in the first half of the XX centuries Latin America held the world palm in coups d'etat, then in the second half of the XX century. this championship passed to Africa. The military overthrew civilian governments, and in some countries repeatedly.

Along with the civil - military confrontation,

Racial, ethnic and tribal diversity of the population, regional confrontation, and serious religious confrontation remain serious obstacles to stabilization. In Africa, they practice Islam, Christianity, and numerous local cults. There are so-called Afro-Christian churches and sects that include fundamentalist and other organizations whose activities are officially prohibited.

At the end of the XX century. There was still hope that military coups and internecine wars, including ethnic and religious ones, would come to naught in the medium term. However, since the middle of this decade, Africans seem to be returning to this sad practice. There are increasingly reports in the media that an uprising has taken place in such and such an African country, a coup in another, a head of state has been killed in a third, or a wave of ethnic clashes has swept through. So it seems to me premature to talk about complete stability on the continent, even in the foreseeable future.

Leonid:

Now in many regions of Africa, there are constant clashes on the basis of ethnic (or rather, tribal) contradictions. It seems to me that this is a direct consequence of the preservation of tribal relations in the social sphere on the continent. Is it possible in this situation to build a more or less modern capitalist economy and create stable democratic governments? What should be done to stabilize the situation?

- Tribal relations are still preserved in some places, but they have long ceased to be the dominant system in Africa. Tribal conflicts are also becoming a thing of the past. In terms of politics, African countries should certainly develop political pluralism and elements of civil society.

Of course, it is generally unrealistic to expect that in the near future African states will establish democratic regimes in the classical, Western sense. But the process of democratization in Africa may well be developing. I am referring, for example, to the establishment of multi-party systems, the presence of a free democratic opposition and independent mass media, and the turnover of state leadership. These elements of the democratic system, plus civil society, plus influential non-governmental organizations-all this creates prerequisites for stabilization in Africa. In the economic sphere, such transformations will, of course, reduce the risks for foreign and local investors.

I think that African countries should not rely entirely on the export of goods and products and on foreign financial assistance. They need to diversify their economic ties and cooperate not with one country, say, the former metropolis, China or the United States, but with many states. Undoubtedly, we should work to improve the structure of exports, reduce the share of consumed imports, and train highly qualified personnel. But most importantly, we need to prepare the ground for structural economic reforms and encourage technological changes in every possible way.

A. M. Kosmopletov:

- What is the probability of South Sudan seceding in 2011? If the secession and resolution of the border issue is peaceful, what impact can this have on the resolution of other ethnic conflicts in the world?

- The problem of Sudan is a real "knot of contradictions" in modern Africa. The country is on the verge of a split. If I were offered a bet on whether Sudan would remain a united country or the South would gain independence, I would bet on secession. As far as I know, many people in Sudan have come to terms with the fact that this problem needs to be addressed radically, as it remains in limbo for too long. Whether this is good or bad is a special question.

As you know, the borders of African countries were formed by colonialists. As a result, some ethnic communities were divided into different States. However, bad borders are better than no borders at all. There are a lot of ethnic groups living in Africa, and if everything is left to its own devices, the continent may simply fall apart in political terms. This will be the process of Balkanization, which is already known to the world, i.e. the disintegration of the states of one region into many small countries.

Africa's political development may face the worst-case scenario of Balkanization. The continent faces the threat of disintegration into hundreds of formally "sovereign" micro-states. This prospect was opposed by the majority of African politicians from the stands of the Organization of African Unity and the African Union. Although there are no rules without exceptions. Thus, at one time, political independence was granted to Eritrea, which for a long time fought for separation from Ethiopia, and this event was generally evaluated positively by the world community.

Andrey:

- Which countries in Africa, in your opinion, are potential leaders in their regions? Can South Africa, for example, become a real political leader in non-Arab Africa?

- There are several countries in Africa that can claim to be regional leaders. In the north of the continent, this is, of course, Egypt. In South Africa - of course, South Africa, in West Africa - Nigeria. For Central and East Africa, it is more difficult to identify leaders. If not for the internecine war and economic devastation, the Central African leader probably would have become De-

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In East Africa, Kenya, Tanzania or another country may eventually take the position of a sub-regional leader-time will tell. Today, the key states in sub-Saharan Africa are South Africa and Nigeria, sometimes referred to as regional superpowers. There was a time when they, however, implicitly competed for the position of "regional leader". Now South Africa, which is included in the "Big Twenty", seems to have passed Nigeria in this race.

Leonid:

- What do you think about "black racism", which, according to the media, is characteristic of the social and racial situation in South Africa?

- "Black racism "(or "reverse racism") is not a new phenomenon. It is common both in the United States and in other countries where there are impressive contingents of people belonging to different races. Some elements of" black racism " also exist in South Africa. In part, this phenomenon was caused by the long existence of white racism and became a kind of reaction to it. Sometimes "black racism" takes extremist forms. As far as I know, the main political organizations in South Africa have a negative attitude towards such forms of racial confrontation.

Joseph:

- I want to ask you a few questions about a country that I have long been interested in - the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 1) How does poor little Rwanda, which has suffered a terrible massacre with millions of refugees, manage to dominate its larger and more resource-rich neighbor for many years? 2) Why can't the leaders of the Congo create a normal army and knock out uninvited guests from the country-there seem to be a lot of resources, people too? 3) In the Congo, fighting continues unabated - is it just ethnic hostility or a struggle for the minerals that the Congo is so rich in? 4) Why do they keep such a large contingent of UN troops in the Congo, while the bloody events in other countries do not receive such attention?

- The DRC is indeed one of the largest and richest African states. But this country has a difficult fate. Ethnic and regional strife, which persists amid a deep economic crisis, is one of the reasons why there is no harmony and peace in the Congo. It is also not easy to create a combat - ready army and dislodge non-Congolese people from the Congo. This is partly because people from the Tutsi and Hutu ethnic groups support their "tribesmen" regardless of where they were born.

The ethnic basis of the conflict is complemented and exacerbated by the military and political interests of neighboring countries and the desire of some political forces to profit from the natural resources of the Congo. Finally, it cannot be discounted that Africa has developed a peculiar "culture of violence", because wars have been waged here for decades. Generations of people have grown up who have never seen anything but war in their lives and consider violence, murder, terror, and robbery to be normal, almost legal. This culture of violence has spread to almost all regions and ethnic communities of the Congo. It should be added that during the years of Mobutu's rule, the country was gripped by rampant corruption and crime, while the democratization of political life was hindered by all possible means. Various political forces inside and outside the country did not fail to use this circumstance.

It should also be emphasized that in Africa, ethnopolitical groups are also at war with each other in order to establish control over areas rich in minerals or over important economic objects. For example, over areas where diamonds, gold, and oil are mined. After all, the war needs to be financed, weapons, food and everything necessary for the rebel army must be bought. I'm not even talking about the huge self-enrichment of the leaders of military-political groups.

Various international organizations are trying to stop the rebels ' economic activities. For this purpose, for example, bans are imposed on the purchase of diamonds mined in hot spots. After all, modern experts can easily determine by chemical composition where a particular diamond was mined, whether in Sierra Leone, Angola, Namibia or South Africa. The global diamond market is now difficult to deceive.

UN peacekeeping is often criticized from both the "right" and "left". The effectiveness of the" blue helmets", of course, raises questions. However, it is hardly necessary to abandon the presence of peacekeepers in countries where there is a real threat of renewed massacres against political rivals, and ethnic cleansing is taking on hypertrophied proportions. I also believe that peacekeepers are not effective enough, their operations are not always well designed and often very "capital-intensive". But it should be borne in mind that in many African countries where the crisis has reached its highest boiling point, peacekeepers are the last hope for the population. If there are no peacekeepers from the UN (however, there are also peacekeepers from regional organizations in Africa, for example, from the Economic Community of West African States - ECOWAS), this or that African community may simply be cut out. We know from the history of internecine wars in post-colonial Africa that hundreds of thousands, and sometimes millions, of people died as a result of such conflicts. Consider the deaths of 2 million people as a result of the war between the central Government of Nigeria and the forces of the so-called Republic of Biafra.

(The ending follows)

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