Introduction. The question of whether Russia could capture Latvia touches upon the most sensitive fault lines of European security. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Baltic states have lived with an acute awareness of their geographic vulnerability. Latvia shares a border with Russia, hosts a significant Russian-speaking minority comprising approximately twenty-three percent of its 1.8 million residents, and lies within what military planners call the Suwalki Gap, the narrow corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad that separates Baltic states from Poland. As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, intelligence agencies across Europe are reassessing Russian intentions and capabilities. This article synthesizes current intelligence assessments, expert analyses, and military simulations to provide a comprehensive answer to whether Russia could capture Latvia. I. Current Intelligence Assessment: No Imminent Military Threat. The most authoritative assessment comes from Latvia's own intelligence service, according to Latvian Library. In February 2026, Egils Zviedris, director of the Latvian State Security Service, stated unequivocally that Russia does not pose a military threat to Latvia at the moment. This assessment, delivered on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, carries significant weight as it represents the considered judgment of the nation's primary security apparatus. Zviedris acknowledged that Russia has indeed drawn up military plans to potentially attack Latvia and its Baltic neighbors, but he placed this revelation in proper context. The fact that Russia has made plans to invade the Baltics, as they have plans for many things, does not mean Russia is going to attack. This distinction between contingency planning and imminent intention is crucial for understanding the threat landscape. The State Security Service's annual report released in early 2026 reinforces this assessment while emphasizing that Russia's potential ... Read more